2008-04-09 US Economic Releases

2008-04-09 MBAVPRCH Index

MBAVPRCH Index (Apr 4)

Survey n/a
Actual 384.7
Prior 356.0
Revised n/a

If this is a recession, it’s not much of one, and housing is slowly bottoming and turning back up some.


2008-04-09 MBAVREFI Index

MBAVREFI Index (Apr 4)

Survey n/a
Actual 2724.7
Prior 2636.0
Revised n/a

The refi machine is far from dead.


2008-04-09 Wholesale Inventories

Wholesale Inventories

Survey 0.5%
Actual 1.1%
Prior 0.8%
Revised 1.0%

[comments]

2008-04-02 US Economic Releases

2008-04-02 MBAVPRCH Index

MBAVPRCH Index (Mar 28)

Survey n/a
Actual 356.0
Prior 403.7
Revised n/a

Down this week, maybe a holiday issue. Looks looks like Q1 was in a lower range than Q4, but not all that bad.

Also, mortgage bankers have less capacity than previously, and banks are said to be gaining market share.


2008-04-02 MBAVREFI Index

MBAVREFI Index (Mar 28)

Survey n/a
Actual 2636.0
Prior 4255.2
Revised n/a

Refi’s have been coming in spikes. Not sure why.


2008-04-02 Challenger Job Cuts YoY

Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual 9.4%
Prior -14.2%
Revised n/a

This hasn’t been a reliable indicator but nonetheless seems to indicate a recession isn’t in the cards.


2008-04-02 ADP Employment Change

ADP Employment Change (Mar)

Survey -45K
Actual 8K
Prior -23K
Revised -18K

ADP flattish, and last month revised up a bit.

Friday’s payroll number could be much the same: last month revised up some, and current month a bit higher than expected.

The overall trend is to less job creation, but the labor force participation rate has also been falling and keeping reported unemployment in check.

But it doesn’t matter anymore.

Employment is now going to be treated as a ‘rear view mirror’ issue and not ‘forward looking’

Same with losses to be reported by the financial sector.

Economics risks are now to the upside.

If housing doesn’t fall by another large chunk and further subtract from GDP, the Fed is left with an output gap not nearly large enough to forecast inflation coming back to target levels, without also including rate hikes in its internal forecasts (rate forecasts are not released). (The Fed’s long term inflation forecasts are necessarily at their target levels, as those forecasts include ‘appropriate monetary policy’ to hit those targets.)

Without a lot more weakness than current conditions indicate, markets will anticipate the Fed is unlikely to keep rates at current levels.

Meanwhile, current levels of demand for crude are more than sufficient for the Saudis to continue as swing producer/price setter.

And the foreign sector is still in the process of reducing their rate of accumulation of USD financial assets as evidenced by the falling trade gap, falling USD, and rising US exports.


2008-04-02 Factory Orders

Factory Orders (Feb)

Survey -0.8%
Actual -1.3%
Prior -2.5%
Revised -2.3%

2008-04-02 Factory Orders YoY

Factory Orders YoY (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual 6.0%
Prior 7.9%
Revised n/a

Pretty good up trend in progress here.

2008-03-26 US Economic Releases

2008-03-26 MBAVPRCH Index

MBAVPRCH Index (Mar 21)

Survey n/a
Actual 403.7
Prior 365.0
Revised n/a

More evidence of a turn in housing:

Mortgage applications spike after Fed action

(Reuters) The Mortgage Bankers Association’s mortgage applications index jumped 48.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted 965.9 in the week ended March 21, its highest level since early February.

An 82 percent surge in refinancing applications overshadowed a 10.6 percent rise in home purchase loan requests, lifting total applications from the previous week, when home loan demand sank to the lowest since end-December.

On a four-week moving average, which adjusts for volatility, total applications rose 11.3 percent, while the purchase index gained 3.1 percent and the refinancing index climbed 18.3 percent.

Crude oil creeping back up. One thing the Fed knows for sure is demand is strong enough to support food and energy price increases at dangerous levels, and they have also commented that they are being passed through to core measures.


2008-03-26 MBAVREFI Index

MBAVREFI Index (Mar 21)

Survey n/a
Actual 4255.1
Prior 2335.2
Revised n/a

Another good sign for ‘market functioning’.


2008-03-26 Durable Goods Orders

Durable Goods Orders (Feb)

Survey 0.7%
Actual -1.7%
Prior -5.3%
Revised -4.7%

2008-03-26 Durable Goods YoY

Durable Goods YoY (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.3%
Prior 4.2%
Revised n/a

Looking weak month over month, but ok year over year.

Tax advantages that begin in May could be delaying reported investments.


