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Yes, but unspoken is the automatic stabilizers are quietly adding to the deficit with each move down, and the curves will cross and the economy start to improve when the deficit gets large enough, whether it’s the ugly way via falling revenues and rising transfer payments, or proactively via a proactive fiscal adjustment.
With income and spending turning mildly positive in January and other indicators such as the commodities also beginning to move sideways as the deficit passes through 5% before the latest fiscal adjustment kicks in, we may be seeing GDP headed towards 0 by q3 or sooner as most forecasters now predict. Unemployment, however, will continue to rise until real growth exceeds productivity growth.
Bottom line, there will be a recovery with or without a proactive fiscal adjustment. the difference is how bad it gets before it turns north.
by Paul Krugman
Mar 8 (NYT) — President Obama’s plan to stimulate the economy was a massive, giant, enormous.Â So the American people were told, especially by TV news, during the run-up to the stimulus vote. Watching the news, you might have thought that the only question was whether the plan was too big, too ambitious.
Yet many economists, myself included, actually argued that the plan was too small and too cautious. The latest data confirm those worries Â and suggest that the Obama administration’s economic policies are already falling behind the curve.