Familiar pattern:

Similar pattern- covid dip, bounce, fade:

Remember all the talk about how all the money printing stuff after the crash and for covid, etc. was going to trash the $US, etc.?
It’s not that easy to forecast:

This is only through July. Seems to turn down in front of recessions, but the data
is from two months back so by the time you see the index turn down the recession
is probably already well underway:

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