2008-03-26 Durables Ex Transportation

Durables Ex Transportation (Feb)

Survey -0.3%
Actual -2.6%
Prior -1.6%
Revised -1.0%

2008-03-26 New Home Sales

New Home Sales (Feb)

Survey 578K
Actual 590K
Prior 588K
Revised 601K

Looks like a possible bottom. Last month revised up and this month’s number a bit higher than last month’s original reported number.


2008-03-26 New Home Sales MoM

New Home Sales MoM (Feb)

Survey -1.7%
Actual -1.8%
Prior -2.8%
Revised -1.6%

Not strong but, as above, not a continuing collapse

2008-03-19 US Economic Releases

2008-03-19 MBAVPRCH Index

MBAVPRCH Index (Mar 14)

Survey n/a
Actual 365.0
Prior 368.8
Revised n/a

Leveling off at 2003 levels, which corresponds to housing starts well over 1.5 million.

Also, this is a seasonally adjusted number, so as it stays level at current levels it corresponds to the typical spring increases in sales.

Still way above recession levels of the past, and mtg bankers have lost market share to the banks as well.


2008-03-19 MBAVREFI Index

MBAVREFI Index (Mar 14)

Survey n/a
Actual 2335.0
Prior 2448.2
Revised n/a

Refi activity remains moderate.

2008-03-12 US Economic Releases

2008-03-12 MBAVPRCH Index

MBAVPRCH Index

Survey n/a
Actual 368.8
Prior 363.1
Revised n/a

May be coming back after a winter weather lull.


2008-03-12 MBAVPRCH Index

MBAVREFI Index

Survey n/a
Actual 2448.2
Prior 2569.0
Revised n/a

Not all that much refinancing activity.


2008-03-12 Bloomberg Global Confidence

Bloomberg Global Confidence (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual 13.08
Prior 14.34
Revised n/a

The whole world is watching CNBC.

2008-03-05 US Economic Releases

2008-03-05 MBA Mortgage Applications

MBA Mortgage Applications (Feb 29)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.0%
Prior -19.2%
Revised n/a

Refi’s bouncing back some.


2008-03-05 MBAVPRCH Index

MBAVPRCH Index (Feb 29)

Survey n/a
Actual 363.1
Prior 358.1
Revised n/a

This seems to be drifting lower with time.

Might be loss of market share to banks.


2008-03-05 MBAVREFI Index

MBAVREFI (Feb 29)

Survey n/a
Actual 2569.0
Prior 2458.9
Revised n/a

As above.


2008-03-05 Challenger Job Cuts YoY

Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual -14.2%
Prior 19.1%
Revised n/a

Doesn’t show weakness in the labor markets other numbers show.

Doesn’t get much attention.


2008-03-05 APD Employment Change

ADP Employment Change (Feb)

Survey 18K
Actual -23K
Prior 130K
Revised 119K

Drifting lower over time.  May indicate payrolls are going to be in the 25,000 range.  On Friday the January number could be revised up and a low number reported for February.  This happened with the February report – December revised up quite a bit and January reported down.


2008-03-05 Nonfarm Productivity

Nonfarm Productivity (4Q F)

Survey 1.8%
Actual 1.9%
Prior 1.8%
Revised n/a

Seems to go with GDP.


2008-03-05 Unit Labor Costs

Unit Labor Costs (4Q F)

Survey 2.1%
Actual 2.6%
Prior 2.1%
Revised n/a

These are now moving up to more nearly match import prices, which functionally are unit labor costs as well as we’ve outsourced labor intensive content.

The Fed watches this closely as when it moves up the inflation cat is out of the bag.


2008-03-05 Factory Orders

Factory Orders (Jan)

Survey -2.5%
Actual -2.5%
Prior 2.3%
Revised 2.0%

As expected,  seems to be in a range.


2008-03-05 ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite

ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite (Feb)

Survey 47.3
Actual 49.3
Prior 44.6
Revised n/a

Low, but a bounce from last month, as I expected then.  Weak but not recession levels, and prices still too firm for comfort.

2008-02-27 US Economic Releases

2008-02-27 MBAVPRCH

MBAVPRCH Index (Feb 22)

Survey n/a
Actual 358.2
Prior 357.6
Revised n/a

While still winter numbers, this is nonetheless looking very weak.

No way to tell if it’s more than loss of market share to banks, but other winter housing numbers are also weak.


2008-02-27 MBAVREFI

MBAVREFI Index (Feb 22)

Survey n/a
Actual 2458.9
Prior 3533.8
Revised n/a

Weak.


2008-02-27 Durable Goods Orders

Durable Goods Orders (Jan)

Survey -4/0%
Actual -5.3%
Prior 5.2%
Revised 4.4%

Weak.


2008-02-27 Durable Goods Orders

Durable Goods YoY (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.0%
Prior 4.2%
Revised n/a

Weak.


