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Iraqi Oil Minister Sees No Output Change from OPEC

(Reuters) Iraq’s oil minister Hussain al-Shahristani said on Thursday there was no sign of any shortage of oil in international markets and he did not expect OPEC to change its output levels at a meeting this week.

Saudis might like letting prices sag in front of meetings to stave off production increase talk.

“Quite frankly, the data we are looking at do not show any shortage of oil on the market. The prices are not really affected by any fundamental market forces,”

Right, just the Saudis (and probably Russians as well) setting price and letting the quantity they pump adjust, aka acting as swing producer.

Shahristani said ahead of the meeting on Friday of OPEC oil ministers in Vienna.

Twin themes continue – moderating demand and inflation.

So far, the Fed is directing all its efforts to the demand issue, including support for the coming fiscal package.

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Fed cuts increasing demand and lowering the dollar support crude prices

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Oil futures jump back above $90 a barrel

by John Wilen

Oil futures jumped back above $90 a barrel Friday, adding to the previous session’s sharp gains on a view that the recession worries that pulled prices lower in recent weeks may have been overblown.

So markets are now linking rising oil prices to a stronger economy? This is a change in rhetoric from the previous talk that high oil prices were slowing demand, to the current talk that high demand is driving up oil prices.

This would signal to the Fed that markets are saying the economy is now strong enough to cause further inflation.

Energy investors were heartened by recent moves by the Federal Reserve and Congress to shore up the economy, which could prevent oil demand from slowing as much as many had feared.

The Fed doesn’t want this to happen – markets seeing their moves as supportive of higher inflation.

“This week’s emergency interest rate cut by the Fed and the economic stimulus plan proffered by Congress appear to have, for now, stemmed fears of a looming recession in the U.S.,” said Addison Armstrong, director of exchange traded markets at TFS Energy Futures LLC, of Stamford, Conn., in a research note.

Word that Chinese oil demand grew by 6.4 percent in December, the highest rate in months, contributed to oil’s advance.

Concerns that demand from the booming Chinese and Indian economies is outstripping global oil supplies helped push oil to records above $100 earlier this month.

Rising oil prices are also signaling that India and China continue to grow quickly enough to drive up prices.

Light, sweet crude for March delivery rose $1.30 to settle at $90.71 on the New York Mercantile Exchange after rising as high as $91.38. Oil futures last closed above $90 last Friday.

While investors believe the government’s $150 billion stimulus plan and the Fed’s rate cuts will stave off a serious economic slowdown, rate cuts also tend to weaken the dollar, giving investors another reason to buy oil futures. Crude futures offer a hedge against a falling dollar, and oil futures bought and sold in dollars are more attractive to foreign investors when the greenback is falling.

And the Fed’s cuts have weakened the dollar and also contributed to the higher oil prices.

In other words, the article is stating that the rate cuts caused both strong demand and a weak dollar, both driving up inflation.

The financial media is beginning to look past recession fears and to inflation.

Look for article about how the Fed is falling behind the inflation curve.

“When (investors in foreign) countries go to buy oil, they’re buying it on sale,” said James Cordier, president of Liberty Trading Corp., in Tampa, Fla.

Many analysts believe the weakening dollar helped draw speculative investors into oil markets this fall and winter, driving oil prices
above the $100 mark.

Other energy futures also rose Friday. February heating oil futures jumped 4.28 cents to settle at $2.5191 a gallon on the Nymex while February gasoline futures added 3.54 cents to settle at $2.3182 a gallon. Heating oil and gasoline prices were supported by news that Valero Energy Corp.’s 255,000 barrel a day refinery in Aruba was shut down due to a fire.

February natural gas futures rose 18.1 cents to settle at $7.983 per 1,000 cubic feet.

In London, March Brent crude rose $1.83 to settle at $90.90 a barrel Friday on the ICE Futures exchange.

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Jan 23 late update

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Monoline problem addressed, stocks suddenly oversold as that risk fades.

Most earning look strong. Guidance may be soft but that’s at least partially a function of the expectation of a recession as per the media reporting and will get ignored as those fears continue to fade.

If initial claims tomorrow are around 325,000 as expected, and continuing claims are reasonably stable, it will indicate the labor markets may not have deteriorated from Q4 as feared.

