2009-04-30 USER


[Skip to the end]

 
Karim writes:

  • Initial claims -13k to 631k; continuing claims up another 133k (up every week this year) to 6271k
  • Suggests another 650-700k drop in payrolls and rise in ue rate from 8.5% to 9% for April employment report
  • Those numbers will in turn cause the data we received today on incomes and wages for March, to worsen from already historically weak levels.
  • Personal income -0.3% m/m and +0.3% y/y
  • Wage and salary component of income -0.5% m/m and -1.2% y/y (prior all-time low was -0.3% y/y)
  • Personal spending -0.2%. Q1 profile for real personal spending= +0.9% in Jan, +0.1% in Feb, and -0.2% in Mar. This will create a challenge for the PCE component of GDP for Q2.
  • ECI up 0.3% q/q and 2.1% y/y in Q1, both all-time lows
  • Chicago PMI for April up from 31.4 to 40.1
  • Looks like national ISM should bounce to about 39-40 tomorrow after 36.3
  • Fed comments yesterday seem to echo what I heard from ECB/BOE: Recent bounce in PMIs seem unrelated to prospects for recovery in late 2009/early 2010.


Personal Income MoM (Mar)

Survey -0.2%
Actual -0.3%
Prior -0.2%
Revised n/a

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Personal Income YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.3%
Prior 1.0%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

Personal Income ALLX (Mar)

[top][end]

Personal Spending (Mar)

Survey -0.1%
Actual -0.2%
Prior 0.2%
Revised 0.4%

[top][end]

PCE Deflator YoY (Mar)

Survey 0.7%
Actual 0.6%
Prior 1.0%
Revised 0.9%

[top][end]

PCE Core MoM (Mar)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

PCE Core YoY (Mar)

Survey 1.8%
Actual 1.8%
Prior 1.8%
Revised n/a

[top][end]


Employment Cost Index (1Q)

Survey 0.5%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.5%
Revised 0.6%

[top][end]

Employment Cost Index ALLX (1Q)

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Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 25)

Survey 640K
Actual 631K
Prior 640K
Revised 645K

[top][end]

Continuing Claims (Apr 18)

Survey 6200K
Actual 6271K
Prior 6137K
Revised 6138K

[top][end]

Jobless Claims ALLX (Apr 25)

[top][end]


Chicago Purchasing Manager (Apr)

Survey 35.0
Actual 40.1
Prior 31.4
Revised n/a

[top][end]

NAPM Milwaukee (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual 39.0
Prior 30.0
Revised n/a


[top]

2009-03-27 USER


[Skip to the end]


Personal Income MoM (Feb)

Survey -0.1%
Actual -0.2%
Prior 0.4%
Revised 0.2%

 
Karim writes:

  • Personal income down 0.2%, down 4 of last 5mths, and up 1% y/y
  • Wage and salary income down 0.4%, down 4mths in a row, and -0.2% y/y
  • Personal spending up 0.2%, and down 0.2% in real terms
  • Based on Jan-Feb data, real Q1 spending may be flat from -4.3% in Q4
  • But because of weakening trend thru Q1, sets up for another negative in Q2
  • Saw one forecaster change Q1 estimate from -7.2% to -6.5% and leave Q2 estimate unch at -4.8%

[top][end]

Personal Income YoY (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.0%
Prior 1.4%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

Personal Income ALLX (Feb)

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Personal Spending (Feb)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.6%
Revised 1.0%

[top][end]

PCE Deflator YoY (Feb)

Survey 0.8%
Actual 1.0%
Prior 0.7%
Revised 0.8%

[top][end]

PCE Core MoM (Feb)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.1%
Revised 0.2%

[top][end]

PCE Core YoY (Feb)

Survey 1.6%
Actual 1.8%
Prior 1.6%
Revised 1.7%

[top][end]

U of Michigan Confidence (Mar F)

Survey 56.8
Actual 57.3
Prior 56.6
Revised n/a

 
Karim writes:

  • Final Michigan survey for March showed small upward revision in confidence: 56.6 to 57.3 (Feb was 56.3)
  • 5-10yr inflation expectations revised lower: 2.8 to 2.6 (Feb was 3.1)
  • [top][end]

    U of Michigan Confidence TABLE Inflation Expectations (Feb)


    [top]

2009-03-02 USER


[Skip to the end]


Personal Income MoM (Jan)

Survey -0.2%
Actual 0.4%
Prior -0.2%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

Personal Income YoY (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.9%
Prior 1.6%
Revised n/a

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Personal Income ALLX (Jan)

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Personal Spending (Jan)

