Year over year export growth is looking strong and today’s Dec number revises Q4 GDP estimates to up 1% (vs initial government report of up 0.6%).

Also note that Q4 lost 1.25% as inventories built in Q3 were drawn down. Smooth the inventory numbers for Q3/Q4 and that implies Q3 would have been up 3.65% and Q4 up 2.25%.

This also supports the upwardly revised December payroll number.

The likelihood of strong January exports is one factor that leads me to suspect the January employment number will be revised up as well.

And if exports continue to grow at current rates though Q1 it will also be higher than expected, with exports continuing to pick up the slack from housing.

YoY Export Growth

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