Karim Archive

Durable Goods Order/Claims

Karim writes: Durable Goods Order/Claims Durables goods orders +1.9% headline; -1.5% ex-aircraft and defense (this is the measure used for the private sector capex component of GDP) Defense up 23.2% m/m; here are the prior 3mths for defense orders in 2009 (-11%;+33%;-40%) Shipments ex-defense -0.3% Inventories -0.8% (unexpected as most felt inventory ...Read More


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Central banks trying to limit backup

[Skip to the end] Karim writes: ECB-Board Member Bini Smaghi was 4th board member since last week’s press conference to say that one 25bp hike was enough to return inflation back to the 2% target in 2yrs time (Trichet, Stark, Orphanides before him). Whether true or not, market reaction since last Thursday ...Read More

ICSC Survey

[Skip to the end] Karim writes: The ICSC weekly chain store sales index was unchanged for the week ending May 24 compared with the prior week and rose by 1.5% from the same week of the prior year–steady with the prior week. The ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Survey for the period ...Read More

Data Review

thanks, a few quips below: Karim writes: Conference Board survey falls from 62.8 to 57.2 (lowest since 1992) Both present situation and expectations decline Labor conditions, plans to buy home and plans to buy auto all fall to new cycle lows Tough living in an export economy. 1yr inflation expectations jump from ...Read More

Re: Bernanke/data

(an interoffice email) Yes, and he reaffirmed that he’s using the futures prices to predict where prices are going.  He pointed to crude being at $95 in the back months and stated that translates to a forecast for prices to come down from current levels. Also indicated the lower dollar is useful ...Read More