Existing home sales are still winter numbers, but could surprise on the upside as anecdotal reports indicate aggressive selling of excess inventories.

The Fed and the stock market share the same fears. As the market’s fears fade so will the Fed’s, and the markets and the Fed could start to take away a the cut now priced in for the meeting next week.

This leaves FF futures and ED futures maybe 100 bp over priced, as the improving outlook will price in the possibility that fewer future cuts will be appropriate.

And the fiscal package is growing. This is the first time I’ve ever seen the Fed encouraging adding to the deficit, and in an election year it’s hard to imagine Congress and the President not taking advantage of that opening and in the spirit of bipartisan cooperation expanding the package so all get their favorite tax cut and spending initiative. $250-300 billion wouldn’t surprise me. And they need to do it quick before it’s discovered there is no recession problem, but instead an inflation problem.

Also note WTI and Brent crude have converged quite a bit in the sell off, which probably means WTI was sold off by speculators, and a bounce back to the Saudi’s target price (whatever that is) can be expected.

Exports are also likely to be underestimated in next week’s GDP preview, so there’s a good chance it will be revised up when December trade numbers are announced in February.

And without a rise in unemployment and a meaningful drop in personal income housing can come back very quickly from a very low base. Affordability is up nicely, and the production of new homes is down by maybe a million vs last year.

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Re: Will the cure be worse than the disease?

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(an interoffice email)

> the only problem i have with Meltzer is that is the consensus view now,
> that inflation is a foregone conclusion-i think long term that may be
> right (long term paper currency devaluation) but you could easily
> correct commodity and energy prices if you have a reduction of
> speculator and investor demand (ie see 1970s chart of gold and crude
> oil-there years in which the price of those commodities corrected
> viciously in a long term up trend). Specs of today in a mark to market
> world i dont believe are immune from short term negative commodity
> marks…

Agreed.

Two things (as Reagan would say):

  1. Crude probably stays high as Saudis are selling 9 million bpd at current prices. no reason to cut price unless demand fall off and forces them to hit bids rather than getting offers lifted. And world inventories are relatively low so it would be hard to get a sell off from physical inventory liquidation. More likely for other commodities to underperform crude in a spec sell off. Might even be happening now. (And biofuels like crude and food costs.)
  1. Even if crude/food/import and export prices level off or even go down some, they are so far ahead of core CPI increases that core can continue to go up for several quarters to close the gap. And the Fed thinks that can dislodge expectations so can’t afford to let it happen.
  1. world employment/income seems to be holding up, so actual nominal demand for consumption of resources shouldn’t collapse without some major positive supplied side shock.

Meltzer is wrong as IMHO not much is a function of interest rates; so, he’s ‘blaming’ the wrong entity for ‘inflation’. But his story is the mainstream story; so, i expect a lot more of same.

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2008-01-21 Update

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Major themes intact:

  • weak economy
  • higher prices

Weakness:

US demand soft but supported by exports.

US export strength resulting from non resident ‘desires’ to reduce the rate of accumulation of $US net financial assets. This driving force is ideologically entrenched and not likely to reverse in the next several months.

In previous posts, I suggested the world is ‘leveraged’ to the US demand for $700 billion per year in net imports, as determined by the non resident desire to accumulate 700 billion in $US net financial assets.

US net imports were something over 2% of rest of world GDP, and the investment to support that demand as it grew was probably worth another 1% or more of world GDP.

The shift from an increasing to decreasing US trade deficit is a negative demand shock to rest of world economies.

This comes at a time when most nations have decreasing government budget deficits as a percent of their GDP, also reducing demand.

The shift away from the rest of world accumulation of $US financial assets should continue. Much of it came from foreign CB’s. And now, with Tsy Sec Paulson threatening to call any CB that buys $US a ‘currency manipulator’, it is unlikely the desire to accumulate $US financial assets will reverse sufficiently to stop the increase in US exports. I’m sure, for example, Japan would already have bought $US in substantial size if not for the US ‘weak dollar’ policy.

All else equal, increasing exports is a decrease in the standard of living (exports are a real cost, imports a benefit), so Americans will be continuing to work but consuming less, as higher prices slow incomes, and output goes to non residents.

I also expect a quick fiscal package that will add about 1% to US GDP for a few quarters, further supporting a ‘muddling through’ of US GDP.

