Tag Archives: University of Michigan Confidence

2009-03-27 USER

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Personal Income MoM (Feb)

Survey -0.1%
Actual -0.2%
Prior 0.4%
Revised 0.2%

 
Karim writes:

  • Personal income down 0.2%, down 4 of last 5mths, and up 1% y/y
  • Wage and salary income down 0.4%, down 4mths in a row, and -0.2% y/y
  • Personal spending up 0.2%, and down 0.2% in real terms
  • Based on Jan-Feb data, real Q1 spending may be flat from -4.3% in Q4
  • But because of weakening trend thru Q1, sets up for another negative in Q2
  • Saw one forecaster change Q1 estimate from -7.2% to -6.5% and leave Q2 estimate unch at -4.8%

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Personal Income YoY (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.0%
Prior 1.4%
Revised n/a

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Personal Income ALLX (Feb)

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Personal Spending (Feb)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.6%
Revised 1.0%

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PCE Deflator YoY (Feb)

Survey 0.8%
Actual 1.0%
Prior 0.7%
Revised 0.8%

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PCE Core MoM (Feb)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.1%
Revised 0.2%

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PCE Core YoY (Feb)

Survey 1.6%
Actual 1.8%
Prior 1.6%
Revised 1.7%

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U of Michigan Confidence (Mar F)

Survey 56.8
Actual 57.3
Prior 56.6
Revised n/a

 
Karim writes:

  • Final Michigan survey for March showed small upward revision in confidence: 56.6 to 57.3 (Feb was 56.3)
  • 5-10yr inflation expectations revised lower: 2.8 to 2.6 (Feb was 3.1)

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    U of Michigan Confidence TABLE Inflation Expectations (Feb)


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2008-12-23 USER

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ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Dec 23)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.60%
Prior -0.40%
Revised n/a

 
Continues to slip.

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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Dec 23)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.60%
Prior 0.60%
Revised n/a

 
Cheaper gasoline helping some?

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Dec 16)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.00%
Prior -1.40%
Revised n/a

 
Still slipping.

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (Dec 16)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.70%
Prior -0.70%
Revised n/a

 
Still slipping.

No meaningul sign of cheaper gasoline helping here yet.

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Dec 16)

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GDP QoQ Annualized (3Q F)

Survey -0.5%
Actual -0.5%
Prior -0.5%
Revised n/a

 
As expected.

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GDP YoY Annualized Real (3Q F)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.70%
Prior 2.1%
Revised n/a

 
Tiny positive for the year.

Next quarter looking negative.

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GDP YoY Annualized Nominal (3Q F)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.3%
Prior 4.1%
Revised n/a

 
This is heading to new lows as well.

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GDP Price Index (3Q F)

Survey 4.25
Actual 3.9%
Prior 4.2%
Revised n/a

 
Should reverse.

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Core PCE QoQ (3Q F)

Survey 2.6%
Actual 2.4%
Prior 2.6%
Revised n/a

 
Should reverse some.

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GDP ALLX 1 (3Q F)

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GDP ALLX 2 (3Q F)

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Personal Consumption (3Q F)

Survey -3.7%
Actual -3.8%
Prior -3.7%
Revised n/a

 
Sudden fall from ‘muddling through’ to recession.

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Univ of Michigan Confidence (Dec F)

Survey 58.8
Actual 60.1
Prior 59.1
Revised n/a

 
Gasoline prices helping here.

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Univ of Michigan TABLE Inflation Expectations (Dec F)

 
Back to where the Fed wants them to be.

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New Home Sales (Nov)

Survey 415k
Actual 407k
Prior 433k
Revised 419k

 
A bit lower than expected and last month revised down some.

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New Home Sales Total for Sale (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual 374.00
Prior 402.00
Revised n/a

 
Down to very low levels and one reason sales are low.

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New Home Sales MoM (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual -2.9%
Prior -5.2%
Revised n/a

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New Home Sales YoY (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual -35.3%
Prior -42.0%
Revised n/a

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New Home Sales Median Price (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual 220.40
Prior 214.60
Revised n/a

 
Up, but still trending lower.

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New Home Sales TABLE 1 (Nov)

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New Home Sales TABLE 2 (Nov)

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Existing Home Sales (Nov)

Survey 4.93M
Actual 4.49M
Prior 4.98M
Revised 4.91M

 
Large drop.

