Kohn Archive

Re: Letter from Kohn to you, 1994

[Skip to the end] (an email exchange PLUS pdf of Kohn letter) consider it public information, as you can see, he’s one of the few who understand monetary operations thanks! >    >   On Mon, Aug 25, 2008 at 7:58 PM, Steve wrote: >    >   Hi Warren, >    >   Hope all is well with you. >    ...Read More

Re: Kohn to ROW- You hike, not us (today’s speech)

[Skip to the end] (an interoffice email) On Thu, Jun 26, 2008 at 7:48 AM, Karim wrote: >    >    >    Global Economic Integration and Decoupling Vice Chairman Donald L. Kohn At the International Research Forum on Monetary Policy, Frankfurt, Germany June 26, 2008 For the moment, higher headline rates of inflation have ...Read More

Another look at Kohn’s June 11th speech

[Skip to the end] This still reads hawkish to me: The results of such exercises imply that, over recent history, a sharp jump in oil prices appears to have had only modest effects on the future rate of inflation. This result likely reflects two factors. First, commodities like oil represent only a ...Read More

June 9 Bernanke speech

[Skip to the end] Outstanding Issues in the Analysis of Inflation Nonetheless, much remains to be learned about both inflation forecasting and inflation control. In the spirit of this conference, my remarks this evening will highlight some key areas where additional research could help to provide a still-firmer foundation for monetary policymaking. ...Read More

5 year tips 5 years forward and recent Fed speeches

[Skip to the end] 5yr Tips 5yr Forward The Fed watches this carefully in regard to inflation expectations, along with surveys and professional forecasts which have gone up considerably. The 5 year tips 5 years forward dipped a couple of months ago on the generally commodity sell off, then fell again for ...Read More

Vice Chair Kohn comment and today’s opening

Recent comment by Fed Vice Chair Donald Kohn: If longer-term inflation expectations were to become unmoored–whether because of a protracted period of elevated headline inflation or because the public misinterpreted the recent substantial policy easing as suggesting that monetary policy makers had a greater tolerance for inflation than previously thought–then I believe ...Read More

Excerpt from Kohn’s speech

My expectations for moderating inflation and limited spillover effects from commodity price increases depend critically on the continued stability of inflation expectations. The FOMC has never wavered on this all important aspect of monetary policy – they firmly believe inflation expectations are what causes a relative value story to turn into an ...Read More

Changing Tides

I’ve been thinking that when the Fed turns its attention to inflation it will find itself way behind that curve, which it is by any mainstream standard, and that the curve then gets negative from a year or two out as markets anticipate rate hikes followed by falling inflation and rate cuts. ...Read More

Re: update

Dear Philip, Seems there’s a break between Mishkin and Kohn that previously wasn’t there. Markets are thinking Kohn supports a 50 cut and that he and Bernanke are alligned. Today Bernanke may show whether he leans towards Mishkin, the co academic, or Kohn, more the practitioner. Meanwhile, another ‘inflation day’ with oil ...Read More

Kohn speech

After the speech, crude up $1.61 and back over $100. Yields down on fixed income as markets anticipate Fed won’t respond to inflation anytime soon: February 26, 2008 The U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy (SNIP) Several major developments are shaping current economic performance, the outlook, and the conduct of monetary policy. The ...Read More