Additional fiscal proposals will be coming forward and likely to be passed by Congress. It’s an election year and Congress doesn’t connect fiscal policy with inflation, and the Fed probably doesn’t either, as they consider it strictly a monetary phenomena as a point of rhetoric.

Higher Prices:

Higher prices world wide are coming from both increased competition for resources and imperfect competition in the production and distribution of crude oil. In particular, the Saudis, and maybe the Russians as well, are acting as swing producer. They simply set price and let output adjust to demand conditions.

So the question is how high they will set price. President Bush recently visited the Saudis asking for lower prices, and perhaps the recent drop in prices can be attributed to those meetings. But the current dip in prices may also be speculators reducing positions, which creates short term dips in price, which the Saudis slowly follow down with their posted prices to disguise the fact they are price setters, before resuming their price hikes.

At current prices, Saudi production has actually been slowly increasing, indicating demand is firm at current prices and the Saudis are free to continue raising them as long as desired.

The current US fiscal proposals are designed to help people pay the higher energy prices, further supporting demand for Saudi oil.

They may also be realizing that if they spend their increased income on US goods and services, US GDP is sustained and real terms of trade shift towards the oil producers.

Conclusion:

  • The real economy muddling through
  • Inflation pressures continuing

A word on the financial sector’s continuing interruptions:

With floating exchange rates and countercyclical tax structures we won’t see the old fixed exchange rate types of real sector collapses.

The Eurozone banking sector is the exception, and remains vulnerable to systemic failure, as they don’t have credible deposit insurance in place, and, in fact, the one institution that can readily ‘write the check’ (the ECB) is specifically prohibited by treaty from doing so.

Today, in most major economies, fiscal balances move to substantial, demand supporting deficits with an increase in unemployment of only a few percentage points. Note the US is already proactively adding 1% to the budget deficit with unemployment rising only 0.3% at the last initial observation in December. In fact, fiscal relaxation is being undertaken to relieve financial sector stress, and not stress in the real economy.

Food and energy have had near triple digit increases over the last year or so. Even if they level off, or fall modestly, the cost pressures will continue to move through the economy for several quarters, and can keep core inflation prices above Fed comfort zones for a considerable period of time.

Fiscal measures to support GDP will add to the perception of inflationary pressures.

The popular press is starting to discuss how inflation is hurting working people. For example, I just saw Glen Beck note that with inflation at 4.1% for 07 real wages fell for the first time in a long time, and he proclaimed inflation the bigger fundamental threat than the weakening economy.

I also discussed the mortgage market with a small but national mortgage banker. He’s down 50% year over year, but said the absolute declines leveled off in October, including California. He also pointed out one of my old trade ideas is back – when discounts on pools become excessive to current market rates, buy discounted pools of mortgages and then pay mortgage bankers enough of that discount to be able refinance the individual loans at below market rates.

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Why I expect US exports to continue to be very strong..

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The desire to accumulate $US financial assets has been diminished for at least the following reasons:

  1. Treasury policy – Paulson is actively pushing both a strong yuan and threatening any other CB that buys $US with the label of ‘currency manipulator.’ CB’s had been perhaps the largest source of $US financial assets accumulation and are now limited to compounding of interest.
  2. US foreign policy is probably driving CB’s in less than friendly nations to diversify their reserves away from $US financial assets.
  3. Fed policy has the appearance of a ‘beggar thy neighbor’/’inflate your way out of debt’ policy, as the Fed aggressively cuts rates in the face of inflation not seen in 25 years.

This all sets in motion a downward pricing of the $US as non residents sell them to each other at lower and lower prices in this effort to lower their rate of accumulation of $US financial assets. But these financial assets can only ‘go away’ when they get spent or invested in the US, when US prices are low enough to cause this to happen. The rapid rise in exports and accelerated non resident buying of US real estate and other assets is anecdotal evidence this is taking place as theory predicts.

This is a very large cyclical force that should continue to drive rapidly rising exports for perhaps a year or more. Weak foreign economies should have little effect on this process, as that weakness doesn’t reduce the desire of portfolio managers to shift out of $US financial assets.

This is also highly inflationary for the US. This buying by non residents both drives down the $US and drives up the prices of US exports, now rising at a 7% clip last I checked.