Survey 0.4%
Actual 0.6%
Prior -1.0%
Revised n/a

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PCE Deflator YoY (Jan)

Survey 0.5%
Actual 0.7%
Prior 0.6%
Revised 0.8%

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PCE Core MoM (Jan)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.1%
Prior 0.0%
Revised n/a

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PCE Core YoY (Jan)

Survey 1.6%
Actual 1.6%
Prior 1.7%
Revised n/a

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ISM Manufacturing (Feb)

Survey 33.8
Actual 35.8
Prior 35.6
Revised n/a

[top][end]

ISM Prices Paid (Feb)

Survey 33.5
Actual 35.8
Prior 35.6
Revised n/a

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Construction Spending MoM (Jan)

Survey -1.5%
Actual -3.3%
Prior -1.4%
Revised -2.4%

[top][end]

Construction Spending YoY (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual -9.1%
Prior -6.7%
Revised n/a


[top]

2008-11-26 USER


[Skip to the end]


Karim writes:

Lots of numbers today- none of them real good.

MBA Mortgage Applications (Nov 21)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.5%
Prior -6.2%
Revised -6.2%

[top][end]

MBA Purchasing Applications (Nov 21)

Survey n/a
Actual 261.60
Prior 248.50
Revised n/a

 
Up a bit from very low levels.

[top][end]

MBA Refinancing Applications (Nov 21)

Survey n/a
Actual 1254.00
Prior 1281.20
Revised n/a

[top][end]


Durable Goods Orders (Oct)

Survey -3.0%
Actual -6.2%
Prior 0.8%
Revised -0.2%

 
Big fall.

Karim writes:

  • -6.2% m/m
  • -4% m/m ex-aircraft and defense (after -3.2% and -2.3% prior two months)

[top][end]

Durable Goods Orders YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual -11.7%
Prior -2.5%
Revised n/a

 
Big fall in a longer term down trend.

[top][end]

Durables Ex Transportation MoM (Oct)

Survey -1.6%
Actual -4.4%
Prior -1.1%
Revised -2.3%

 
Not good either.

[top][end]

Durables Ex Defense MoM (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual -4.6%
Prior -1.8%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

Durable Goods ALLX (Oct)

[top][end]


Personal Income MoM (Oct)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.2%
Revised 0.1%

 
Income has held up better than expected.

And the consumer has deleveraged substantially.

[top][end]

Personal Income YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.3%
Prior 3.2%
Revised n/a

 
Looking lower.

Will get a nice kick up with the coming fiscal adjustment.

[top][end]

Personal Income ALLX (Oct)

[top][end]

Personal Consumption MoM (Oct)

Survey -1.0%
Actual -1.0%
Prior -0.3%
Revised n/a

 
Consumption falling even as income continues to increase.

The consumer is recharging his batteries.

[top][end]

Personal Consumption YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.3%
Prior 3.5%
Revised n/a

[top][end]


PCE Deflator YoY (Oct)

Survey 3.3%
Actual 3.2%
Prior 4.2%
Revised 4.1%

 
Down some and more weak numbers to come, but the longer term trend still looks up.

[top][end]

PCE Core MoM (Oct)

Survey 0.0%
Actual 0.0%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

PCE Core YoY (Oct)

Survey 2.2%
Actual 2.1%
Prior 2.4%
Revised 2.3%

 
Higher than expected but down some, and more weak numbers on the way, but still at the high end of the Fed’s comfort zone.

[top][end]


Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 22)

Survey 535K
Actual 529K
Prior 542K
Revised 543K

 
Remains very high.

Karim writes:

  • Initial claims only decline 14k to 529k after 80k rise in prior 4 weeks
  • Similar bounce with continuing, drop of 54k to 3962k (had risen 295k in prior 3 weeks)

[top][end]

Continuing Claims (Nov 15)

Survey 4080K
Actual 3962K
Prior 4012K
Revised 4016K

 
Off the highs but remain very high.

[top][end]

Jobless Claims ALLX (Nov 22)

[top][end]


Univ. of Michigan Confidence (Nov F)

Survey 57.5
Actual 55.3
Prior 57.9
Revised n/a

 
Back through the lows.

Karim writes:

  • New low for headline confidence, from 57.9 to 55.3
  • 5yr fwd inflation expectations unchanged at 2.9

[top][end]


New Home Sales (Oct)

Survey 441K
Actual 433K
Prior 464K
Revised 457K

 
Still sliding.

Karim writes:

  • -5% m/m
  • Mths supply rise from 10.9 to 11.1

[top][end]

New Home Sales Total for Sale (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual 381.00
Prior 414.00
Revised n/a

 
Maybe this is why sales are falling- no new homes left for sale!

