The Euro Zone Race to the Bottom

While the symptoms get continuous attention as they get threatening enough, the underlying cause-the austerity- does not.

The euro zone, like most of the world, is failing to meet its further economic objectives because of a lack of aggregate demand.

And in the euro zone, the fundamental problem is that the member nations, as credit sensitive ‘currency users’ are necessarily pro cyclical in a downturn, much like the US states, and therefore incapable of independently meeting their further economic objectives.

So even as the euro zone struggles to address it’s solvency crisis that threatens the union itself as well as at least part of what remains of the global financial architecture, the underlying shortage of euro net financial assets continues to undermine output and employment, with GDP growth now forecast to fall to 0 with a chance of going negative in the current quarter.

What this means is that without adopting an alternative to the current policy of applying enhanced austerity as the means of addressing the solvency issue, it all remains in a very ugly downward spiral with social collapse far less than impossible.

So yes, the solvency issue can continue to be managed by the ECB, the issuer of the euro, continuing to buy national government debt as needed. But that doesn’t add net euro financial assets to the economy. It merely shifts financial assets held by the economy from the debt of the national governments to deposits at the ECB. So it does nothing with regards to output, employment, inflation, etc. as recent history has shown.

In fact, nothing the world’s central banks do adds net financial assets to their economies. And much of what they do actually removes net financial assets from their economies, making things worse. Note that last year the Fed turned over some $79 billion in profits to the Treasury. Those profits came from the economy, having been removed from the economy by the Fed’s policy of quantitative easing, which the old text books rightly used to call a tax.

And meanwhile, the imposed austerity that accompanies the bond purchases does directly alter output and employment- for the worse.

Additionally, for all practical purposes, there is universal global support for austerity as the means supporting global output and employment.

So even if the euro zone gets the solvency issue right, with the ECB writing the check to remove all funding constraints, the ongoing austerity will continue to depress the real economies.

Unicredito


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(email exchange)

Anyone hearing about issues at Unibank in Italy?

>   
>   On Thu, Oct 2, 2008 at 11:17 AM, Kevin wrote:
>   
>   If you mean Unicredito (UCG IM), yesterday there was talk they were to call an
>   EGM, with a rumor that the CEO Profumo was to resign and talk the bank was
>   suffering from liquidity issues. They subsequently announced some real estate
>   sales improving their tier 1 capital ratio. At the same time Italy suspended
>   short sales. Today I see they are looking to raise euro 2.3bn, through the
>   sales senior bonds, aimed at retail investors.
>   
>   Having been regarded as one of Europes strongest banks, market has been
>   concerned that Profumo has persistently claimed they have no balance sheet
>   problems, despite worsening financial environment.
>   
>   Senior cds is trading at 140bp (5yr), it was 80/90 on sept 25th.
>   
>   Kevin

Thanks, heard they are very big and having issues.

US market action seems to be spreading to the eurozone where it can do a lot more damage than it’s doing here.


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2008-06-19 EU News Highlights


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Highlights

Italian Unemployment Rate Rises for First Time Since 2003

Euro Central bankers think that’s a good thing for their fight against inflation. Unemployment was getting far too low for comfort.

France’s Woerth Maintains Economic Growth Forecast at 1.7%-2%

More than enough to warrant rate hikes.

French government wants more work hours

Trying to add supply to labor markets to keep wages ‘well contained.’

Zapatero Says Spain Suffering an ‘Abrupt Slowdown’

Spain had been growing too fast for comfort for the inflation hawks


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Bloomberg: Budget deficit to rise in Italy

Countercyclical budget deficit growth could bring on a national credit crisis in the Eurozone that makes the current US situation look like child’s play.

This is their vulnerability that came with the Maastricht Treaty and has yet to be tested.

Italy Halves Growth Forecast, Sees Deficit Rising

by Flavia Krause-Jackson

(Bloomberg) The Italian government cut its 2008 economic growth forecast by more than half, as slumping confidence and rising prices threaten to brake expansion to the slowest among the 15 nations that share the euro.

The $2.2 trillion economy, Europe’s fourth-biggest, will grow 0.6 percent this year, the Rome-based Finance Ministry said today in a statement. That’s down from a forecast of 1.5 percent in December and would be the weakest rate of growth since 2005.

Italy may be the first and only country in the euro region to enter a recession this year and may have contracted in the fourth quarter, according to Morgan Stanley economist Vladimir Pillonca. Growth is slowing just as rising food and energy prices are fueling inflation and sapping consumer and business confidence.

“If you add to the mix an international situation that is now weaker than expected, this creates a real mess in a country where productivity was already declining,” said Luigi Speranza, an economist at NP Paribas SA in London.

Italy’s budget deficit will rise to 2.4 percent of gross domestic product, more than the 2.2 percent formerly predicted though still under the European Union ceiling of 3 percent. The shortfall narrowed last year to 1.9 percent of gross domestic product, the least since 2000, the Rome-based national statistics office said Feb. 29. That’s about half the 2006 deficit of 3.4 percent.