Tag Archives: MBA Mortgage Applications

2008-11-26 USER

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Karim writes:

Lots of numbers today- none of them real good.

MBA Mortgage Applications (Nov 21)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.5%
Prior -6.2%
Revised -6.2%

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Nov 21)

Survey n/a
Actual 261.60
Prior 248.50
Revised n/a

 
Up a bit from very low levels.

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Nov 21)

Survey n/a
Actual 1254.00
Prior 1281.20
Revised n/a

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Durable Goods Orders (Oct)

Survey -3.0%
Actual -6.2%
Prior 0.8%
Revised -0.2%

 
Big fall.

Karim writes:

  • -6.2% m/m
  • -4% m/m ex-aircraft and defense (after -3.2% and -2.3% prior two months)

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Durable Goods Orders YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual -11.7%
Prior -2.5%
Revised n/a

 
Big fall in a longer term down trend.

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Durables Ex Transportation MoM (Oct)

Survey -1.6%
Actual -4.4%
Prior -1.1%
Revised -2.3%

 
Not good either.

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Durables Ex Defense MoM (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual -4.6%
Prior -1.8%
Revised n/a

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Durable Goods ALLX (Oct)

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Personal Income MoM (Oct)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.2%
Revised 0.1%

 
Income has held up better than expected.

And the consumer has deleveraged substantially.

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Personal Income YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.3%
Prior 3.2%
Revised n/a

 
Looking lower.

Will get a nice kick up with the coming fiscal adjustment.

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Personal Income ALLX (Oct)

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Personal Consumption MoM (Oct)

Survey -1.0%
Actual -1.0%
Prior -0.3%
Revised n/a

 
Consumption falling even as income continues to increase.

The consumer is recharging his batteries.

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Personal Consumption YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.3%
Prior 3.5%
Revised n/a

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PCE Deflator YoY (Oct)

Survey 3.3%
Actual 3.2%
Prior 4.2%
Revised 4.1%

 
Down some and more weak numbers to come, but the longer term trend still looks up.

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PCE Core MoM (Oct)

Survey 0.0%
Actual 0.0%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

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PCE Core YoY (Oct)

Survey 2.2%
Actual 2.1%
Prior 2.4%
Revised 2.3%

 
Higher than expected but down some, and more weak numbers on the way, but still at the high end of the Fed’s comfort zone.

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Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 22)

Survey 535K
Actual 529K
Prior 542K
Revised 543K

 
Remains very high.

Karim writes:

  • Initial claims only decline 14k to 529k after 80k rise in prior 4 weeks
  • Similar bounce with continuing, drop of 54k to 3962k (had risen 295k in prior 3 weeks)

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Continuing Claims (Nov 15)

Survey 4080K
Actual 3962K
Prior 4012K
Revised 4016K

 
Off the highs but remain very high.

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Nov 22)

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Univ. of Michigan Confidence (Nov F)

Survey 57.5
Actual 55.3
Prior 57.9
Revised n/a

 
Back through the lows.

Karim writes:

  • New low for headline confidence, from 57.9 to 55.3
  • 5yr fwd inflation expectations unchanged at 2.9

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New Home Sales (Oct)

Survey 441K
Actual 433K
Prior 464K
Revised 457K

 
Still sliding.

Karim writes:

  • -5% m/m
  • Mths supply rise from 10.9 to 11.1

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New Home Sales Total for Sale (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual 381.00
Prior 414.00
Revised n/a

 
Maybe this is why sales are falling- no new homes left for sale!

Falling sharply.

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New Home Sales MoM (Oct)

Survey -5.0%
Actual -5.3%
Prior 2.7%
Revised 0.7%

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New Home Sales YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual -40.1%
Prior -34.1%
Revised n/a

 
Might be leveling off at very low levels.

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New Home Sales Median Price (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual 218.00
Prior 221.70
Revised n/a

 
Prices falling but not collapsing.

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New Home Sales TABLE 1 (Oct)

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New Home Sales TABLE 2 (Oct)


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2008-11-13 USER

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Nov 7)

Survey n/a
Actual 11.9%
Prior -20.3%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Nov 7)

Survey n/a
Actual 260.90
Prior 303.10
Revised n/a

 
Up some, but still very low.

