2008-10-02 USER

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Monster Employment Index (Sep 8)

Survey n/a
Actual 160.00
Prior 159.00
Revised n/a

 
Counter trend move higher?

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Monster Employment Index MoM (Sep 8)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.6%
Prior 1.3%
Revised n/a

 
Slightly positive.

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Initial Jobless Claims (Sep 27)

Survey 475K
Actual 497K
Prior 493K
Revised 496K

 
Still high, but subtract maybe 50,000 for hurricanes and maybe the Boeing strike as well.

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Continuing Jobless Claims (Sep 20)

Survey 3550K
Actual 3591K
Prior 3542K
Revised 3543K

 
This was leveling off until the extended benefits package took effect, and has resumed its climb since.

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Sep 27)

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RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual -17.76%
Prior -17.15%
Revised n/a

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RPX Composite 28dy Index (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual 224.28
Prior 230.00
Revised n/a

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Factory Orders YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.2%
Prior 4.7%
Revised n/a

 
Still trending up year over year, but combined with other recent data doesn’t look good.

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Factory Orders MoM (Aug)

Survey -3.0%
Actual -4.0%
Prior 1.3%
Revised 0.7%

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Factory Orders TABLE (Aug)

 
Defense keeping this from being a lot worse.

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Factory Orders TABLE 2 (Aug)

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Factory Orders TABLE 3 (Aug)

 
Shipments down, unfilled orders up.

Karim writes:

  • Initial claims rise 1k to 497k, with 40-50k still accounted for by hurricanes (4wk avg 474k).

  • Continuing claims, not effected by hurricanes, rise another 48k to new cycle high of 3542k (4wk avg 3528k).

  • Continuing claims more highly correlated to duration of unemployment and wage demands.

  • Consensus NFP tomorrow is -105k; based on claims, Conf Board and ISM surveys, risks seem more in -150k area.


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