Personal Income Archive

2008-03-28 US Economic Releases

Personal Income (Feb) Survey 0.3% Actual 0.5% Prior 0.3% Revised n/a This is what supports the economy longer term and cushions downturns. Personal Spending (Feb) Survey 0.1% Actual 0.1% Prior 0.4% Revised n/a Down some, but with personal income remaining firm spending is sustained over the medium term. PCE Deflator YoY (Feb) ...Read More

2008-02-29 US Economic Releases

Personal Income YoY (Jan) Survey n/a Actual 4.9 Prior 5.6 Revised n/a Falling off some. Interest rates are partially responsible, as last I checked households are still net savers and have net interest income. This is one reason I lean towards the view that lower interest rates tend to slow nominal growth, ...Read More

Updated January 31 month end report

Please excuse the mix of Bloomberg and Valance graphs. Comments welcome. Went blurry eyed trying to organize it all. Markets reacted strongly to Friday’s -17,000 non-farm payroll number. Several sources called it the first negative payroll number in 4 years. How quickly they forget the first negative number was the initial August ...Read More

2008-01-31 US Economic Releases

Personal Income (Dec) Survey 0.4% Actual 0.5% Prior 0.4% Revised n/a Personal Income TABLE A bit better than expected, holding up reasonably well, as declining interest rates reduce interest income component. Personal Spending (Dec) Survey 0.1% Actual 0.2% Prior 1.1% Revised 1.0% Personal Spending TABLE OK number after last month’s large increase. ...Read More

Claims, ECI

From Karim: True to the past 5yrs pattern, claims seem to be reverting to trend after the first few weeks of January. Right, good call! IJC climbed from 306k to 375k; the trend before the January drop was around 340-350k; this number was for MLK holiday week, so an adjustment issue here ...Read More

2007-12-21 US Economic Releases

Personal Income (Nov) Survey 0.5% Actual 0.4% Prior 0.2% Revised n/a OK number. Personal Spending (Nov) Survey 0.7% Actual 1.1% Prior 0.2% Revised 0.4% Nice bounce back from a low number also revised up. Makes the two month average about 0.75%. This will cause further upward revisions of Q4 GDP. PCE Deflator ...Read More

2007-11-30 US Economic Releases

Summary:Nothing particularly alarming regarding balance of risks.Personal income and spending lower than expected. Questions are whether exports will continue pick up and support gdp, and whether this is weaker than the Fed’s Oct 31 projection. Deflator and core pce also up a touch, and year over year deflator heading north. As Karim ...Read More