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Existing Home Sales MoM (Nov)

Survey -1.0%
Actual -8.6%
Prior -3.1%
Revised -4.5%

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Existing Home Sales YoY (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.6%
Prior 0.6%
Revised n/a

 
Still well off the bottom.

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Existing Home Sales Inventory (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.234
Prior 4.272
Revised n/a

 
Falling some, but new foreclosures probably keeping this high.

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Existing Home Sales ALLX 1 (Nov)

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Existing Home Sales ALLX 2 (Nov)

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House Price Index MoM (Oct)

Survey -1.3%
Actual -1.1%
Prior -1.3%
Revised -1.2%

 
Still falling.

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House Price Index YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual -7.5%
Prior -7.0%
Revised n/a

 
No bottom in sight yet.

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House Price Index ALLX (Nov)

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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Dec)

Survey -40
Actual -55
Prior -38
Revised n/a

 
Very weak.

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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index ALLX (Dec)


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2008-12-12 USER

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Producer Price Index MoM (Nov)

Survey -2.0%
Actual -2.2%
Prior -2.8%
Revised n/a

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PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (Nov)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.1%
Prior 0.4%
Revised n/a

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Producer Price Index YoY (Nov)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.4%
Prior 5.2%
Revised n/a

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PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (Nov)

Survey 4.2%
Actual 4.2%
Prior 4.4%
Revised n/a

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Advance Retail Sales MoM (Nov)

Survey -2.0%
Actual -1.8%
Prior -2.8%
Revised -2.9%

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Advance Retail Sales YoY (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual -7.4%
Prior -4.6%
Revised n/a

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Retail Sales Less Autos MoM (Nov)

Survey -1.8%
Actual -1.6%
Prior -2.2%
Revised -2.4%

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Business Inventories MoM (Oct)

Survey -0.2%
Actual -0.6%
Prior -0.2%
Revised -0.4%

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Business Inventories YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.6%
Prior 5.4%
Revised n/a

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University of Michigan Confidence (Dec P)

Survey 54.5
Actual 59.1
Prior 55.3
Revised n/a

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University of Michigan TABLE Inflation Expectations (Dec P)


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2008-09-26 USER

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GDP QoQ Annualized (2Q F)

Survey 3.3%
Actual 2.8%
Prior 3.3%
Revised n/a

 
Growth lower than expected, but still ok.

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GDP YoY Annualized Real (2Q F)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.0%
Prior 2.1%
Revised n/a

 
Still above recession levels, but still not looking that healthy.

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GDP YoY Annualized Nominal (2Q F)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.1%
Prior 4.7%
Revised n/a

 
Nominal GDP falling, but not yet to previous recession levels.

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GDP Price Index (2Q F)

Survey 1.2%
Actual 1.1%
Prior 1.2%
Revised n/a

 
A little better than expected, but this series doen’t carry much weight.

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GDP ALLX (2Q F)

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Core PCE QoQ (2Q F)

Survey 2.1%
Actual 2.2%
Prior 2.1%
Revised n/a

 
A bit higher than expected, and the Fed does watch this one closely. They want it under 2%.

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Personal Consumption (2Q F)

Survey 1.7%
Actual 1.2%
Prior 1.7%
Revised n/a

 
Worse than expected and not moving much off the bottom, which are at recession type levels.

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Personal Consumption ALLX 1 (2Q F)

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Personal Consumption ALLX 2 (2Q F)

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Univ. of Michigan Confidence (Sep F)

Survey 70.8
Actual 70.3
Prior 73.1
Revised n/a

 
Less than expected but looks to have perked up some.

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1 Year Inflation Expectations (Sep F)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.3%
Prior 3.6%
Revised n/a

 
Welcome news for the Fed. Follows gasoline prices pretty closely.

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5 Year Inflation Expectations (Sep F)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.0%
Prior 2.9%
Revised n/a

 
Also nice to see that coming down.

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Univ. of Michigan TABLE Inflation Expectations (Sep F)


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2008-05-30 US Economic Releases

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2008-05-30 Personal Income

Personal Income (Apr)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.3%
Revised 0.4%

Soldiering on, and would have been higher if the Fed hadn’t cut rates as interest income is a meaningful factor.

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2008-05-30 Personal Spending

Personal Spending (Apr)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.4%
Revised n/a

Also holding up and supporting GDP at muddling through levels.

