2008-09-03 USER


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US Economic Releases


MBA Mortgage Applications (Aug 29)

Survey n/a
Actual 7.5%
Prior 0.5%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Aug 29)

Survey n/a
Actual 349.0
Prior 315.9
Revised n/a

Nice to see this picking up. With agencies sorted out and income holding up, it should continue to improve over time.

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Aug 29)

Survey n/a
Actual 1059.7
Prior 1038.0
Revised n/a

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MBA TABLE 1 (Aug 29)

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MBA TABLE 2 (Aug 29)

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MBA TABLE 3 (Aug 29)

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MBA TABLE 4 (Aug 29)

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Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 11.7%
Prior 140.8%
Revised n/a

This series hasn’t been all that useful one way or another.

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 1 (Aug)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 2 (Aug)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 3 (Aug)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 4 (Aug)

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Challenger Job Cuts ALLX (Aug)

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ICSC-UBS Store Sales WoW (Sep 2)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.1%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

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ICSC-UBS Store Sales YoY (Sep 2)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.2%
Prior 2.3%
Revised n/a

Looks okay. No recession here.

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Sep 2)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.3%
Prior 1.9%
Revised n/a

Looks okay.

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ICSC-UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Sep 2)

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Factory Orders MoM (Jul)

Survey 1.0%
Actual 1.3%
Prior 1.7%
Revised 2.1%

Better than expected and previous month revised up.

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Factory Orders YoY (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual 5.3%
Prior 7.5%
Revised n/a

Could be construed as being in an uptrend!

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Factory Orders ALLX (Jul)

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Domestic Vehicle Sales (Aug)

Survey 9.4M
Actual 10.4M
Prior 9.1M
Revised n/a

Even this has turned up, though from very low levels.

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Total Vehicle Sales (Aug)

Survey 13.0M
Actual 13.7M
Prior 12.5M
Revised n/a

Better than expected and may have bottomed. As the mix of vehicles produces switches, expect sales to increase.

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Vehicle Sales ALLX (Aug)


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2008-06-03 US Economic Releases


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2008-06-03 Total Vehicle Sales

Total Vehicle Sales (May)

Survey 14.6M
Actual 14.3M
Prior 14.4M
Revised n/a

Very weak, as was transportation in general, but more than made up for by other factory orders, see below.

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2008-06-03 Domestic Vehicle Sales

Domestic Vehicle Sales (May)

Survey 10.8M
Actual 10.5M
Prior 10.6M
Revised n/a

As above, very weak.

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2008-06-03 Factory Orders YoY

Factory Orders YoY (Apr)

Survey -0.1%
Actual 1.1%
Prior 1.4%
Revised 1.5%

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2008-06-04 Factory Orders Ex Transportation

Factory Orders Ex Transportation

Survey n/a
Actual 389154
Prior 378303
Revised n/a

Upside surprise, and non-transportation up very strong.

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2008-06-03 Factory Orders MoM

Factory Orders MoM (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.8%
Prior 4.2%
Revised 1.5%

More upside surprises.
No recession, and this was before the fiscal package kicked in.

With domestic demand not this strong, could be even larger increases in exports as foreigners continue to spend their now unwanted hoard of USD over here.

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2008-06-03 ABC Consumer Confidence

ABC Consumer Confidence (Jun 1)

Survey -51
Actual -45
Prior -51
Revised n/a

Even this indicator had an upside surprise.

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2008-05-01 US Economic Releases


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2008-05-01 Challenger Job Cuts YoY

Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual 27.4%
Prior 9.4%
Revised n/a

Seem to be drifting higher.

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2008-05-01 Personal Income

Personal Income (Mar)

Survey 0.4%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.5%
Revised n/a

Not the stuff of recessions.

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2008-05-01 Personal Spending

Personal Spending (Mar)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.4%
Prior 0.1%
Revised n/a

Muddling through.

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2008-05-01 PCE Deflator YoY

PCE Deflator YoY (Mar)

Survey 3.2%
Actual 3.2%
Prior 3.4%
Revised n/a

Still far too high for comfort for a mainstream economist.

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2008-05-01 PCE Core MoM

PCE Core MoM (Mar)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.1%
Revised n/a

I’m anticipation more 0.3%s for the rest of this year.

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2008-05-01 PCE Core YoY

PCE Core YoY (Mar)

Survey 2.0%
Actual 2.1%
Prior 2.0%
Revised n/a

Starting to move back up.

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2008-05-01 Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 26)

Survey 365K
Actual 380K
Prior 342K
Revised 345K

No recession yet.

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2008-05-01 Continuing Claims

Continuing Claims (Apr 19)

Survey 2950K
Actual 3019K
Prior 2934K
Revised 2945K

No recession yet.

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2008-05-01 ISM Manufacturing

ISM Manufacturing (Apr)

Survey 48.0
Actual 48.6
Prior 48.6
Revised n/a

Staying above recession levels.

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2008-05-01 ISM Prices Paid

ISM Prices Paid (Apr)

Survey 83.5
Actual 84.5
Prior 83.5
Revised n/a

Inflation ripping!

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2008-05-01 Construction Spending MoM

Construction Spending MoM (Mar)

Survey -0.7%
Actual -1.1%
Prior -0.3%
Revised 0.4%

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2008-05-01 Construction Spending YoY

Construction Spending YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual -3.4%
Prior -2.2%
Revised n/a

Still weak.

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Total Vehicle Sales (Apr)

Survey 15.0M
Actual
Prior 15.1M
Revised

[comments]

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Domestic Vehicle Sales (Apr)

Survey 11.4M
Actual
Prior 11.1M
Revised

[comments]


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2008-03-03 US Economic Releases

2008-03-03 RPX Composite 28dy YoY

RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual -7.24%
Prior -4.17%
Revised n/a

2008-03-03 RPX Composite 28dy Index

RPX Composite 28dy Index (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual 245.70
Prior 254.29
Revised n/a

Both were falling into year end.


2008-03-02 ISM Manufacturing

ISM Manufacturing (Feb)

Survey 48.0
Actual 48.3
Prior 50.7
Revised n/a

Better than expected. Not yet to recession levels.


2008-03-03 ISM Prices Paid

ISM Prices Paid (Feb)

Survey 73.5
Actual 75.5
Prior 76.0
Revised n/a

Price pressures persisting.


2008-03-03 Construction Spending MoM

Construction Spending MoM (Jan)

Survey -0.7%
Actual -1.7%
Prior -1.1%
Revised -1.3%

Very weak.


2008-03-03 Total Vehicle Sales

Total Vehicle Sales (Feb)

Survey 15.5M
Actual 15.4M
Prior 15.2M
Revised n/a

As expected, but drifting to a lower range.


2008-03-03 Domestic Vehicle Sales

Domestic Vehicle Sales (Feb)

Survey 11.9M
Actual 11.7M
Prior 11.7M
Revised n/a

Drifting lower.


Same twin themes: weak demand and higher prices.Exports keeping GDP from recession levels, but taking demand from the rest of the world that is also softening.