Re: SNB and personal income


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(email exchange)

We’ll see if the SNB can borrow all the USD it needs without the Fed on an ongoing basis.

External debt like this is the stuff of most government financial blowups.

Low crude prices and falling US import demand are keeping USD ‘hard to get’ for the rest of the world that somehow got caught short USD, probably by funding USD assets that have declined in price.

Separately, attached is a graph of personal income that of course doesn’t ‘prove’ anything about the macro effect interest rates being the opposite of what CBs think it is.

Fed cuts have reduced government payments of interest to the non government sectors that remain net savers.

Fed ‘quantitative easing’ has also removed interest income from the non government sectors.

To paraphrase from a source I can’t recall where it was better stated, any more victories like these and we’ll be ruined.

>   
>   On Mon, Feb 2, 2009 at 9:20 AM, Mauer wrote:
>   
>   What do you make of this?
>   
>   BN 13:02 *SNB SAYS BILLS TO FINANCE TO UBS TOXIC ASSET FUND
>   1) BN 13:02 *SNB SAYS BILLS TO FINANCE TO UBS TOXIC ASSET FUND
>   2) BN 13:02 *SNB BILLS TO HAVE MATURITY OF LESS THAN YEAR
>   3) BN 13:02 *SNB TO ISSUE BILLS TO FINANCE LOAN TO SNB STABFUND
>   4) BN 13:02 *SNB SAYS DOLLAR BILLS ARE NEW MONETARY POLICY
>   INSTRUMENT
>   5) BN 13:00 *SNB TO ISSUE DOLLAR-DENOMINATED SNB BILLS

Thanks!

Didn’t know that- much appreciated!

>   
>   On Mon, Feb 2, 2009 at 10:56 AM, J A wrote:
>   
>   Warren,
>   
>   You know that there is a classic paper by Ferguson and Epstein who provide
>   archival evidence that it was the banks that convinced the Fed to reverse its
>   quantitative easing and low interest rate policy because it was driving them
>   bankrupt. All their commercial loans had defaulted and the only income
>   learning assets they had were Treasury securities, so the lower rates went the
>   lower their income and in the end they were having trouble covering operating
>   costs, so they convinced the Fed to raise rates. Much like Greenspan giving the
>   banks the yield curve to ride to generate income after the 1989-90 real estate
>   bust.
>   


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2009-02-02 USER


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Personal Income MoM (Dec)

Survey -0.4%
Actual -0.2%
Prior -0.2%
Revised -0.4%

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Personal Income YoY (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.4%
Prior 2.1%
Revised n/a

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Personal Income ALLX (Dec)

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Personal Spending (Dec)

Survey -0.9%
Actual -1.0%
Prior -0.6%
Revised -0.8%

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PCE Deflator YoY (Dec)

Survey 1.0%
Actual 0.6%
Prior 1.4%
Revised n/a

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PCE Core MoM (Dec)

Survey 0.0%
Actual 0.0%
Prior 0.0%
Revised n/a

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PCE Core YoY (Dec)

Survey 1.7%
Actual 1.7%
Prior 1.9%
Revised n/a

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ISM Manufacturing (Jan)

Survey 32.5
Actual 35.6
Prior 32.4
Revised 32.9

 
Karim writes:

  • ISM bounces but level remains at recessionary/deflationary levels.
  • Headline rises by 2.7pts and price paid by 11pts.
  • Bounces seem quite narrow in scope as only 2 of 18 industries posted a rise in orders and 1 of 18 an increase in prices (metals-which oddly, has anecdote below about year being down 20-30%).
  • Manufacturing Index 35.6/32.9
  • Prices paid 29.0/18.0
  • Production 32.1/26.3
  • New orders 33.2/23.1
  • Employment 29.9/29.9
  • Export orders 37.5/35.5
  • Imports 36.5/39.0
  • “The slowdown in the automobile industry is forcing their suppliers to reduce production and employment.” (Apparel, Leather & Allied Products)
  • “Our manufacturing is tied to the automobile industry, and we are seeing the ‘trickle down’ effect.” (Chemical Products)
  • “High inventory at customers is slowing production orders.” (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)
  • “Sales are settling in; Q4 was better than expected.” (Machinery)
  • “Consumer confidence is low. Could see the entire year being down 20 percent to 30 percent.” (Fabricated Metals)