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2008-05-30 PCE Deflator YoY

PCE Deflator YoY (Apr)

Survey 3.1%
Actual 3.2%
Prior 3.2%
Revised n/a

Zig-zagging its way higher as crude prices rise and get passed through to everything else over time.

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2008-05-30 PCE Core MoM

PCE Core MoM (Apr)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.1%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

Taking a breather for a month or so.

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2008-05-30 PCE Core YoY

PCE Core YoY (Apr)

Survey 2.1%
Actual 2.1%
Prior 2.1%
Revised n/a

In the 1970’s this moved through 3% as headline moved through 6%.  Might be just a few months away.

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2008-05-30 Chicago Purchasing Manager

Chicago Purchasing Manager (May)

Survey 48.5
Actual 49.1
Prior 48.3
Revised n/a

Another indicator coming in better than expected and showing signs it has bottomed.

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2008-05-30 U. of Michigan Confidence

U. of Michigan Confidence (May F)

Survey 59.5
Actual 59.8
Prior 59.5
Revised n/a

Though a tad better than expected, still down and out due to rapidly rising inflation expectations.

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2008-05-30 NAPM-Milwaukee

NAPM-Milwaukee

Survey 47.0
Actual 45.0
Prior 48.0
Revised n/a

Not looking cheerful in Milwaukee.


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2007-12-07 US Economic Releases

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On 12/7/07, Karim Basta wrote:
>
>
> NFP +94k
> Net revisions -48k, with Sep revised from 96k to 44k (lowest mthly gain
> since 2/04)But October revised up to 170,000, indicating Sep the low so far, and
> improvement since then. And the Fed surely remember Sep 11 meeting
> where the Aug employment number was reported down and later revised to
> a relatively strong up number.

> UE rate down from 4.727% to 4.658%

And the Fed is concerned a falling labor force participation rate due to demographics means labor tightening with fewer new jobs.

> Most important to me was the diffusion index dropping below 50 (more
> industries losing jobs than gaining jobs) for the first time since Sep 2003

Yes, but only just below to 49.8 from 53.

> Retail job change from -15k to +24k looks suspect and reflective of poor
> seasonal adjustment factor;likely borrowing heavily from Dec job gwth
> Index of aggregate hours up 0.1% and avg hrly earnings up 0.5% (off a low
> 0.2% last mth)

Might result in Fed upward revisions for q4 gdp?

>
> Base case for next week is -25bps on FF and -50bps on DR.

2007-12-07 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov)

Survey 80K
Actual 94K
Prior 166K
Revised 170K

Better than forecasting, and jobs being added about as fast as the fed thinks possible given fed perception of current demographics – no slack evident. Sept revised down and October up to 170,000 so the chart looks fine.

2007-12-07 Unemployment Rate

Unemployment Rate (Nov)

 

Survey 4.8%
Actual 4.7%
Prior 4.7%
Revised n/a

 

Better than forecast, and still well below the fed’s ‘unspoken’ concern that anything below 5% is more than non-inflationary full employment level.

2007-12-07 Change in Manufacturing Payrolls

Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Nov)

 

Survey -15K
Actual -11K
Prior -21K
Revised -15K

 

2007-12-07 Average Hourly Earnings MoM

Average Hourly Earnings MoM

 

Survey 0.3%
Actual 0.5%
Prior 0.2%
Revised 0.1%

 

Above expectations, nudges up inflation risk.

2007-12-07 Average Hourly Earnings YoY

Average Hourly Earnings YoY

 

Survey 3.8%
Actual 3.8%
Prior 3.8%
Revised 3.6%

 

2007-12-07 Average Weekly Hours

Average Weekly Hours (Nov)

 

Survey 33.8
Actual 33.8
Prior 33.8
Revised n/a

 

Total hours holding up nicely and growing some – could see Q4 GPD numbers revised up by some firms.

2007-12-07 U. of Michigan Confidence

U. of Michigan Confidence (Dec P)

Survey 75.0
Actual 74.5
Prior 76.1
Revised n/a

 

This is also from watching CNBC.

2007-12-07 Comsumer Credit

Consumer Credit (Oct)

Survey $5.0
Actual $4.7B
Prior $3.7B
Revised $3.2B

 

Still in a reasonably narrow range.

♥

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