Trade Archive

QE still driving portfolio shifting

I’ve been watching for a ‘buy the rumor sell the news’ ‘risk off’ reversal, but it happened at best only momentarily after the Fed announcement, when the 10 year tsy note dipped to maybe 2.62 very briefly, stocks dipped, the dollar sort of held, gold was off a touch, etc. But now ...Read More


Karim writes: Bullard Definitely out there on his own. FRB would certainly not communicate policy shift through him Also, everyone has different reasons why QE works. Most of the Fed leadership thinks just via interest rate channel and announcement effect. Bullard thinks through monetary channel, which makes him a minority. GDP Data: ...Read More

China and the $US

[Skip to the end] Looks like China is pretty much keeping its currency stable vs the dollar and depreciating against the rest of the world, probably to support it’s exporters. (Note the recent rise in exports and rhetoric regarding the importance of exports.) This means if the currency is ‘naturally’ strong China ...Read More

Europe Posts Trade Surplus in May

[Skip to the end] Both imports and exports continued to fall in May as nothing there seems to be going right. Europe Posts Trade Surplus in May as Imports Fall By Emma Ross-Thomas July 17 (Bloomberg) — Europe posted a trade surplus for a second month in May as exports declined less ...Read More


[Skip to the end] Karim writes: Trade improves both in balance and direction, likely benefitting from inventory restocking as goods balance improves much more than services balance Exports up 1.6% and imports down 0.6% Real trade balance narrows by 3.9bn; will likely boost Q2 GDP estimates by 0.25-0.50% (median estimate now -1.8%) ...Read More