Republicans, fearing Greece, agreeing to tax hikes

Shows the Republicans truly do fear the US becoming the next Greece,
as they begin to lean towards tax hikes.

Meanwhile, they continue keeping us on the road to Japan.
Or worse.
A lot worse.

Republicans Consider Breaking No-Tax Vow as Deadline Looms

By Brian Faler

November 15 (Bloomberg) — For Senator John Cornyn, it was the situation in Greece.

The Texas Republican said he is willing to back tax increases as part of a major deficit-reduction deal because he fears the European debt crisis could spread to the U.S.

“We’ve never been in this spot before,” said Cornyn, who also leads his party’s effort to elect more Republicans to the Senate. “We’re looking over at Europe and what’s happening in Greece and Italy — we risk having another huge financial crisis in this country, and we’ve got to try to solve the problem.”

He is one of a growing number of Republicans, many with otherwise impeccable anti-tax credentials, who say they are willing to raise taxes to reach a big deficit-reduction deal with Democrats.

That may help insulate them from charges of stubbornness if Congress’s bipartisan supercommittee doesn’t meet its Nov. 23 deadline to find a way to cut $1.5 trillion. For now, it’s helped shift Washington’s debate to how much, rather than whether, to raise taxes.

Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad, a North Dakota Democrat, said he is encouraged by the shift even as Democrats scoff at a specific Republican proposal.

“It’s a step in the right direction for them to just rhetorically cross that line,” said Conrad.

‘Real Trouble’

Asked if Republicans were trying to set up a blame game should the supercommittee fail, Conrad said, “I hope not” because “if we aren’t beyond that, we are in real trouble.”

Democrats say the Republican deficit plan relies too heavily on spending cuts and would give the wealthy too much of a tax break. Some question whether its numbers add up.

At issue is a proposal by the supercommittee’s Republicans to trade permanent cuts in income tax rates, with the top rate dropping to as little as 28 percent, for new limits on deductions, exclusions and other tax breaks. They estimate that it would produce $300 billion to reduce the deficit.

The plan’s principal author is Senator Pat Toomey, a Pennsylvania Republican who previously led the Club for Growth, a Washington anti-tax group. House Speaker John Boehner, an Ohio Republican, today endorsed the proposal, calling it a “fair offer.”

Some conservative organizations are accusing Republicans of trying to hide tax increases through the Toomey plan.

Norquist Reaction

“Closing tax loopholes is all well and good,” said Americans for Tax Reform president Grover Norquist in an opinion article in Politico. “But doing so to raise revenues is just as much a tax hike as raising tax rates.” He added, “Any congressman who wants to keep his promise to voters to oppose tax increases” must oppose the plan.

Many Republican lawmakers are also unhappy with the proposal. “We don’t have a tax problem — we have a spending problem,” said Senator Jim DeMint, a South Carolina Republican. “For us to get lulled into ‘how much to raise taxes’ in this thing is foolish.”

Senator Orrin Hatch, the top Republican on the tax-writing Finance Committee, said, “Some of these loopholes really aren’t loopholes.” He called them “important policy provisions, like the home interest mortgage deduction.”

Republican supporters of the plan say they are trying to lock in lower income-tax rates that will otherwise jump if, as is currently scheduled, the tax cuts enacted in President George W. Bush’s administration expire at the end of next year. President Barack Obama opposes extending the Bush-era cuts for those earning more than $250,000, and Republicans are unlikely in the 2012 elections to win the Senate votes they would need to keep the tax cuts in effect.

‘Biggest Tax Increase’

“What we’re trying to do is avoid the biggest tax increase in the history of the country,” Senator Charles Grassley, an Iowa Republican, said of Toomey’s plan.

Toomey declined to comment other than to point to a Nov. 10 Wall Street Journal editorial quoting him as calling his proposal a “bitter pill” that is “justified to prevent the tax increase that’s coming.”

A number of Republicans are playing down anti-tax pledges they signed with Norquist’s group. “We take an oath to uphold the Constitution” and “that trumps any and every consideration,” said Cornyn.

