Personal Income Archive

Personal Income and Consumption, Employment reports and productivity

Full size image Highlights November was an uncertain month for the consumer in terms of sentiment. But in terms of hard numbers, it was a good month. Personal income rebounded 0.2 percent, following a 0.1 percent dip in October. But the important wages and salaries component improved to a 0.4 percent gain ...Read More

Employment and personal income

Employment continues to grow at the pace we’ve seen for the last couple of years at a pace that’s perhaps a bit ahead of population growth (chart). The question is whether this is sufficient for the Fed to taper, which I’d say is anyone’s guess right now. The FOMC clearly doesn’t like ...Read More

Economy Faces a Jolt as Benefit Checks Run Out

When there is a lack of aggregate demand due to high ‘savings desires’ as the unemployed take jobs when benefits expire, it just means someone else loses a job, and then some, as govt deficit spending falls as well, further reducing aggregate demand. It also serves to drive down wages, as per ...Read More

Non-Mfg ISM

With modest GDP growth and a 1.4 trillion deficit downside to equities can only come from an external shock. High unemployment keeps the Fed on hold and the 0 rate policy keeps costs of production down and keeps personal income gains modest. At least for now, the combo of 0 rates and ...Read More

PCE/Personal Income

Very good, looks like continuing muddling through with moderate growth unemployment drifting lower in a few months when there are no more hours to add to the existing labor force. Welcome to Japan, Mr. US bond market? Ok market for stocks, especially with Euro zone risk fading. Just China h2 risk left, ...Read More

JPMorgan, Citigroup Expand in ‘Jumbo’ Home Mortgages

[Skip to the end] Lending follows the markets. As the economy improves banks and other lenders figure it out and jump in. Also, today’s news on personal income is very bullish as well. It shows fiscal policy ‘works’ as it did for q2 last year. The concern is that the ‘savings rate’ ...Read More

2009-04-30 USER

[Skip to the end]   Karim writes: Initial claims -13k to 631k; continuing claims up another 133k (up every week this year) to 6271k Suggests another 650-700k drop in payrolls and rise in ue rate from 8.5% to 9% for April employment report Those numbers will in turn cause the data we ...Read More

2009-03-27 USER

[Skip to the end] Personal Income MoM (Released 8:30 EST) Personal Income YoY (Released 8:30 EST) Personal Income ALLX (Released 8:30 EST) Personal Spending (Released 8:30 EST) PCE Deflator YoY (Released 8:30 EST) PCE Core MoM (Released 8:30 EST) PCE Core YoY (Released 8:30 EST) U of Michigan Confidence (Released 10:00 EST) ...Read More

More detail on Personal Income gains

[Skip to the end] This is relentless and tends to cushion downturns: Personal Income and Outlays Mar 2 (BEA) — Personal current transfer receipts increased $66.6 billion in January, compared with an increase of $29.9 billion in December. The January change in current transfer receipts reflected 5.8-percent cost-of-living adjustments to social security ...Read More

2009-03-02 USER

[Skip to the end] Personal Income MoM (Released 8:30 EST) Personal Income YoY (Released 8:30 EST) Personal Income ALLX (Released 8:30 EST) Personal Spending (Released 8:30 EST) PCE Deflator YoY (Released 8:30 EST) PCE Core MoM (Released 8:30 EST) PCE Core YoY (Released 8:30 EST) ISM Manufacturing (Released 10:00 EST) ISM Prices ...Read More