2008-07-01 US Economic Releases

Posted on July 1, 2008 @ 5:42 pm (Tuesday) by WARREN MOSLER

ICSC-UBS Store Sales Weekly Change (Released 7:45 EST)
Redbook Weekly YoY (Released 8:55 EST)
ICSC-UBS and Redbook TABLE (Released 8:55 EST)
ISM Manufacturing (Released 10:00 EST)
ISM Prices Paid (Released 10:00 EST)
ISM TABLE (Released 10:00 EST)
Construction Spending MoM (Released 10:00 EST)
Construction Spending YoY (Released 10:00 EST)
ABC Consumer Confidence (Released 17:00 EST)

ICSC-UBS Store Sales Weekly Change (Jul 1)

Survey	n/a
Actual	0.1
Prior	-0.6
Revised	n/a

Muddling through as govt spending and fiscal rebates offer support.

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Redbook Weekly YoY (Jul 1)

Survey	n/a
Actual	2.9
Prior	2.8
Revised	n/a

A bit better than expected and seem to be moving higher.

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ICSC-UBS and Redbook TABLE (Jul 1)

Survey	n/a
Actual	n/a
Prior	n/a
Revised	n/a

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ISM Manufacturing (Jun)

Survey	48.5
Actual	50.2
Prior	49.6
Revised	n/a

Better than expected, headline looks better than the detail, but holding up well above recession levels.

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ISM Prices Paid (Jun)

Survey	87.0
Actual	91.5
Prior	87.0
Revised	n/a

Breaking out. Question is whether there’s any level of inflation that will trigger a fed rate hike if GDP and financial conditions (whatever that means) stay at current levels.

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ISM TABLE (Jun)

Karim writes:

Not much change in headline or production/new order components.

Most material changes in prices paid (up 4.5; to new cycle high) and employment (down 1.8; to new cycle low).

Kohn’s speech: tolerate higher unemployment and higher inflation.

Based on continuing claims, conference board, and now ism, downside risk to -60k consensus for nfp on Thursday.

Weak, but not recession levels yet.

Government plus exports so far have made up for weak non-government domestic demand.

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Construction Spending MoM (May)

Survey	-0.6%
Actual	-0.4%
Prior	-0.4%
Revised	-0.1%

A bit better than expected. Down but not terrible.

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Construction Spending YoY (May)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-6.0%
Prior	-5.1%
Revised	n/a

Still near the lows, but a possible bottoming action.

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ABC Consumer Confidence (Jun 29)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-43
Prior	-43
Revised	n/a

Still looking pretty grim, probably mostly due to higher prices.

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2008-06-02 US Economic Releases

Posted on June 2, 2008 @ 11:29 am (Monday) by WARREN MOSLER

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RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Released 9:00 EST)
RPX Composite 28dy Index (Released 9:00 EST)
Construction Spending MoM (Released 10:00 EST)
Construction Spending MoM TABLE (Released 10:00 EST)
ISM Manufacturing (Released 10:00 EST)
ISM Prices Paid (Released 10:00 EST)
ISM TABLE (Released 10:00 EST)

RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Mar)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-13.97%
Prior	-11.00%
Revised	n/a

[comments]

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RPX Composite 28dy Index (Mar)

Survey	n/a
Actual	235.40
Prior	239.31
Revised	n/a

[comments]

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Construction Spending MoM (Apr)

Survey	-0.6%
Actual	-0.4%
Prior	-1.1%
Revised	-0.6%

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Construction Spending MoM TABLE

Also better than expected, and showing signs of life as the fiscal package kicks in.

All eyes are on residential which appears to be slowing its decline and should be doing less damage to GDP.

Just heard Lehman raised Q2 GDP estimate to up 1% from down 0.4%.

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ISM Manufacturing (May)

Survey	48.5
Actual	49.6
Prior	48.6
Revised	n/a

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ISM Prices Paid (May)

Survey	85.0
Actual	87.0
Prior	84.5
Revised	n/a

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ISM Manufacturing TABLE

Better than expected and looking like a bottom to me, with the fiscal package just now kicking in.

Recession fears a fading memory?

Prices paid way and higher than expected as FOMC turns its attention towards inflation.