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ISM Prices Paid (Jan)

Survey 18.0
Actual 29.0
Prior 18.0
Revised n/a

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Construction Spending MoM (Dec)

Survey -1.2%
Actual -1.4%
Prior -0.6%
Revised -1.2%

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Construction Spending YoY (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual -3.6%
Prior -4.2%
Revised n/a


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2008-12-24 USER


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MBA Mortgage Applications (Dec 20)

Survey n/a
Actual 48.0%
Prior 2.9%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Dec 20)

Survey n/a
Actual 316.50
Prior 286.10
Revised n/a

 
Picking up with lower rates.

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Dec 20)

Survey n/a
Actual 6758.60
Prior 4156.00
Revised n/a

 
Spiking with lower rates.

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Personal Income MoM (Nov)

Survey 0.0%
Actual -0.2%
Prior 0.3%
Revised 0.1%

 
Lower than expected. Lower interest income continues to bite.

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Personal Income YoY (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.5%
Prior 3.1%
Revised n/a

 
Still up but lower interest income biting.

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Personal Income ALLX (Nov)

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Personal Spending (Nov)

Survey -0.7%
Actual -0.6%
Prior -1.0%
Revised n/a

 
Not good, but lower fuel prices helping other sales.

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PCE Deflator YoY (Nov)

Survey 1.5%
Actual 1.4%
Prior 3.2%
Revised n/a

 
Way down with the big drop in fuel costs.

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PCE Core MoM (Nov)

Survey 0.0%
Actual 0.0%
Prior 0.0%
Revised n/a

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PCE Core YoY (Nov)

Survey 2.0%
Actual 1.9%
Prior 2.1%
Revised 2.0%

 
Back in the Fed’s comfort zone.

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Durable Goods Orders (Nov)

Survey -3.0%
Actual -1.0%
Prior -6.2%
Revised -8.4%

 
A little better than expected but still in decline.

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Durable Goods Orders YoY (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual -17.6%
Prior -12.9%
Revised n/a

 
Big drop.

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Durables Ex Defense MoM (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.9%
Prior -6.7%
Revised n/a

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Durables Ex Transportation MoM (Nov)

Survey -3.0%
Actual 1.2%
Prior -4.4%
Revised -6.8%

 
Bit of a blip up but nothing serious as prior revised lower.

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Durable Goods ALLX (Nov)

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Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 20)

Survey 558K
Actual 586K
Prior 554K
Revised 556K

 
May get a lot worse after the holidays.

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Continuing Claims (Dec 13)

Survey 4410K
Actual 4370K
Prior 4384K
Revised 4387K

 
Likely to move up after the holidays.

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Dec 20)


[top]

2008-11-26 USER


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Karim writes:

Lots of numbers today- none of them real good.

MBA Mortgage Applications (Nov 21)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.5%
Prior -6.2%
Revised -6.2%

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Nov 21)

Survey n/a
Actual 261.60
Prior 248.50
Revised n/a

 
Up a bit from very low levels.

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Nov 21)

Survey n/a
Actual 1254.00
Prior 1281.20
Revised n/a

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Durable Goods Orders (Oct)

Survey -3.0%
Actual -6.2%
Prior 0.8%
Revised -0.2%

 
Big fall.

Karim writes:

  • -6.2% m/m
  • -4% m/m ex-aircraft and defense (after -3.2% and -2.3% prior two months)

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Durable Goods Orders YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual -11.7%
Prior -2.5%
Revised n/a

 
Big fall in a longer term down trend.

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Durables Ex Transportation MoM (Oct)

Survey -1.6%
Actual -4.4%
Prior -1.1%
Revised -2.3%

 
Not good either.