Falling sharply.

[top][end]

New Home Sales MoM (Oct)

Survey -5.0%
Actual -5.3%
Prior 2.7%
Revised 0.7%

[top][end]

New Home Sales YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual -40.1%
Prior -34.1%
Revised n/a

 
Might be leveling off at very low levels.

[top][end]

New Home Sales Median Price (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual 218.00
Prior 221.70
Revised n/a

 
Prices falling but not collapsing.

[top][end]

New Home Sales TABLE 1 (Oct)

[top][end]

New Home Sales TABLE 2 (Oct)


[top]

2008-10-31 USER


[Skip to the end]


Personal Income MoM (Sep)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.5%
Revised 0.4%

 
A tick better than expected but last month revised down same.

[top][end]

Personal Income YoY (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.9%
Prior 4.3%
Revised n/a

 
Looks to be on the decline as expected.

Lower interest rates are also a drag on income, as households are net savers.

[top][end]

Personal Income ALLX (Sep)

[top][end]

Personal Consumption MoM (Sep)

Survey -0.2%
Actual -0.3%
Prior 0.0%
Revised n/a

 
Worse than expected and took dive as the publicity around the credit crisis petrified businesses and consumers.

[top][end]

Personal Consumption YoY (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.8%
Prior 4.5%
Revised n/a

 
Heading south but still growing some.

[top][end]

PCE Deflator YoY (Sep)

Survey 4.1%
Actual 4.2%
Prior 4.5%
Revised n/a

 
Higher than expected and staying high even with commodities coming down.

[top][end]

PCE Core MoM (Sep)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

 
Higher than expected.

[top][end]

PCE Core YoY (Sep)

Survey 2.4%
Actual 2.4%
Prior 2.6%
Revised 2.5%

 
Holding firm, at least for now.

[top][end]

Employment Cost Index (3Q)

Survey 0.7%
Actual 0.7%
Prior 0.7%
Revised n/a

 
Well contained.

[top][end]

Employment Cost Index ALLX (3Q)

 
The surveys have a large subjective component, and have all taken dives recently.

[top][end]

RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual -17.96%
Prior -17.76%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

RPX Composite 28dy Index (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 219.67
Prior 224.28
Revised n/a

[top][end]

Chicago Purchasing Manager (Oct)

Survey 48.0
Actual 37.8
Prior 56.7
Revised n/a

[top][end]

NAPM Milwaukee (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual 42.0
Prior 46.0
Revised n/a


[top]

2008-09-29 USER


[Skip to the end]


Personal Income MoM (Aug)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.5%
Prior -0.7%
Revised -0.6%

 
Better than expected and prior month revised up a tenth. Fiscal packages don’t fade as quickly as the mainstream guesses.

[top][end]

Personal Income YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.6%
Prior 4.5%
Revised n/a

 
Good enough to keep GDP muddling through, though the financial crisis could slow spending down some.

[top][end]

Personal Income ALLX (Aug)

[top][end]

Personal Consumption MoM (Aug)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.0%
Prior 0.2%
Revised 0.1%

 
Less than expected even though income holding up, and prior revised up a tenth. Income in excess of spending doesn’t usually persist.

[top][end]

Personal Consumption YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.6%
Prior 4.9%
Revised n/a

 
On the soft side and continuing its gradual decline.

[top][end]


PCE Deflator YoY (Aug)

Survey 4.5%
Actual 4.5%
Prior 4.5%
Revised 4.6%

 
As expected and too high for Fed comfort.

[top][end]

PCE Core MoM (Aug)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.3%
Revised n/a

 
Remains firm.

[top][end]

PCE Core YoY (Aug)

Survey 2.4%
Actual 2.6%
Prior 2.4%
Revised 2.5%

 
Higher than expected, prior revised up a tenth, and looks to be breaking out. Not encouraging for the Fed. They want it below 2.0%.

Karim writes:

  • Nominal PCE unchanged in August after two consecutive declines.

  • Real consumer spending tracking -2.0% (annualized) thus far in Q3.

  • Inventory rebound should keep GDP positive in Q3.

  • Core deflator up 0.2% m/m and 2.6% y/y.


[top]

2008-08-29 US Economic Releases


[Skip to the end]


Personal Income MoM (Jul)

Survey -0.2%
Actual -0.7%
Prior 0.1%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

Personal Income YoY (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.2%
Prior 5.5%
Revised n/a

Still at higher levels than before the rebates and far from a consumer collapse.

