• Initial Jobless Claims
• Continuing Claims
• Leading Indicators
• Philadelphia Fed.

Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 12)

Not impossible that this spike to over 400,000 might be ending, much like in 2005, this time with help from a fiscal package and and government spending moved forward from 2007 to 2008.

Continuing Claims (Apr 5)

This lags the claims a bit, and could go further, but still not looking like recession type levels

Leading Indicators (Mar)

The future is starting to look a touch better, and the Fed uses ‘forward looking’ models.

Philadelphia Fed. (Apr)

Philadelphia Fed. TABLE

The Phili area is still in a ‘soft spot’ with only prices paid showing real strength.

Twin themes remain from Q2 06: weakness and higher prices.

Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 15)

This has been trending higher but still not at recession levels.

(This series is not population adjusted so an upward drift over time is neutral.)

The American Axle strike also had some impact that will be reversed.

Continuing Claims (Mar 8)

This series is also not at recession levels but is a lagging indicator.

It shows the job situation has been weakening since Q3.

This is what export economies tend to look like – labor markets always have a bit of slack, and domestic consumption is relatively low as the population works, gets paid, and can’t afford to consume its own output domestically, with the balance getting exported.

And GDP muddles through.

Philadelphia Fed. (Mar)

Philadelphia Fed. TABLE

Better than forecast, some improvement, but still negative numbers.

For another rate cut, numbers have to come in worse than forecast.

Prices show continuing upward pressures. Fed needs these to level off.

Karim Basta:

• Headline stays very weak at -17.4 (from -24)
• Prices paid rises from 46.6 to 54.4 but Prices received drops from 24.3 to 21.2 (margin squeeze)
• Employment drops from +2.5 to -4.7; emerging consensus of -50k drop in March payrolls
• Workweek drops from -3.9 to -10
• Special survey question on Q2 growth expectations: 0%

Leading Indicators (Feb)

As expected, continuing weakness.

Stock market still the most reliable leading indicator.

Initial Jobless Claims (Feb 16)

Down a bit but lost a day in California. Chart looks like it’s drifted to a bit higher levels.

Still not recession type numbers yet, however.

Continuing Claims (Feb 9)

Also looking like it’s moved up to higher levels, but still far from typical recession levels.

Philadelphia Fed. (Feb)

Looks serious!  Strange that employment was up 2.5, however, and, of course, prices on the rise.

Leading Indicators (Jan)

Still drifting lower, but no collapse.