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Durables Ex Defense MoM (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual -4.6%
Prior -1.8%
Revised n/a

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Durable Goods ALLX (Oct)

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Personal Income MoM (Oct)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.2%
Revised 0.1%

 
Income has held up better than expected.

And the consumer has deleveraged substantially.

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Personal Income YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.3%
Prior 3.2%
Revised n/a

 
Looking lower.

Will get a nice kick up with the coming fiscal adjustment.

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Personal Income ALLX (Oct)

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Personal Consumption MoM (Oct)

Survey -1.0%
Actual -1.0%
Prior -0.3%
Revised n/a

 
Consumption falling even as income continues to increase.

The consumer is recharging his batteries.

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Personal Consumption YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.3%
Prior 3.5%
Revised n/a

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PCE Deflator YoY (Oct)

Survey 3.3%
Actual 3.2%
Prior 4.2%
Revised 4.1%

 
Down some and more weak numbers to come, but the longer term trend still looks up.

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PCE Core MoM (Oct)

Survey 0.0%
Actual 0.0%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

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PCE Core YoY (Oct)

Survey 2.2%
Actual 2.1%
Prior 2.4%
Revised 2.3%

 
Higher than expected but down some, and more weak numbers on the way, but still at the high end of the Fed’s comfort zone.

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Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 22)

Survey 535K
Actual 529K
Prior 542K
Revised 543K

 
Remains very high.

Karim writes:

  • Initial claims only decline 14k to 529k after 80k rise in prior 4 weeks
  • Similar bounce with continuing, drop of 54k to 3962k (had risen 295k in prior 3 weeks)

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Continuing Claims (Nov 15)

Survey 4080K
Actual 3962K
Prior 4012K
Revised 4016K

 
Off the highs but remain very high.

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Nov 22)

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Univ. of Michigan Confidence (Nov F)

Survey 57.5
Actual 55.3
Prior 57.9
Revised n/a

 
Back through the lows.

Karim writes:

  • New low for headline confidence, from 57.9 to 55.3
  • 5yr fwd inflation expectations unchanged at 2.9

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New Home Sales (Oct)

Survey 441K
Actual 433K
Prior 464K
Revised 457K

 
Still sliding.

Karim writes:

  • -5% m/m
  • Mths supply rise from 10.9 to 11.1

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New Home Sales Total for Sale (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual 381.00
Prior 414.00
Revised n/a

 
Maybe this is why sales are falling- no new homes left for sale!

Falling sharply.

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New Home Sales MoM (Oct)

Survey -5.0%
Actual -5.3%
Prior 2.7%
Revised 0.7%

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New Home Sales YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual -40.1%
Prior -34.1%
Revised n/a

 
Might be leveling off at very low levels.

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New Home Sales Median Price (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual 218.00
Prior 221.70
Revised n/a

 
Prices falling but not collapsing.

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New Home Sales TABLE 1 (Oct)

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New Home Sales TABLE 2 (Oct)


[top]

2008-10-31 USER


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Personal Income MoM (Sep)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.5%
Revised 0.4%

 
A tick better than expected but last month revised down same.

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Personal Income YoY (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.9%
Prior 4.3%
Revised n/a

 
Looks to be on the decline as expected.

Lower interest rates are also a drag on income, as households are net savers.

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Personal Income ALLX (Sep)

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Personal Consumption MoM (Sep)

Survey -0.2%
Actual -0.3%
Prior 0.0%
Revised n/a

 
Worse than expected and took dive as the publicity around the credit crisis petrified businesses and consumers.

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Personal Consumption YoY (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.8%
Prior 4.5%
Revised n/a

 
Heading south but still growing some.

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PCE Deflator YoY (Sep)

Survey 4.1%
Actual 4.2%
Prior 4.5%
Revised n/a

 
Higher than expected and staying high even with commodities coming down.

