2008-04-24 US Economic Releases

  • Durable Goods Orders (Released 8:30AM EST)
  • Initial Jobless Claims (Released 8:30AM EST)
  • Continuing Claims (Released 8:30AM EST)
  • Help Wanted Index (Released 10AM EST)
  • New Home Sales (Released 10AM EST)

From Karim:

  • Initial claims down from 375k (revised from 372k) to 342k
  • Continuing claims down from 2999k (revised from 2984k) to 2934k
  • DGO ex-aircraft and defense unchanged and down -2% and -1% in Jan/Feb
  • Claims have been volatile lately due to seasonals, but if they were to somehow stabilize at these levels, would still be in line with 0 employment growth
  • Q1 business capex component of GDP likely to be negative (has never been a recession where business capex did not also contract)

IFO down from 104.8 to 102.4 and retail component down from -0.9 to -10.0

ECB Member Bonello returns fire to Weber:

On the basis of the data we have at hand and the ECB’s rationale for monetary policy strategy it is very difficult to make an argument for higher interest rates.

2008-04-24 Durable Goods Orders

Durable Goods Orders (Mar)

Survey 0.1%
Actual -0.3%
Prior -1.7%
Revised -0.9%

2008-04-24 Durable Goods Orders YoY

Durable Goods Orders YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual -4.2%
Prior 5.5%
Revised n/a

2008-04-24 Durables Ex Transportation

Durables Ex Transportation (Mar)

Survey 0.5%
Actual 1.5%
Prior -2.6%
Revised -2.1%

2008-04-24 Durable Goods TABLE

Durable Goods TABLE

Not all that bad. Two month total above expectations as Feb revised to a smaller drop.

Not at recession levels, yet.

And fiscal package kicking in soon.

2008-04-24 Initial Jobless Claims since 1998

Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 19)

Survey 375K
Actual 342K
Prior 372K
Revised 375K

As suspected, from the jobless recovery to the full-employment recession.

Labor numbers soft but not all that bad. No where near recession levels, particularly population adjusted.

2008-04-24 Continuing Claims since 1998

Continuing Claims (Apr 12)

Survey 2990K
Actual 2934K
Prior 2984K
Revised 2999K

A lagging indicator, now following initial claims lower.

2008-04-24 Help Wanted Index

Help Wanted Index (Mar)

Survey 20
Actual 19
Prior 21
Revised n/a

Still going south, but a lagging indicator.

2008-04-24 New Home Sales

New Home Sales (Mar)

Survey 580K
Actual 526K
Prior 590K
Revised 575K

Sales still heading south.
Might be because production and inventories are down, and also subject to revisions next month.

2008-04-24 New Home Sales MoM

New Home Sales MoM (Mar)

Survey -1.7%
Actual -8.5%
Prior -1.8%
Revised -5.3%

2008-04-24 Number of New Home For Sales

Number of New Homes for Sale (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual 468K
Prior 473K
Revised n/a

Actual inventories are down substantially, and remaining inventory is probably not highly desirable.

Looking for regional shortages in the spring/summer buying season to drive up prices.

2008-04-24 New Home Sales Median Price

New Home Sales Median Price (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual $227.6K
Prior $244.2K
Revised n/a


2008-04-24 New Home Sales Average Price

New Home Sales Average Price (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual $292.2K
Prior $302.9K
Revised n/a


2008-04-24 New Home Sales TABLE

New Home Sales TABLE