The desired shift is probably well over $1 trillion which means exports will increase by a good part of that to facilitate this transfer.

This can sustain US GDP in the face of falling domestic demand, which will stay relatively low until housing picks up. Employment will remain reasonably good, but standards of living fall as we produce as much, but export more and consume less. We get paid to work but can buy less due to high prices, with our remaining production exported to those wishing to reduce their accumulated $US financial assets.

We’ve been talking about this possibility about a long time, but seems our trade negotiators have finally got their wish.

Meanwhile, Saudis continue to act the swing producer. In fact, they told Bush today they have 2 million bpd capacity in reserve, and that markets are well supplied. At their price, of course.

Probably have been some year end allocations out of crude by pension funds as with the price hikes they would need to sell some to keep the same ‘weight’ in their portfolios. That should be ending soon.

And I agree with Karim, the Fed is not likely to act on inflation until core starts to rise or their measures of inflation expectations start to rise, despite the fact that mainstream theory clearly says if any of that happens it’s too late. Seems to me the senior FOMC members are putting their jobs on the line by taking that kind of systemic risk, which their own theory tells them is far higher than the risk of any lost output from a .

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ECB Mersch on inflation

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ECB’s Mersch Says Oil Must Not Boost Other Prices

by Simone Meier

(Bloomberg) European Central Bank council member Yves Mersch said a surge in oil prices must not be allowed to lead to permanently faster inflation, Luxembourg’s Wort newspaper reported, citing an interview.

Yes, that is the mainstream view – don’t turn a relative value story into an inflation story.

“Of course we can do something against” faster inflation, Mersch, who is also governor of Luxembourg’s central bank, said in the interview, according to Wort. “We have to prevent temporary price increases, as we see with oil, from permanently impacting on the overall level of prices.”

It already has started to do this via biofuels and increased costs of production. Food prices are up, and other prices are facing upward pressure.

Rising oil prices are “like a tax,” Mersch told the newspaper. “If someone is taxing us, we all become poorer. If we refuse to become poorer, we’re not creating any purchasing power but only inflation,” the newspaper quoted him as saying.

Yes by keeping it a relative value story by limiting demand, real terms of trade deteriorate making the nation ‘poorer’.

“We have to watch out that other sectors and services don’t become infected” by rising prices, Mersch said, according to Wort.

Demand has to be kept low enough to not let a relative value story become an inflation story.

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Crisis may make 1929 look a ‘walk in the park’

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Crisis may make 1929 look a ‘walk in the park’

Telegraph
by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

As central banks continue to splash their cash over the system, so far to little effect, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard argues that things risk spiralling out of their control

Twenty billion dollars here, $20bn there, and a lush half-trillion from the European Central Bank at give-away rates for Christmas.
Buckets of liquidity are being splashed over the North Atlantic banking system, so far with meagre or fleeting effects.

It’s about price, not quantity (net funds are not altered), and the CB actions have helped set ‘policy rates’ at desired levels.

That is all the CBs can do, apart from altering the absolute level of rates, which, by their own research, does little or nothing and with considerable lags.

Not to say changing rates isn’t disruptive as it shifts nominal income/wealth between borrowers and savers of all sorts.

As the credit paralysis stretches through its fifth month, a chorus of economists has begun to warn that the world’s central banks are fighting the wrong war, and perhaps risk a policy error of epochal proportions.

“Liquidity doesn’t do anything in this situation,” says Anna Schwartz, the doyenne of US monetarism and life-time student (with Milton Friedman) of the Great Depression.

The last major, international fixed exchange rate/gold standard implosion. Other since – ERM, Mexico, Russia, Argentina – have been ‘contained’ to the fixed fx regions.

“It cannot deal with the underlying fear that lots of firms are going bankrupt. The banks and the hedge funds have not fully acknowledged who is in trouble. That is the critical issue,” she adds.

The critical issue at the macro policy level is what it is all doing to the aggregate demand that sustains output, employment, and growth. So far so good on that front, but it remains vulnerable, especially given the state of knowledge of macro economics and fiscal/monetary policy around the globe.

Lenders are hoarding the cash, shunning peers as if all were sub-prime lepers. Spreads on three-month Euribor and Libor – the interbank rates used to price contracts and Club Med mortgages – are stuck at 80 basis points even after the latest blitz. The monetary screw has tightened by default.