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PCE Core MoM (Sep)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

 
Higher than expected.

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PCE Core YoY (Sep)

Survey 2.4%
Actual 2.4%
Prior 2.6%
Revised 2.5%

 
Holding firm, at least for now.

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Employment Cost Index (3Q)

Survey 0.7%
Actual 0.7%
Prior 0.7%
Revised n/a

 
Well contained.

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Employment Cost Index ALLX (3Q)

 
The surveys have a large subjective component, and have all taken dives recently.

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RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual -17.96%
Prior -17.76%
Revised n/a

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RPX Composite 28dy Index (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 219.67
Prior 224.28
Revised n/a

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Chicago Purchasing Manager (Oct)

Survey 48.0
Actual 37.8
Prior 56.7
Revised n/a

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NAPM Milwaukee (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual 42.0
Prior 46.0
Revised n/a


[top]

2008-09-29 USER


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Personal Income MoM (Aug)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.5%
Prior -0.7%
Revised -0.6%

 
Better than expected and prior month revised up a tenth. Fiscal packages don’t fade as quickly as the mainstream guesses.

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Personal Income YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.6%
Prior 4.5%
Revised n/a

 
Good enough to keep GDP muddling through, though the financial crisis could slow spending down some.

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Personal Income ALLX (Aug)

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Personal Consumption MoM (Aug)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.0%
Prior 0.2%
Revised 0.1%

 
Less than expected even though income holding up, and prior revised up a tenth. Income in excess of spending doesn’t usually persist.

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Personal Consumption YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.6%
Prior 4.9%
Revised n/a

 
On the soft side and continuing its gradual decline.

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PCE Deflator YoY (Aug)

Survey 4.5%
Actual 4.5%
Prior 4.5%
Revised 4.6%

 
As expected and too high for Fed comfort.

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PCE Core MoM (Aug)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.3%
Revised n/a

 
Remains firm.

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PCE Core YoY (Aug)

Survey 2.4%
Actual 2.6%
Prior 2.4%
Revised 2.5%

 
Higher than expected, prior revised up a tenth, and looks to be breaking out. Not encouraging for the Fed. They want it below 2.0%.

Karim writes:

  • Nominal PCE unchanged in August after two consecutive declines.

  • Real consumer spending tracking -2.0% (annualized) thus far in Q3.

  • Inventory rebound should keep GDP positive in Q3.

  • Core deflator up 0.2% m/m and 2.6% y/y.


[top]

2008-08-29 US Economic Releases


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Personal Income MoM (Jul)

Survey -0.2%
Actual -0.7%
Prior 0.1%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

Personal Income YoY (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.2%
Prior 5.5%
Revised n/a

Still at higher levels than before the rebates and far from a consumer collapse.

[top][end]

Personal Income TABLE 1 (Jul)

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Personal Income TABLE 2 (Jul)

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Personal Spending MoM (Jul)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.6%
Revised n/a

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Personal Spending YoY (Jul)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.6%
Revised n/a

Doesn’t look all that bad to me.

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PCE Deflator YOY (Jul)

Survey 4.5%
Actual 4.5%
Prior 4.1%
Revised 4.0%

This is not the kind of chart the Fed wants to see.

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PCE Core MoM (Jul)

Survey 0.3%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.3%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

PCE Core YoY (Jul)

Survey 2.4%
Actual 2.4%
Prior 2.3%
Revised n/a

Neither is this.

[top][end]

PCE ALLX 1 (Jul)

[top][end]

PCE ALLX 2 (Jul)

Karim writes:

  • Not much to alter Fed’s view or likely course with this data
  • Real PCE down -0.3% m/m for July, in line with expectations. Nominal PCE up 0.2%.
  • Personal income down 0.7%, again as expected, and due to drop in government transfers (fiscal package ended)
  • Core PCE deflator up 0.3% m/m and 2.4% y/y. At Jackson Hole, Bernanke stated he expected inflation to ‘moderate later this year and next’, meaning he still sees a few more months of possible upward pressure.

