MBA Mortgage Applications (Feb 29)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 3.0% |
| Prior | -19.2% |
| Revised | n/a |
Refi’s bouncing back some.
MBAVPRCH Index (Feb 29)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 363.1 |
| Prior | 358.1 |
| Revised | n/a |
This seems to be drifting lower with time.
Might be loss of market share to banks.
MBAVREFI (Feb 29)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 2569.0 |
| Prior | 2458.9 |
| Revised | n/a |
As above.
Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Feb)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | -14.2% |
| Prior | 19.1% |
| Revised | n/a |
Doesn’t show weakness in the labor markets other numbers show.
Doesn’t get much attention.
ADP Employment Change (Feb)
| Survey | 18K |
| Actual | -23K |
| Prior | 130K |
| Revised | 119K |
Drifting lower over time. May indicate payrolls are going to be in the 25,000 range. On Friday the January number could be revised up and a low number reported for February. This happened with the February report – December revised up quite a bit and January reported down.
Nonfarm Productivity (4Q F)
| Survey | 1.8% |
| Actual | 1.9% |
| Prior | 1.8% |
| Revised | n/a |
Seems to go with GDP.
Unit Labor Costs (4Q F)
| Survey | 2.1% |
| Actual | 2.6% |
| Prior | 2.1% |
| Revised | n/a |
These are now moving up to more nearly match import prices, which functionally are unit labor costs as well as we’ve outsourced labor intensive content.
The Fed watches this closely as when it moves up the inflation cat is out of the bag.
Factory Orders (Jan)
| Survey | -2.5% |
| Actual | -2.5% |
| Prior | 2.3% |
| Revised | 2.0% |
As expected, seems to be in a range.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite (Feb)
| Survey | 47.3 |
| Actual | 49.3 |
| Prior | 44.6 |
| Revised | n/a |
Low, but a bounce from last month, as I expected then. Weak but not recession levels, and prices still too firm for comfort.