The CB can readily peg Fed Funds vs. LIBOR at any spread they wish to target.

York professor Peter Spencer, chief economist for the ITEM Club, says the global authorities have just weeks to get this right, or trigger disaster.

Seems they pretty much did before year end. Spreads are narrower now and presumably at CB targets.

“The central banks are rapidly losing control. By not cutting interest rates nearly far enough or fast enough, they are
allowing the money markets to dictate policy. We are long past worrying about moral hazard,” he says.

They have allowed ‘markets’ to dictate as the entire FOMC and others have revealed a troubling lack of monetary operations and reserve accounting.

“They still have another couple of months before this starts imploding. Things are very unstable and can move incredibly fast. I don’t think the central banks are going to make a major policy error, but if they do, this could make 1929 look like a walk in the park,” he adds.

Hard to do with floating exchange rates, but not impossible if they try hard enough!

The Bank of England knows the risk. Markets director Paul Tucker says the crisis has moved beyond the collapse of mortgage securities, and is now eating into the bedrock of banking capital. “We must try to avoid the vicious circle in which tighter liquidity conditions, lower asset values, impaired capital resources, reduced credit supply, and slower aggregate demand feed back on each other,” he says.

Seems a lack of understanding of the ‘suppy side’ of money/credit is pervasive and gives rise to all kinds of ‘uncertainties’ (AKA – fears, as in being scared to an extreme).

New York’s Federal Reserve chief Tim Geithner echoed the words, warning of an “adverse self-reinforcing dynamic”, banker-speak for a downward spiral. The Fed has broken decades of practice by inviting all US depositary banks to its lending window, bringing dodgy mortgage securities as collateral.

Banks can only own what the government puts on their ‘legal list’, and banks can issue government insured deposits, which is government funding, in order to fund government approved assets.

Functionally, there is no difference between issuing government insured deposits to fund their legal assets and using the discount window to do the same. The only difference may be the price of the funds, and the fed controls that as a matter of policy.

Quietly, insiders are perusing an obscure paper by Fed staffers David Small and Jim Clouse. It explores what can be done under the Federal Reserve Act when all else fails.

Section 13 (3) allows the Fed to take emergency action when banks become “unwilling or very reluctant to provide credit”. A vote by five governors can – in “exigent circumstances” – authorise the bank to lend money to anybody, and take upon itself the credit risk. This clause has not been evoked since the Slump.

The government already does this. They already determine legal bank assets, capital requirements, and via various government agencies and association advance government guaranteed loans of all types.

This is business as usual – all presumably for public purpose.

Get over it!!!

Yet still the central banks shrink from seriously grasping the rate-cut nettle. Understandably so. They are caught between the Scylla of the debt crunch and the Charybdis of inflation. It is not yet certain which is the more powerful force.

Yes, as they cling to the belief that ‘inflation’ is a ‘strong’ function of interest rates, while it is an oil monopolist or two and a government induced and supported link from crude to food via biofuels that are driving up CPI and inflation in general.

America’s headline CPI screamed to 4.3 per cent in November. This may be a rogue figure, the tail effects of an oil, commodity, and food price spike. If so, the Fed missed its chance months ago to prepare the markets for such a case. It is now stymied.

CPI might also be headed higher if crude continues its advance.

This has eerie echoes of Japan in late-1990, when inflation rose to 4 per cent on a mini price-surge across Asia. As the Bank of Japan fretted about an inflation scare, the country’s financial system tipped into the abyss.

As I recall, it was a tax hike that hurt GDP.

Yes, the world economies are vulnerable to a drop in GDP growth, but the financial press seems to have the reasoning totally confused.

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Calories, Capital, Climate Spur Asian Anxiety

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Higher oil prices mean lower rates from the Fed, and higher inflation rates induced by shortages mean stronger currencies abroad.

Why do I have so much trouble getting aboard this paradigm, and instead keep looking for reversals? Feels a lot like watching the NASDAQ go from 3500 to 5000 a few years ago.

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Calories, Capital, Climate Spur Asian Anxiety

2007-12-26 17:51 (New York)
by Andy Mukherjee

(Bloomberg) — The new year may be a challenging one for Asian policy makers.