Yes, and he has been saying he expects headline inflation to moderate at every speaking event for the last few years.

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RPX Composite 28dy Index (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual 230.00
Prior 233.37
Revised n/a

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RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual -17.15%
Prior -15.60%
Revised n/a

[top][end]


Chicago Purchasing Manager (Aug)

Survey 50.0
Actual 57.9
Prior 50.8
Revised n/a

Upside surprise here.

[top][end]

Chicago Purchasing Manager TABLE 1 (Aug)

Prices paid still way high; big dip in employment.

[top][end]

Chicago Purchasing Manager TABLE 2 (Aug)

Karim writes:

  • Chicago PMI rises from 50.8 to 57.9; but orders and production components (each up sharply) at odds with employment component (down sharply), so report to be taken with a grain of salt.

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U of Michigan Confidence (Aug F)

Survey 62.0
Actual 63.0
Prior 61.7
Revised n/a

Karim writes:

  • Final UMICH survey for August shows minor improvement in confidence (61.7 to 63.0) and no change in inflation expectations components.
  • ISM and payrolls next week to weigh more heavily

Confidence turning up with the rebates.

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U of Michigan Consumer Attitudes TABLE (Aug F)

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Inflation Expectations 1yr Fwd (Aug F)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.8%
Prior 5.1%
Revised n/a

The Fed worries these will get embedded.

Personally, I don’t see inflation as a function of expectations but they do.

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Inflation Expectations 5yr Fwd (Aug 5)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.2%
Prior 3.2%
Revised n/a

Too high still.

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NAPM-Milwaukee (Aug)

Survey 44.0
Actual 43.0
Prior 44.0
Revised n/a

A bit worse than expected but still off the bottom.

[top][end]

NAPM-Milwaukee ALLX (Aug)


[top]

2008-06-27 Daily US Economic Releases


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Personal Income (May)

Survey 0.4%
Actual 1.9%
Prior 0.2%
Revised 0.3%

Higher than expected as fiscal rebates kick in, and last month revised up some as well.

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Personal Spending (May)

Survey 0.7%
Actual 0.8%
Prior 0.2%
Revised 0.4%

Also higher than expected with consumers spending a higher % of fiscal rebates than expected.

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PCE Deflator YoY (May)

Survey 3.2%
Actual 3.1%
Prior 3.2%
Revised n/a

A bit lower than expected.

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PCE Core MoM (May)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.1%
Prior 0.1%
Revised n/a

Also lower than expected.

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PCE Core YoY (May)

Survey 2.2%
Actual 2.1%
Prior 2.1%
Revised n/a

This is lower than expected as well.

[top][end]


Karim writes:

  • Core PCE deflator up 0.1% in May, unch at 2.1% y/y.
  • Headline deflator up 0.4% and rises from 3.1% to 3.2%.
  • Personal income up 1.8% due to 25.6% rise in ‘other’ government transfer payments (tax rebates); wage and salary income up 0.3% after -0.1% read prior month
  • Personal spending up 0.4%

Yesterday Kohn mentioned there were only a few signs of higher headline inflation ’embedding’ themselves into core; this report another sign of that.


U of Michigan Confidence (Jun F)

Survey 56.7
Actual 56.4
Prior 56.7
Revised n/a

Karim Writes:

  • Drop from May to June (59.8 to 56.4); 3rd lowest reading in 46yr history of survey.
  • Record low (21%) reported income gains, reflecting job losses and housing and equity wealth declines.
  • Rising food and energy prices also contributed to worst buying climate survey for durables since 1980.
  • Current conditions fell 5.7pts.
  • Expectations component fell 2pts; this now 38% off of Jan 2007 high; survey report stated that 25-35% drop in expectations was typical in advance of Post-WW 2 recessions.
  • 1yr fwd inflation expectations drop from 5.2% to 5.1% in June; 5yr fwd unch at 3.4%.


