Retail Sales year over year

I know it was better than expected, but sure doesn’t look like anything that would cause a Fed member to ‘taper’? In fact, the slope still looks negative to me?

Yes, it looks a little better if you exclude autos, gasoline and building materials, but autos are leveraged purchases, representing purchases that exceed income, and weekly Redbook retail sales still looking deceleration as well.

To sustain GDP growth, private sector credit expansion plus govt spending more than its income need to ‘overcome’ the demand leakages of contributions and earnings of pension funds, the trade deficit/foreign central bank dollar accumulation, unspent corporate income, etc. etc. Cars and housing have been the drivers behind the private sector credit expansion that’s gotten us this far, overcoming the retreating govt deficit.

The question remains whether the private sector credit expansion can survive the austerity measures of the year end tax hikes and the sequesters.

Still looks like a ‘maybe not’ to me?

Retail Sales Y/Y:

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Retail Sales M/M:

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Core Retail Sales Y/Y:

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Annualized Auto Sales:

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