Year-end U.S. closing stocks for wheat are the lowest in six decades; soybeans in Chicago touched a 34-year peak this week. Palm oil in Malaysia climbed to a record yesterday.

The steeply rising cost of calories may be more than just cyclical, notes Rob Subbaraman, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. economist in Hong Kong. Growing use of food crops in biofuels and increasing demand for a protein-rich diet in developing countries may have pushed up prices more permanently.

The wholesale price of pork in China has surged 53 percent in the past year.

“Consumer inflationary expectations may soon rise, feeding into wage growth and core inflation, but we expect Asian central banks to be slow to react, initially due to slowing growth and later because of strong capital inflows,” Subbaraman says.

If the U.S. Federal Reserve continues easing interest rates to combat a housing-led economic slowdown, a surge in capital inflows into Asia may indeed become a stumbling block in managing the inflationary impact of higher commodity prices.

Food and energy account for more than two-fifths of the Chinese consumer-price index, compared with 17 percent for countries such as the U.K., U.S. and Canada, and 25 percent in the euro area, according to UBS AG economist Paul Donovan in London.

As Asian central banks raise interest rates — when the Fed is cutting them — they will invite even more foreign capital into the region. That will cause Asian currencies to appreciate, leading to a loss of competitiveness for the region’s exports.

Carbon Emissions

On the other hand, paring the domestic cost of money prematurely may worsen the inflation challenge.

That isn’t all.

Higher oil prices will also boost the attractiveness of coal as an energy source, delaying any meaningful reduction in carbon emissions in fast-growing Asian nations such as China and India.

As Daniel Gros, director of the Centre for European Policy Studies in Brussels, noted in recent research, the price of coal — relative to crude oil — has been halved since the end of 1999. And per unit of energy produced, coal is a much bigger pollutant than oil or gas.

This doesn’t augur well for the environment.

“Given that China is likely to install over the next decade more new power generation capacity than already exists in all of Europe, this implies that the current level of high oil prices provides incentive to make the Chinese economy even more intensive in carbon than it would otherwise be,” Gros said.

Beijing Olympics

Climate-related issues will be in the spotlight in Asia next year. China’s eagerness to use the Beijing Olympic Games to showcase solutions to its huge environmental challenges will be one of the “big things to watch for” in Asia in 2008, Spire Research and Consulting, a Singapore-based advisory firm, said last week.

Even if China succeeds in reducing air pollution during the Olympics, the improvements may not endure after the sporting event ends on Aug. 24, especially since the underlying economics continue to favor higher coal usage.

A drop in hydrocarbon prices might help check emissions and global warming, Gros noted last week on the Web site of VoxEu.org.

In fact, lower oil prices may also make food costs more stable by lessening the craze for biofuels.

That will leave capital flows as Asia’s No. 1 challenge in 2008. And it won’t be an easy one for policy makers to tackle.

Capital Inflows

Take India’s example.

The $900 billion economy has attracted $100 billion in capital in the 12 months through October, with a third of the money entering the country as overseas borrowings, according to Morgan Stanley economist Chetan Ahya in Singapore.

This has caused the rupee to appreciate more than 12 percent against the dollar this year, knocking off more than three percentage points from India’s inflation index, says Lombard Street Research economist Maya Bhandari in London.

Naturally, exporters are complaining.

So why doesn’t India cut domestic interest rates? It can’t do that without the risk of stoking inflation.

Money supply is growing at an annual pace of more than 21 percent in India, compared with the central bank’s target of between 17 percent and 17.5 percent. Inflation has held well below the central bank’s estimate of 5 percent for five straight months partly because of the government’s insistence on not passing the full cost of imported fuel to local consumers. It isn’t yet time for monetary easing in India.

China has it worse. Monetary conditions there remain dangerously loose. And China may be reluctant to do much about the undervalued yuan — the root cause of its record trade surpluses and the attendant liquidity glut — until the Olympics are out of the way.

Asian economies may, to a large extent, be insulated from the subprime mess. Still, 2008 won’t be all fun and games.

(Andy Mukherjee is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)

–Editors: James Greiff, Ron Rhodes.

To contact the writer of this column:
Andy Mukherjee in Singapore at +65-6212-1591 or
amukherjee@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this column:
James Greiff at +1-212-617-5801 or jgreiff@bloomberg.net

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