“I didn’t know I was signing a marriage vow,” said Representative Mike Simpson of Idaho, one of 40 House Republicans who recently signed a letter signaling willingness to raise taxes as part of a major deficit-cutting deal.

Shifting Opinion

Senator Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, the chamber’s third- ranking Republican, said he saw a sign of shifting opinion when three of the supercommittee Republican members — Toomey, Rob Portman of Ohio and Arizona’s Jon Kyl — briefed Senate colleagues on their plan and no one complained.

“For Pat Toomey and Portman and Kyl to come in and tell a whole roomful of Republicans that ‘we’ve put $250 billion of tax increases on the table’ and not get a murmur of dissent is remarkable,” said Alexander.

Senator Saxby Chambliss, a Georgia Republican, said his party’s lawmakers should consider bigger tax increases if it would lead to a larger debt-reduction deal, because the political price they would pay will essentially be the same.

“You’re going to be criticized by the same people irrespective of what the number is,” said Chambliss.

Michael Bloomberg: Best Economic Stimulus is Now Fiscal Responsibility

So much for his legacy…

Mayor Bloomberg Outlines Specific Actions For Super Committee

By Michael Bloomberg

November 8 (Moment of Truth Project) — Mayor: Best Economic Stimulus is Now Fiscal Responsibility – Super Committee Must Break Partisan Deadlock and Take Bold Action.

The following are Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg’s remarks as prepared for delivery today at a forum hosted by the Center for American Progress and the American Action Forum at the Center for American Progress’ headquarters in Washington, DC. Please check against delivery.

News recap comments

The news flow from last week was so voluminous it was nearly impossible to process. For good measure I want to start today’s commentary with a simple recap of what happened.

On the negative side

· Greece called a referendum and threw bailout plans up in the air taking Greek 2yrs from 70% to 90% or +2000bps.
· Italian 10yr debt collapsed 40bps with spreads to Germany out 70bps. The moves were far larger in the 2yr sector.
· France 10y debt widened 25bps to Germany. At one point spreads were almost 40 wider.
· Italian PMI and Spanish employment data were miserable.
· German factory orders plunged 4.3 percent on the month.
· The planned EFSF bond for 3bio was pulled.
· Itraxx financials were +34 while subs were +45.
· Draghi predicted a recession for Europe along with disinflation.
· The G20 was flop – there was no agreement on IMF involvement in Europe.
· The US super committee deadline is 17 days away with no clear agreement.
· The 8th largest US bankruptcy in history took place.
· US 10yr and 30yr rallied 28bps, Spoos were -2.5%, the Dax was -6% and EURUSD was -3%.
· German CDS was up 16bps on the week.

On the positive side

· The Fed showed its hand with tightening dissents now gone and an easing dissent in place.

Too bad what they call ‘easing’ at best has been shown to do nothing.

· The Fed’s significant downside risk language remained intact.

Downside risks sound like bad news to me.

· In the press conference Ben teed up QE3 in MBS space.

Which at best have been shown to do little or nothing for the macro economy.

· US payrolls, claims, vehicle sales and productivity came in better than expected.

And the real output gap if anything widened.

· S&P earnings are coming in at +18% y/y with implied corporate profits at +23 percent q/q a.r.

Reinforces the notion that it’s a good for stocks, bad for people economy.

· Mortgage speeds were much faster than expectations suggesting some easing refi pressures.

And savers holding those securities saw their incomes cut faster than expected.

· The ECB cut 25bps and indicated a dovish forward looking stance.

Which reduced euro interest income for the non govt sectors

· CME Margins were reduced.

Just means volatility was down some.

· There was a massive USDJPY intervention which may be a precursor to a Swiss style Japanese policy easing.

Which, for the US, means reduced costs of imports from Japan, which works against US exports, which should be a good thing for the US as it means for the size govt we have, taxes could be lowered to sustain demand, but becomes a bad thing as our leadership believes the US Federal deficit to be too large and so instead we get higher unemployment.

· The Swiss have indicated they want an even weaker CHF – possibly EURCHF 1.40.

When this makes a list of ‘positives’ you know the positives are pretty sorry

· The Aussies cut rates 25bps

Cutting net interest income for the economy.