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Nov 7)

Survey n/a
Actual 1075.40
Prior 1489.40
Revised n/a

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MBA TABLE 1 (Nov 7)

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MBA TABLE 2 (Nov 7)

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MBA TABLE 3 (Nov 7)

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MBA TABLE 4 (Nov 7)

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Trade Balance (Sep)

Survey -$57.0B
Actual -$56.5B
Prior -$59.1B
Revised n/a

 
Slowly falling as crude prices came down.

Karim writes:

  • Trade deficit improves from -59.1bn to -56.5 bn,
  • BUT, real trade balance actually worsened by about 3bn due to underlying price moves (so negative impact on real GDP)
  • Also, exports down 6% m/m and imports down 5.6% m/m

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Exports MoM (Sep 8)

Survey n/a
Actual -6.0%
Prior -1.7%
Revised n/a

 
Exports and imports (below) down as world economy slows.

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Imports MoM (Sep 8)

Survey n/a
Actual -5.6%
Prior -2.2%
Revised n/a

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Exports YoY (Sep 8)

Survey n/a
Actual 8.8%
Prior 16.3%
Revised n/a

 
Exports and imports (below) still up year over year but probably not for long.

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Imports YoY (Sep 8)

Survey n/a
Actual 6.9%
Prior 13.6%
Revised n/a

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Trade Balance ALLX (Sep)

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Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 8)

Survey 480K
Actual 516K
Prior 481K
Revised 484K

 
In to recession territory as expected.

Karim writes:

These are truly awful numbers

  • Initial claims rise from 484k (revised up from 480k) to new cycle high of 516k
  • Continuing claims rise from 3832k (revised down from 3843k) to new cycle high of 3897k
  • These reflect step-up in layoffs and continued lack of hiring

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Continuing Claims (Nov 1)

Survey 3825K
Actual 3897K
Prior 3843K
Revised 3832K

 
Moving into recession levels as expected.

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Nov 8)


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2008-11-05 USER

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Oct 31)

Survey n/a
Actual -20.3%
Prior 16.8%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Oct 31)

Survey n/a
Actual 260.90
Prior 303.10
Revised n/a

 
Down through the lows- looking like housing is taking a second leg down.

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Oct 31)

Survey n/a
Actual 1075.40
Prior 1489.40
Revised n/a

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MBA TABLE 1 (Oct 31)

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MBA TABLE 2 (Oct 31)

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MBA TABLE 3 (Oct 31)

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MBA TABLE 4 (Oct 31)

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Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual 78.9%
Prior 32.6%
Revised n/a

 
Trending higher along with other employment indicators.

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 1 (Oct)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 2 (Oct)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 3 (Oct)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 4 (Oct)

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ISM Non Manufacturing Composite (Oct)

Survey 47.0
Actual 44.4
Prior 50.2
Revised n/a


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2008-10-29 USER

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Oct 24)

Survey n/a
Actual 16.8%
Prior -16.6%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Oct 24)

Survey n/a
Actual 303.10
Prior 279.30
Revised n/a

 
A small bounce to what are still very low levels.

But no sign of a collapse

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Oct 24)

Survey n/a
Actual 1489.40
Prior 1158.80
Revised n/a

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MBA TABLE 1 (Oct 24)

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MBA TABLE 2 (Oct 24)

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MBA TABLE 3 (Oct 24)

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MBA TABLE 4 (Oct 24)

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Durable Goods Orders MoM (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.8%
Prior -5.5%
Revised n/a

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Durable Goods Orders YoY (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual -2.4%
Prior -8.9%
Revised n/a

 
A volatile series. Up some but the overall trend is still looking lower.

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Durables Ex Transportation MoM (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.1%
Prior -4.1%
Revised n/a

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Durables Ex Defense MoM (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.6%
Prior -6.0%
Revised n/a

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Durable Goods ALLX (Sep)


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2008-10-22 USER

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Oct 17)

Survey n/a
Actual -16.6%
Prior 5.1%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Oct 17)

Survey n/a
Actual 279.30
Prior 313.50
Revised n/a

 
Looks like a cycle low, as scared consumers dig in.