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2008-05-01 US Economic Releases

Posted on May 1, 2008 @ 10:51 am (Thursday) by WARREN MOSLER

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Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Released 7:30 EST)
Personal Income (Released 8:30 EST)
Personal Spending (Released 8:30 EST)
PCE Deflator YoY (Released 8:30 EST)
PCE Core MoM (Released 8:30 EST)
PCE Core YoY (Released 8:30 EST)
Initial Jobless Claims (Released 8:30 EST)
Continuing Claims (Released 8:30 EST)
ISM Manufacturing (Released 10:00 EST)
ISM Prices Paid (Released 10:00 EST)
Construction Spending MoM (Released 10:00 EST)
Construction Spending YoY (Released 10:00 EST)
Total Vehicle Sales (Released 10:00 EST)
Domestic Vehicle Sales (Released 10:00 EST)

Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Apr)

Survey	n/a
Actual	27.4%
Prior	9.4%
Revised	n/a

Seem to be drifting higher.

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Personal Income (Mar)

Survey	0.4%
Actual	0.3%
Prior	0.5%
Revised	n/a

Not the stuff of recessions.

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Personal Spending (Mar)

Survey	0.2%
Actual	0.4%
Prior	0.1%
Revised	n/a

Muddling through.

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PCE Deflator YoY (Mar)

Survey	3.2%
Actual	3.2%
Prior	3.4%
Revised	n/a

Still far too high for comfort for a mainstream economist.

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PCE Core MoM (Mar)

Survey	0.1%
Actual	0.2%
Prior	0.1%
Revised	n/a

I’m anticipation more 0.3%s for the rest of this year.

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PCE Core YoY (Mar)

Survey	2.0%
Actual	2.1%
Prior	2.0%
Revised	n/a

Starting to move back up.

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Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 26)

Survey	365K
Actual	380K
Prior	342K
Revised	345K

No recession yet.

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Continuing Claims (Apr 19)

Survey	2950K
Actual	3019K
Prior	2934K
Revised	2945K

No recession yet.

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ISM Manufacturing (Apr)

Survey	48.0
Actual	48.6
Prior	48.6
Revised	n/a

Staying above recession levels.

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ISM Prices Paid (Apr)

Survey	83.5
Actual	84.5
Prior	83.5
Revised	n/a

Inflation ripping!

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Construction Spending MoM (Mar)

Survey	-0.7%
Actual	-1.1%
Prior	-0.3%
Revised	0.4%

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Construction Spending YoY (Mar)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-3.4%
Prior	-2.2%
Revised	n/a

Still weak.

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Total Vehicle Sales (Apr)

Survey	15.0M
Actual	—
Prior	15.1M
Revised	—

[comments]

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Domestic Vehicle Sales (Apr)

Survey	11.4M
Actual	–
Prior	11.1M
Revised	–

[comments]

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2008-04-01 US Economic Releases

Posted on April 1, 2008 @ 7:24 pm (Tuesday) by WARREN MOSLER

ISM Manufacturing (Mar)

Survey	47.5
Actual	48.6
Prior	48.3
Revised	n/a

Still soft, but better than expected and not at recession levels of 44 or less.

ISM Prices Paid (Mar)

Survey	75.0
Actual	83.5
Prior	75.5
Revised	n/a

ISM TABLE

Prices paid up and employment up -inflation and a lower output gap- not the direction the Fed wants the economy to be going.

Construction Spending MoM (Feb)

Survey	-1.0%
Actual	-0.3%
Prior	-1.7%
Revised	-1.0%

Better than expected, prior month revised up, and the chart still looks lower but not all that bad.

ABC Consumer Confidence (Mar 30)

Survey	-n/a
Actual	-33
Prior	-31
Revised	n/a

Seems to have bottomed, and today’s stock market action should give it a boost.

Total Vehicle Sales (Mar)

Survey	15.2M
Actual	15.1M
Prior	15.3M
Revised	n/a

Domestic Vehicle Sales

Survey	11.6M
Actual	11.1M
Prior	11.7M
Revised	n/a

Still working its way lower.

2008-03-03 US Economic Releases

Posted on March 3, 2008 @ 9:17 pm (Monday) by WARREN MOSLER

RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Dec)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-7.24%
Prior	-4.17%
Revised	n/a

RPX Composite 28dy Index (Dec)

Survey	n/a
Actual	245.70
Prior	254.29
Revised	n/a

Both were falling into year end.

ISM Manufacturing (Feb)

Survey	48.0
Actual	48.3
Prior	50.7
Revised	n/a

Better than expected. Not yet to recession levels.

ISM Prices Paid (Feb)

Survey	73.5
Actual	75.5
Prior	76.0
Revised	n/a

Price pressures persisting.

Construction Spending MoM (Jan)

Survey	-0.7%
Actual	-1.7%
Prior	-1.1%
Revised	-1.3%

Very weak.

