2008-06-06 Economic Releases


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2008-06-06 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (May)

Survey -60K
Actual -49K
Prior -20K
Revised -28K

Down 49,000 was better than expected.
Previous months revised down an additional total of 15,000.

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2008-06-06 Unemployment Rate

Unemployment Rate (May)

Survey 5.1%
Actual 5.5%
Prior 5.0%
Revised n/a

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2008-06-06 Unemployment Rate ALLX

Unemployment Rate ALLX

Total employment is over 138 million, and the seasonal adjustment dropped the actual number by over 1.5 million jobs.

So this report is fighting strong seasonal adjustments.

5.5% unemployment from the household survey is a lot worse than expected.

Seems 500,000 new job seekers entered the labor force in that survey, apparently a statistical quirk added that many teenagers and 20-24 year olds out of sync with seasonal adjustments.

Even so, the labor markets remain on the weak side.

But they are strong enough to support crude at $131.72 (as Saudi oil production continues to grow at even these higher prices and headline inflation) is well north of 4%, as the May CPI is expected to show.

Employment is also strong enough to yield positive GDP growth – no recession yet.

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2008-06-06 Change in Manufacturing Payrolls

Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (May)

Survey -40K
Actual -26K
Prior -46K
Revised -49

Better than expected, in line with other recent report.

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2008-06-06 Average Hourly Earnings MoM

Average Hourly Earnings MoM (May)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.1%
Revised n/a

A touch higher than expected, but not that bad.

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2008-06-06 Average Hourly Earnings YoY

Average Hourly Earnings YoY (May)

Survey 3.4%
Actual 3.5%
Prior 3.4%
Revised 3.5%

Also a bit higher than expected, but still not moving higher.

‘Wage inflation’ is not the issue, nor is it necessary condition for problematic inflation, especially in an export economy.

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2008-06-06 Average Weekly Hours

Average Weekly Hours (May)

Survey 33.7
Actual 33.7
Prior 33.7
Revised n/a

Holding steady.

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2008-06-06 Wholesale Inventories MoM

Wholesale Inventories MoM (April)

Survey 0.4%
Actual 1.3%
Prior -0.1%
Revised 0.1%

Higher than expected, but not at recession levels yet.

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2008-06-06 Wholesale Inventories YoY

Wholesale Inventories YoY (April)

Survey n/a
Actual 8.1%
Prior 7.0%
Revised n/a

Higher than expected, but still not all that high.

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2008-06-06 Consumer Credit

Consumer Credit (April)

Survey $7.2B
Actual $8.9B
Prior $15.3B
Revised $13.1B

This month a bit better than expected, last month revised down a bit. Consumer credit seems to be chugging along at better than recession levels.


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2008-05-08 US Economic Releases


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2008-05-08 Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims (May 3)

Survey 370K
Actual 365K
Prior 380K
Revised 383K

Still far from recession levels anticipated several months ago by most forecasters.

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2008-05-08 Continuing Claims

Continuing Claims (Apr 26)

Survey 3020K
Actual 3020K
Prior 3019K
Revised 3030K

Far from recession levels but the chart is still looking higher. This often lags initial claims.

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2008-05-08 Wholesale Inventories

Wholesale Inventories (Mar)

Survey 0.5%
Actual -0.1%
Prior 1.1%
Revised 0.9%

Another sign that the odds of a recession are lower than anticipated a few months ago.

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2008-05-08 ICSC Chain Store Sales YoY

ICSC Chain Store Sales YoY

Survey n/a
Actual 3.6%
Prior -0.5%
Revised n/a

More evidence the worst is over, and recession was never in the cards.


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2008-04-09 US Economic Releases

2008-04-09 MBAVPRCH Index

MBAVPRCH Index (Apr 4)

Survey n/a
Actual 384.7
Prior 356.0
Revised n/a

If this is a recession, it’s not much of one, and housing is slowly bottoming and turning back up some.


2008-04-09 MBAVREFI Index

MBAVREFI Index (Apr 4)

Survey n/a
Actual 2724.7
Prior 2636.0
Revised n/a

The refi machine is far from dead.


2008-04-09 Wholesale Inventories

Wholesale Inventories

Survey 0.5%
Actual 1.1%
Prior 0.8%
Revised 1.0%

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2008-01-10 US Economic Releases

2008-01-10 Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 5)

Survey 340K
Actual 322K
Prior 336K
Revised 337K

2008-01-10 Continuing Claims

Continuing Claims (Dec 29)

Survey 2730K
Actual 2702K
Prior 2761K
Revised 2754K

Looks like employment for December was pretty good.


2008-01-10 Wholesale Inventories

Wholesale Inventories (Nov)

Survey 0.4%
Actual 0.6%
Prior 0.0%
Revised

November sales look good, and October revised up.

Inventory/sales ratio hits new low:

U.S. Nov wholesale inventories up 0.6 pct

by Lisa Lambert

(Reuters) Inventories at U.S. wholesalers rose 0.6 percent in November, but they did not keep pace with sales, which saw the biggest monthly increase in more than two years on rising petroleum prices, the government reported Thursday.

The Commerce Department said sales rose by 2.2 percent in November, the biggest monthly gain since September 2005. That reflected an 8.9 percent boost in petroleum sales, which a Commerce Department official said reflected higher prices. It was also
the biggest rise since September 2005, when a devastating hurricane season drove up the price of oil.

Analysts polled by Reuters expected a 0.4 percent gain in inventories, after a flat reading in October, which was unrevised. The department had a big revision in sales during October, reporting a 1.4 percent rise instead of the prior estimate of 0.7 percent.

In a sign businesses are not building up stockpiles as the economy slows, the inventory-to-sales ratio — a measure of the number months it would take to deplete existing stocks at the current sales pace — fell to a record low of 1.07 months from October’s downwardly revised 1.08 months.


2008-01-10 ICSC Chain Store Sales YoY

ICSC Chain Store Sales YoY (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.9%
Prior 3.5%
Revised n/a

Certainly moderating, but not all that bad.