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Oct 17)

Survey n/a
Actual 1158.80
Prior 1514.20
Revised n/a

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MBA TABLE 1 (Oct 17)

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MBA TABLE 2 (Oct 17)

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MBA TABLE 3 (Oct 17)

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MBA TABLE 4 (Oct 17)


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2008-10-15 USER

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Oct 10)

Survey n/a
Actual 5.1%
Prior 2.2%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Oct 10)

Survey n/a
Actual 313.50
Prior 314.50
Revised n/a

 
Down a tad, but the lower band of the range holding.

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Oct 10)

Survey n/a
Actual 1514.20
Prior 1345.80
Revised n/a

 
Refi machine seems to be functioning.

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MBA TABLE 1 (Oct 10)

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MBA TABLE 2 (Oct 10)

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MBA TABLE 3 (Oct 10)

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MBA TABLE 4 (Oct 10)

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Oct)

Survey -10.0
Actual -24.6
Prior -7.4
Revised n/a

 
Much lower than expected as the world economy slows.

Karim says:

  • Drops from -7.4 to record low of -24.6.

  • Orders drop 25 points, shipments drop 9 points, workweek drops 4 points.

  • Employment modest improvement from -4.6 to -3.7

  • Bulk of labor force adjustment seems to be in hours.

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey ALLX 1 (Oct)

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey ALLX 2 (Oct)

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Producer Price Index MoM (Sep)

Survey -0.4%
Actual -0.4%
Prior -0.9%
Revised n/a

 
As expected.

Karim says:

  • Headline -0.4% and core +0.4%

  • Intermediate stage -1.2% and core -0.3%

  • Crude stage -7.9% and core -9.4%

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PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (Sep)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.4%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

 
Higher than expected.

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Producer Price Index YoY (Sep)

Survey 8.6%
Actual 8.7%
Prior 9.6%
Revised n/a

 
Still up big year over year.

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PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (Sep)

Survey 3.8%
Actual 4.0%
Prior 3.6%
Revised n/a

 
This is breaking out as well.

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Advance Retail Sales MoM (Sep)

Survey -0.7%
Actual -1.2%
Prior -0.3%
Revised -0.4%

 
Lowe than expected partly due to lower gasoline prices.

Karim says:

  • -1.2% m/m and -0.6% m/m ex-autos; modest downward revisions to back months.

  • -1.3% ex-gas.

  • All you need to know is only 2 components to rise m/m were health care and gasoline!

  • Furniture and clothing were each down 2.3%; the drop in furniture the most since Feb 2003.

  • And this before the 15% month to date decline in equities in October.

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Advance Retail Sales YoY (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.0%
Prior 1.5%
Revised n/a

 
Looking like recession levels.

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Retail Sales Less Autos MoM (Sep)

Survey -0.2%
Actual -0.6%
Prior -0.7%
Revised -0.9%

 
Also, lower than expected.

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Advance Retail Sales TABLE 1 (Sep)

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Advance Retail Sales TABLE 2 (Sep)

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Advance Retail Sales TABLE 3 (Sep)

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Business Inventories MoM (Aug)

Survey 0.5%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 1.1%
Revised n/a

 
A little lower than expected.

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Business Inventories YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 6.4%
Prior 6.5%
Revised n/a

 
Working their way higher but not out of control.


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2008-10-08 USER

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Oct 3)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.2%
Prior -23.0%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Oct. 3)

Survey n/a
Actual 314.50
Prior 304.80
Revised n/a

 
Didn’t go down.

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Oct. 3)

Survey n/a
Actual 1345.80
Prior 1333.90
Revised n/a

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MBA TABLE 1 (Oct 3)

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MBA TABLE 2 (Oct 3)

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MBA TABLE 3 (Oct 3)

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MBA TABLE 4 (Oct 3)

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Pending Home Sales (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 93.4
Prior 87.0
Revised n/a

 
And moving up?

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Pending Home Sales MoM (Aug)

Survey -1.3%
Actual 7.4%
Prior -3.2%
Revised -2.7%

 
Full blown housing boom underway! (OK, not yet)

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Pending Home Sales YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 5.0%
Prior -5.9%
Revised n/a

 
Went positive!