[top][end]

Personal Income TABLE 1 (Jul)

[top][end]

Personal Income TABLE 2 (Jul)

[top][end]


Personal Spending MoM (Jul)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.6%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

Personal Spending YoY (Jul)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.6%
Revised n/a

Doesn’t look all that bad to me.

[top][end]

PCE Deflator YOY (Jul)

Survey 4.5%
Actual 4.5%
Prior 4.1%
Revised 4.0%

This is not the kind of chart the Fed wants to see.

[top][end]

PCE Core MoM (Jul)

Survey 0.3%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.3%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

PCE Core YoY (Jul)

Survey 2.4%
Actual 2.4%
Prior 2.3%
Revised n/a

Neither is this.

[top][end]

PCE ALLX 1 (Jul)

[top][end]

PCE ALLX 2 (Jul)

Karim writes:

  • Not much to alter Fed’s view or likely course with this data
  • Real PCE down -0.3% m/m for July, in line with expectations. Nominal PCE up 0.2%.
  • Personal income down 0.7%, again as expected, and due to drop in government transfers (fiscal package ended)
  • Core PCE deflator up 0.3% m/m and 2.4% y/y. At Jackson Hole, Bernanke stated he expected inflation to ‘moderate later this year and next’, meaning he still sees a few more months of possible upward pressure.

Yes, and he has been saying he expects headline inflation to moderate at every speaking event for the last few years.

[top][end]


RPX Composite 28dy Index (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual 230.00
Prior 233.37
Revised n/a

[top][end]

RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual -17.15%
Prior -15.60%
Revised n/a

[top][end]


Chicago Purchasing Manager (Aug)

Survey 50.0
Actual 57.9
Prior 50.8
Revised n/a

Upside surprise here.

[top][end]

Chicago Purchasing Manager TABLE 1 (Aug)

Prices paid still way high; big dip in employment.

[top][end]

Chicago Purchasing Manager TABLE 2 (Aug)

Karim writes:

  • Chicago PMI rises from 50.8 to 57.9; but orders and production components (each up sharply) at odds with employment component (down sharply), so report to be taken with a grain of salt.

[top][end]


U of Michigan Confidence (Aug F)

Survey 62.0
Actual 63.0
Prior 61.7
Revised n/a

Karim writes:

  • Final UMICH survey for August shows minor improvement in confidence (61.7 to 63.0) and no change in inflation expectations components.
  • ISM and payrolls next week to weigh more heavily

Confidence turning up with the rebates.

[top][end]

U of Michigan Consumer Attitudes TABLE (Aug F)

[top][end]


Inflation Expectations 1yr Fwd (Aug F)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.8%
Prior 5.1%
Revised n/a

The Fed worries these will get embedded.

Personally, I don’t see inflation as a function of expectations but they do.

[top][end]

Inflation Expectations 5yr Fwd (Aug 5)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.2%
Prior 3.2%
Revised n/a

Too high still.

[top][end]

NAPM-Milwaukee (Aug)

Survey 44.0
Actual 43.0
Prior 44.0
Revised n/a

A bit worse than expected but still off the bottom.

[top][end]

NAPM-Milwaukee ALLX (Aug)


[top]

2008-08-04 US Economic Releases


[Skip to the end]


Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual 140.8%
Prior 46.7%
Revised n/a

Starting to reflect the labor market weakness.

[top][end]

Challenger Job Cuts TABLE (Jul)

[top][end]


Personal Income MoM (Jun)

Survey -0.2%
Actual 0.1%
Prior 1.9%
Revised 1.8%

Better than expected and looking ok.

[top][end]

Personal Income YoY (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual 5.7%
Prior 6.0%
Revised n/a

Holding up with the fiscal package kicking in along with other government spending.

[top][end]

Personal Income ALLX (Jun)

[top][end]


Personal Spending MoM (Jun)

Survey 0.4%
Actual 0.6%
Prior 0.8%
Revised n/a

Also better than expected for same reasons.

[top][end]

Personal Spending YoY (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual 5.3%
Prior 5.0%
Revised n/a

Looking pretty good here, too.

[top][end]

PCE Deflator YOY (Jun)

Survey 3.7%
Actual 4.1%
Prior 3.1%
Revised 3.5%

ugly number for the Fed tomorrow.

[top][end]

PCE Core MoM (Jun)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.1%
Revised 0.2%

Fed wary of headline leaking into core. This is not encouraging.

[top][end]

PCE Core YoY (Jun)

Survey 2.2%
Actual 2.3%
Prior 2.1%
Revised 2.2%

Also moving the wrong way for the Fed, and they know headline numbers leak into core with substantial lags.