2008-02-27 Durables Ex Transporation

Durables Ex Transportation (Jan)

Survey -1.4%
Actual -1.6%
Prior 2.6%
Revised 2.0%

Weak.


2008-02-27 New Home Sales

New Home Sales (Jan)

Survey 600K
Actual 588K
Prior 604K
Revised 605K

Weak.


2008-02-27 New Home Sales MoM

New Home Sales MoM (Jan)

Survey -0.7%
Actual -2.8%
Prior -4.7%
Revised -4.0%

Weak.


 Gives less reason to think January payrolls will be reversed very much higher.

2008-02-20 US Economic Releases

2008-02-20 MBAVPRCH Index

MBAVPRCH Index (Feb 15)

Survey n/a
Actual 357.6
Prior 403.9
Revised n/a

2008-02-20 MBAVREFI Index

MBAVREFI Index (Feb 15)

Survey n/a
Actual 3533.8
Prior 4901.5
Revised n/a

These look very weak.

Banks are not included, so there’s a chance the banks could be taking market share from the mortgage bankers.


2008-02-20 Consumer Price Index MoM

Consumer Price Index MoM (Jan)

Survey 0.3%
Actual 0.4%
Prior 0.3%
Revised 0.4%

2008-02-20 CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM

CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (Jan)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

2008-02-20 Consumer Price Index YoY

Consumer Price Index YoY (Jan)

Survey 4.2%
Actual 4.3%
Prior 4.1%
Revised n/a

2008-02-20 CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY

CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY (Jan)

Survey 2.4%
Actual 2.5%
Prior 2.4%
Revised n/a

Today’s CPI report shows inflation is moving up sharply. If it was above Yellen the dove’s comfort zone last week it even further above it now. Same with Mishkin, who more than once said the FOMC had to be prepared to reverse course as needed.

Stocks are sensing they may be ‘on their own’ if the Fed is constrained by inflation.

Yes, the economy is weak, growth near 0 (see housing below), but demand is high enough to keep pushing food, crude, and import/export prices ever higher.

The Fed seeks an output gap/GDP growth consistent with inflation within their comfort zone.

Stronger growth will increase their inflation forecasts, while weaker growth is expected to bring inflation down.

Higher prices for food and crude are also presumed to bring out supply side responses, thereby bringing prices down.

But they also believe this has to happen before inflation expectations elevate, otherwise the higher prices get ‘monetized’ and a relative value story turns into an inflation story.

The data is now showing that is starting to happen, and for most FOMC time has probably run out. They may now feel they have used up all the past ‘credibility’ that has kept inflation expectations ‘well anchored’ trying to ‘forestall’ a financial collapse.


2008-02-20 Housing Starts

Housing Starts (Jan)

Survey 1010K
Actual 1012K
Prior 1006K
Revised 1004K

A glimmer of hope, but not much, but still winter numbers. Better picture will emerge by March.


2008-02-20 Building Permits

Building Permits (Jan)

Survey 1050K
Actual 1048K
Prior 1068K
Revised 1080K

No sign of a turn here.

From Karim:

Core up 0.311%; with headline spurred by food and energy (each up 0.7%). Y/Y up to 2.5% from 2.4%

OER up another 0.3% and medical up 0.5%

Some items unlikely to repeat next month are lodging away from home, which was up 1.1%.

Also, apparel (which was up 0.4%) has now risen 5 straight months. This series usually chops around and like lodging away from home, has seasonal adjustment issues. Tobacco up 1.1% after 0.8% prior month. Expect all of these to reverse over next 1-2 months.

Maybe, maybe not. With import prices and local costs rising, cost-push-inflation can keep things moving up until all catches up with food/energy numbers.

Also, many wage agreements, including government, and other contracts have CPI escalators, which sustain demand for the ever higher prices.

Housing starts tick up 0.8% from downwardly revised December number; single family starts down another 3% to lowest since 1/91

Building permits down another 3% (typically leads starts)

Bottom line is Fed is likely to believe that the pattern of growth and inflation of the past two easing cycles will repeat itself (chart attached); that is inflation typically peaks about 2-3 years after the peak in growth. Fed Member Stern (voter) referred to this yesterday where he said he expected core to come down over the next several years but not anytime soon, and that recent rate cuts were ‘wholly appropriate’.

Agreed, they may believe that, but they also believe that if inflation expectations elevate, the higher prices get ‘monetized’ and don’t revert.

That’s why they are so focused on the inflation expectation indicators, which they also know are difficult to read and not considered completely reliable.

2008-02-13 US Economic Releases

2008-02-13 MBAVPRCH Index

MBAVPRCH Index

Doesn’t look too bad.

Mortgage bankers have reduced staff and are probably working overtime on refi’s which remain very high.


2008-02-13 Retail Sales

Retail Sales

Details of today’s report aside, the year over year chart looks like retail sales have been working their way modestly higher during the last year.


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