September will be the test with the intensified credit crunch, but if this stuff holds, the economy may be in better shape than assumed.


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2008-10-01 USER

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Sep 26)

Survey n/a
Actual -23.0%
Prior -10.6%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Sep 26)

Survey n/a
Actual 304.80
Prior 342.20
Revised n/a

 
Back towards 300, the bottom of the range. Falling like most other indicators. A weak September due to the fears of the financial crisis looks to have pushed q3 into negative numbers.

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Sep 26)

Survey n/a
Actual 1333.90
Prior 2043.40
Revised n/a

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MBA TABLE 1 (Sep 26)

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MBA TABLE 2 (Sep 26)

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MBA TABLE 3 (Sep 26)

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MBA TABLE 4 (Sep 26)

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Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual 32.6%
Prior 11.7%
Revised n/a

 
Not normally considered reliable, but this time in sync with other indicators of weakness.

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 1 (Sep)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 2 (Sep)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 3 (Sep)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 4 (Sep)

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ADP Employment Change (Sep)

Survey -50K
Actual -8K
Prior -33K
Revised -37K

 
The long gradual decline continues. This number is higher by about 50,000 than the same numbers will be as measured Friday due to the Boeing strike and the hurricane. ADP counts the strikers as still employed while the government doesn’t for Friday’s number.

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ADP ALLX (Sep)

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ISM Manufacturing (Sep)

Survey 49.5
Actual 43.5
Prior 49.9
Revised n/a

 
Serious nose dive here. Talk of buyers waiting for price reductions due to commodity price drops.

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ISM Prices Paid (Sep)

Survey 73.0
Actual 53.5
Prior 77.0
Revised n/a

 
Down, lower than expected, but more than half still paying higher prices. No deflation yet.

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ISM TABLE 1 (Sep)

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ISM TABLE 2 (Sep)

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Construction Spending MoM (Aug)

Survey -0.5%
Actual 0.0%
Prior -0.6%
Revised -1.4%

 
Flat, better than expected, but prior month revised down by .8%.

Residential rose .3% for the first increase in a long time.

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Construction Spending YoY (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual -5.9%
Prior -5.9%
Revised n/a

 
The rate of decline has stabilized, and there will soon be easier comps.

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Construction Spending Residential (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual 351662.0
Prior 350563.0
Revised n/a

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Construction Spending TABLE 1 (Sep)

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Construction Spending TABLE 2 (Sep)


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2008-09-24 USER

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Sep 19)

Survey n/a
Actual -10.6%
Prior 33.4%
Revised n/a

 
The MBA index of loan requests for home purchases fell 10 percent to 342.2.

Not good, but down from a larger spike last week, and still well above the lows.

Housing still looks to have bottomed albeit from very low levels.

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MBA Mortgage Purchasing (Sep 19)

Survey n/a
Actual 342.2
Prior 380.4
Revised n/a

 
A move down after a larger spike up, still off the bottom.

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MBA Mortgage Refinancing (Sep 19)

Survey n/a
Actual 2043.4
Prior 2300.0
Revised n/a

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MBA Mortgage Applications TABLE (Sep 19)

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MBA Mortgage Applications TABLE 2 (Sep 19)

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MBA Mortgage Applications TABLE 3 (Sep 19)

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MBA Mortgage Applications TABLE 4 (Sep 19)

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Existing Home Sales (Aug)

Survey 4.94M
Actual 4.91M
Prior 5.00M
Revised 5.02M

 
A bit worse than expected, prior revised up a bit. Still looks like it’s past the bottom.

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Existing Home Sales MoM (Aug)

Survey -1.2%
Actual -2.2%
Prior 3.1%
Revised 3.5%

 
Also worse than expected, and last month revised up.

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Existing Home Sales YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual -10.7%
Prior -12.8%
Revised n/a

 
Declines still dimishing.

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Existing Home Sales Inventory (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.255M
Prior 4.575M
Revised n/a

 
Good size drop as foreclosures get liquidated.
Along with plunging new home inventories and a lot of existing homes not livable, it looks to me like supply is starting to get thin.

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Existing Home Sales ALLX 1 (Aug)

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Existing Home Sales ALLX 2 (Aug)


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