- MBA Mortgage Applications
- Bloomberg Global Confidence
- Consumer Price Index
- Housing Starts
- Building Permits
- Industrial Production
- Capacity Utilization
MBAVPRCH Index (Apr 11)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 381.6 |
| Prior | 384.7 |
| Revised | n/a |
Holding in its new, lower range.
MBAVREFI Index (Apr 11)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 2866.0 |
| Prior | 2724.7 |
| Revised | n/a |
Doing ok in this prime time for resets, which are peaking and then falling off.
Bloomberg Global Confidence (Apr)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 14.54 |
| Prior | 13.08 |
| Revised | n/a |
Still down, but signs of a bottom.
In my humble opinion, inflation is ripping, and the Fed’s in a very bad place. April’s food and energy price hikes, along with hosts of others, and the weaker USD all are pointing to an upward surge for prices on a forward looking basis.The Fed’s forecasting models should be showing higher inflation as well.And futures markets continue to be an unreliable forecasting tool for the Fed.
Consumer Price Index MoM (Mar)
| Survey | 0.3% |
| Actual | 0.3% |
| Prior | 0.0% |
| Revised | n/a |
CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (Mar)
| Survey | 0.2% |
| Actual | 0.2% |
| Prior | 0.0% |
| Revised | n/a |
Consumer Price Index YoY (Mar)
| Survey | 4.0% |
| Actual | 4.0% |
| Prior | 4.0% |
| Revised | n/a |
CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY (Mar)
| Survey | 2.4% |
| Actual | 2.4% |
| Prior | 2.3% |
| Revised | n/a |
From Karim:
Headline/Core divergence->limited passthrough
- Headline 0.343% and stays at 4% y/y
- Core rises 0.152% (after 0.04% last month), showing limited pass-through from headline and even more limited pass-through from wholesale level (PPI from yday).
- Core rises from 2.3% to 2.4%, equates to about 1.9-2.0% on core PCE basis due to measurement differences
- Food up 0.2% and gas up 1.3%
- OER up 0.2%, apparel down 1.3%, vehicles down 0.1%
- Lodging away from home down 0.6% and medical up only 0.1%, a bit below trend
Housing starts not looking good. The glimmer of hope is that prior months have been revised up for the last two reports, so there’s a chance this number could be revised substantially as well.
Housing Starts (Mar)
| Survey | 1010K |
| Actual | 947K |
| Prior | 1065K |
| Revised | 1075K |
Building Permits (Mar)
| Survey | 970K |
| Actual | 927K |
| Prior | 978K |
| Revised | 984K |
From Karim:
Housing data shows drag continuing with at least the same intensity
- Starts down 11.9%, boding poorly for current GDP
- Permits down 5.8%, boding poorly for future GDP
- Best news is not adding to inventories
Industrial Production (Mar)
| Survey | -0.1% |
| Actual | 0.3% |
| Prior | -0.5% |
| Revised | -0.7% |
May be due to exports, which are keeping GDP and employment muddling through
Capacity Utilization (Mar)
| Survey | 80.3% |
| Actual | 80.5% |
| Prior | 80.9% |
| Revised | 80.3% |
Staying too high for the typical recession.