[top][end]

Personal Spending ALLX 1 (Jun)

[top][end]

Personal Spending ALLX 2 (Jun)

[top][end]


Factory Orders MoM (Jun)

Survey 0.7%
Actual 1.7%
Prior 0.6%
Revised 0.9%

Government and exports providing the support at the macro level.

[top][end]

Factory Orders YoY (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual 7.1%
Prior 5.4%
Revised n/a

Looks to be moving up nicely.

[top][end]

Factory Orders ALLX (Jun)


[top]

2008-05-30 US Economic Releases


[Skip to the end]



2008-05-30 Personal Income

Personal Income (Apr)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.3%
Revised 0.4%

Soldiering on, and would have been higher if the Fed hadn’t cut rates as interest income is a meaningful factor.

[top][end]



2008-05-30 Personal Spending

Personal Spending (Apr)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.4%
Revised n/a

Also holding up and supporting GDP at muddling through levels.

[top][end]



2008-05-30 PCE Deflator YoY

PCE Deflator YoY (Apr)

Survey 3.1%
Actual 3.2%
Prior 3.2%
Revised n/a

Zig-zagging its way higher as crude prices rise and get passed through to everything else over time.

[top][end]



2008-05-30 PCE Core MoM

PCE Core MoM (Apr)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.1%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

Taking a breather for a month or so.

[top][end]



2008-05-30 PCE Core YoY

PCE Core YoY (Apr)

Survey 2.1%
Actual 2.1%
Prior 2.1%
Revised n/a

In the 1970’s this moved through 3% as headline moved through 6%.  Might be just a few months away.

[top][end]



2008-05-30 Chicago Purchasing Manager

Chicago Purchasing Manager (May)

Survey 48.5
Actual 49.1
Prior 48.3
Revised n/a

Another indicator coming in better than expected and showing signs it has bottomed.

[top][end]



2008-05-30 U. of Michigan Confidence

U. of Michigan Confidence (May F)

Survey 59.5
Actual 59.8
Prior 59.5
Revised n/a

Though a tad better than expected, still down and out due to rapidly rising inflation expectations.

[top][end]



2008-05-30 NAPM-Milwaukee

NAPM-Milwaukee

Survey 47.0
Actual 45.0
Prior 48.0
Revised n/a

Not looking cheerful in Milwaukee.


[top]

2008-05-01 US Economic Releases


[Skip to the end]



2008-05-01 Challenger Job Cuts YoY

Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual 27.4%
Prior 9.4%
Revised n/a

Seem to be drifting higher.

[top]



2008-05-01 Personal Income

Personal Income (Mar)

Survey 0.4%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.5%
Revised n/a

Not the stuff of recessions.

[top]



2008-05-01 Personal Spending

Personal Spending (Mar)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.4%
Prior 0.1%
Revised n/a

Muddling through.

[top]


2008-05-01 PCE Deflator YoY

PCE Deflator YoY (Mar)

Survey 3.2%
Actual 3.2%
Prior 3.4%
Revised n/a

Still far too high for comfort for a mainstream economist.

[top]



2008-05-01 PCE Core MoM

PCE Core MoM (Mar)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.1%
Revised n/a

I’m anticipation more 0.3%s for the rest of this year.

[top]


2008-05-01 PCE Core YoY

PCE Core YoY (Mar)

Survey 2.0%
Actual 2.1%
Prior 2.0%
Revised n/a

Starting to move back up.

[top]



2008-05-01 Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 26)

Survey 365K
Actual 380K
Prior 342K
Revised 345K

No recession yet.

[top]



2008-05-01 Continuing Claims

Continuing Claims (Apr 19)

Survey 2950K
Actual 3019K
Prior 2934K
Revised 2945K

No recession yet.

[top]



2008-05-01 ISM Manufacturing

ISM Manufacturing (Apr)

Survey 48.0
Actual 48.6
Prior 48.6
Revised n/a

Staying above recession levels.

[top]



2008-05-01 ISM Prices Paid

ISM Prices Paid (Apr)

Survey 83.5
Actual 84.5
Prior 83.5
Revised n/a

Inflation ripping!

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2008-05-01 Construction Spending MoM

Construction Spending MoM (Mar)

Survey -0.7%
Actual -1.1%
Prior -0.3%
Revised 0.4%

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2008-05-01 Construction Spending YoY

Construction Spending YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual -3.4%
Prior -2.2%
Revised n/a

Still weak.

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Total Vehicle Sales (Apr)

Survey 15.0M
Actual
Prior 15.1M
Revised

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Domestic Vehicle Sales (Apr)

Survey 11.4M
Actual
Prior 11.1M
Revised

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