If these forecasts turn out to be correct it means a hard landing was avoided.
However, China’s stock market prices, anecdotal evidence on property prices, and commodity price performance is suggesting it could already be a lot worse than forecast.
August 17 (Bloomberg) — Morgan Stanley (MS) and Deutsche Bank AG cut estimates for China’s economic growth as the debt burdens and elevated unemployment of developed nations threaten demand for exports.
Morgan Stanley cut a forecast for next year to 8.7 percent from 9 percent, in an e-mailed note today. Deutsche Bank lowered a prediction for this year to 8.9 percent from 9.1 percent, in a report yesterday.