  • [top]

2008-05-30 US Economic Releases


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2008-05-30 Personal Income

Personal Income (Apr)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.3%
Revised 0.4%

Soldiering on, and would have been higher if the Fed hadn’t cut rates as interest income is a meaningful factor.

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2008-05-30 Personal Spending

Personal Spending (Apr)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.4%
Revised n/a

Also holding up and supporting GDP at muddling through levels.

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2008-05-30 PCE Deflator YoY

PCE Deflator YoY (Apr)

Survey 3.1%
Actual 3.2%
Prior 3.2%
Revised n/a

Zig-zagging its way higher as crude prices rise and get passed through to everything else over time.

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2008-05-30 PCE Core MoM

PCE Core MoM (Apr)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.1%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

Taking a breather for a month or so.

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2008-05-30 PCE Core YoY

PCE Core YoY (Apr)

Survey 2.1%
Actual 2.1%
Prior 2.1%
Revised n/a

In the 1970’s this moved through 3% as headline moved through 6%.  Might be just a few months away.

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2008-05-30 Chicago Purchasing Manager

Chicago Purchasing Manager (May)

Survey 48.5
Actual 49.1
Prior 48.3
Revised n/a

Another indicator coming in better than expected and showing signs it has bottomed.

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2008-05-30 U. of Michigan Confidence

U. of Michigan Confidence (May F)

Survey 59.5
Actual 59.8
Prior 59.5
Revised n/a

Though a tad better than expected, still down and out due to rapidly rising inflation expectations.

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2008-05-30 NAPM-Milwaukee

NAPM-Milwaukee

Survey 47.0
Actual 45.0
Prior 48.0
Revised n/a

Not looking cheerful in Milwaukee.


[top]

2008-05-01 US Economic Releases


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2008-05-01 Challenger Job Cuts YoY

Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual 27.4%
Prior 9.4%
Revised n/a

Seem to be drifting higher.

[top]



2008-05-01 Personal Income

Personal Income (Mar)

Survey 0.4%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.5%
Revised n/a

Not the stuff of recessions.

[top]



2008-05-01 Personal Spending

Personal Spending (Mar)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.4%
Prior 0.1%
Revised n/a

Muddling through.

[top]


2008-05-01 PCE Deflator YoY

PCE Deflator YoY (Mar)

Survey 3.2%
Actual 3.2%
Prior 3.4%
Revised n/a

Still far too high for comfort for a mainstream economist.

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2008-05-01 PCE Core MoM

PCE Core MoM (Mar)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.1%
Revised n/a

I’m anticipation more 0.3%s for the rest of this year.

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2008-05-01 PCE Core YoY

PCE Core YoY (Mar)

Survey 2.0%
Actual 2.1%
Prior 2.0%
Revised n/a

Starting to move back up.

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2008-05-01 Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 26)

Survey 365K
Actual 380K
Prior 342K
Revised 345K

No recession yet.

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2008-05-01 Continuing Claims

Continuing Claims (Apr 19)

Survey 2950K
Actual 3019K
Prior 2934K
Revised 2945K

No recession yet.

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2008-05-01 ISM Manufacturing

ISM Manufacturing (Apr)

Survey 48.0
Actual 48.6
Prior 48.6
Revised n/a

Staying above recession levels.

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2008-05-01 ISM Prices Paid

ISM Prices Paid (Apr)

Survey 83.5
Actual 84.5
Prior 83.5
Revised n/a

Inflation ripping!

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2008-05-01 Construction Spending MoM

Construction Spending MoM (Mar)

Survey -0.7%
Actual -1.1%
Prior -0.3%
Revised 0.4%

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2008-05-01 Construction Spending YoY

Construction Spending YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual -3.4%
Prior -2.2%
Revised n/a

Still weak.

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Total Vehicle Sales (Apr)

Survey 15.0M
Actual
Prior 15.1M
Revised

[comments]

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Domestic Vehicle Sales (Apr)

Survey 11.4M
Actual
Prior 11.1M
Revised

[comments]


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