Small business survey, JOLTS

No sign of Trumped up expectations fading here:

Hires fell, which most are saying indicates a lack of supply of workers. But the low wage growth and low participation rates tell me it’s more likely about low aggregate demand:


Job openings rose sharply in June, to 6.163 million from 5.702 million in May. Hires, however, fell sharply, to 5.356 million from 5.459 million. This data set can be volatile but the underlying theme is a separation between openings and hiring which points to tightness in the labor market and the risk, at least theoretically, of wage inflation.

Looks to me like ‘hires’ tend to lead openings: