A forecast for tomorrow’s employment report:
ADP Employment Report
The May employment report isn’t expected to be very strong but it may not prove, in contrast to expectations, to be any weaker than April, at least based on ADP’s estimate for private payrolls which comes in at 173,000 vs ADP’s revised 166,000 for April. The Econoday consensus for private payrolls in tomorrow’s government report is noticeably lower, at 150,000 vs May’s 171,000. ADP has been very accurate so far this year and today’s results are bound to have forecasters wondering if they should boost their estimates, at least perhaps slightly, for tomorrow’s big report.
United States ISM New York Index
The ISM NY Current Business Conditions Index dropped sharply to 37.2 in May 2016 from 57 in the previous month. It is the lowest reading since April of 2009 as employment (44.6 from 49.9 in April), quantity of purchases (37.5 from 48.2) and prices paid (45.7 from 48.1) decreased further while current (60 from 50) and expected (68 from 56) revenues increased. The 6-month outlook stabilized at 53.6 after falling to a 7-year low of 53.1 in April. Ism New York Index in the United States averaged 55.69 percent from 1993 until 2016, reaching an all time high of 88.80 percent in December of 2003 and a record low of 23.40 percent in October of 2001. Ism New York Index in the United States is reported by the Institute for Supply Management.