Total Vehicle Sales (Feb)

Survey	15.5M
Actual	15.4M
Prior	15.2M
Revised	n/a

As expected, but drifting to a lower range.

Domestic Vehicle Sales (Feb)

Survey	11.9M
Actual	11.7M
Prior	11.7M
Revised	n/a

Drifting lower.

Same twin themes: weak demand and higher prices.Exports keeping GDP from recession levels, but taking demand from the rest of the world that is also softening.

2008-02-01 US Economic Releases

Posted on February 1, 2008 @ 10:54 am (Friday) by WARREN MOSLER

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan)

Survey	70K
Actual	-17K
Prior	18K
Revised	82K

Last negative number was August – got revised up.

Apart from the unrevised January number, the revised previous numbers don’t look too bad.

(See following report.)

Unemployment Rate

Survey	5.0%
Actual	4.9%
Prior	5.0%
Revised	n/a

Slight downtic.

The Fed calls 4.75% full employment.

So, this is close enough.

Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Jan)

Survey	-20K
Actual	-28K
Prior	-31K
Revised	-20K

Suspiciously low as a per December durable goods and export numbers.

Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Jan)

Survey	0.3%
Actual	0.2%
Prior	0.4%
Revised	n/a

Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Jan)

Survey	3.9%
Actual	3.7%
Prior	3.7%
Revised	n/a

Seems to be under control though a weak productivity number could raise unit labor costs.

Average Weekly Hours

Survey	33.8
Actual	33.7
Prior	33.8
Revised	n/a

Down a bit. Fairly steady.

RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Nov)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-4.1681
Prior	-3.4285
Revised	n/a

RPX Composite 28dy Index (Nov)

Survey	n/a
Actual	254.3
Prior	255.5
Revised	258.9

November housing was weak.

U. of Michigan Confidence (Jan F)

Survey	79.0
Actual	78.4
Prior	80.5
Revised	n/a

Not bad.

Both current and expected improved.

U. of Michigan TABLE

ISM Manufacturing (Jan)

Survey	47.3
Actual	50.7
Prior	47.7
Revised	48.4

Back to growth mode.

ISM Prices Paid (Jan)

Survey	68.0
Actual	76.0
Prior	68.0
Revised	n/a

Inflation ripping here.

Construction Spending MoM (Dec)

Survey	-0.5%
Actual	-1.1%
Prior	0.1%
Revised	-0.4%

Still bumping along the bottom.

2008-01-02 US Economic Releases

Posted on January 3, 2008 @ 12:22 am (Thursday) by WARREN MOSLER

RPX Composite 28dy Index (Oct)

Survey	n/a
Actual	258.86
Prior	259.22
Revised	n/a

RPX Composite 28dy Index YoY (Oct)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-3.4295
Prior	-2.4848
Revised	n/a

Metropolitan housing prices remain very weak.

ISM Manufacturing (Dec)

Survey	50.5
Actual	47.7
Prior	50.8
Revised	n/a

On the weak side – mainly new orders.

Employment ok.

ISM Prices Paid (Dec)

Survey	65.0
Actual	68.0
Prior	67.5
Revised	n/a

No weakness here!

Construction Spending MoM (Nov)

Survey	-0.4%
Actual	0.1%
Prior	-0.8%
Revised	-0.4%

Stronger than expected; may have bottomed.

ABC Consumer Confidence (Dec 30)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-20
Prior	-23
Revised	n/a

Moderately less negative.

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2007-12-03 US Economic Releases

Posted on December 3, 2007 @ 3:48 pm (Monday) by WARREN MOSLER

ISM was the big number – not a lot of new US numbers today.

Unch; but employment component down 4.2pts to below 50 and anecdotes not very comforting

and prices paid up, see below.

What Respondents are Saying..

“Continued concerns regarding high oil prices, weak dollar and weak housing sector.” (Chemical Products)
“Erratic market causing more difficulty in forecasting customer demand.” (Computer & Electronic Products)
“Heavy truck market has not started recovering yet.” (Fabricated Metal Products)
“Business is off by almost 50 percent over last year in the building products industry.” (Nonmetallic Mineral Products)
“More inquiries from international customers than domestic.” (Machinery)

The building products industry has been down for quite a while and exports are picking up the slack.

ISM Manufacturing (Nov)

Survey	50.8
Actual	50.8
Prior	50.9
Revised	n/a

ISM Prices Paid (Nov)

Survey	65.5
Actual	67.5
Prior	63.0
Revised	n/a

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