(email exchange)
Lots of good shorts here- if you have the staying power!
>
> On Wed, Jan 21, 2009 at 9:55 AM, Jason wrote:
>
> MCDX11 5yr…255/265 (unched)
> IG11 221-223
>
10 YR MUNI CDS MARKETS **UPDATE** 01/21/2009
| CA | 400/450 | A1/A+ |
| NYC | 285/335 | Aa3/AA |
| FL | 190/240 | Aa1/AAA |
| MI | 325/375 | Aa3/AA- |
| NV | 315/365 | Aa1/AA+ |
| NJ | 225/275 | Aa3/AA |
| NYS | 235/285 | Aa3/AA |
| TX | 140/170 | Aa1/AA |
| OH | 190/240 | Aa1/AA+ |
| VA/SC/NC/UT/GA | 110/160 | |
| IL | 190/240 | Aa3/AA |
| MA | 190/240 | Aa2/AA |
CA 400/450 A1/A+ ****
This spread implies 56% probability of default in 5yrs and 87% probability in 10yrs assuming 80% recovery…
Seriously… State GO & recovery would probably be >95%
Assuming the federal government actually would allow them to fail…
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