Ireland Archive

Irish payment coming due at month end

Lots of ‘restructuring talk’ going on- looking like another ‘bondholder tax’ of sorts? From Reuters: Analysts are divided as to whether Ireland’s national debt, which is forecast to peak at 119 percent of GDP in 2013, is sustainable. A policy paper by Ireland’s European partners and the IMF is being drawn up ...Read More

Irish want debt concession if ECB aids Greece

As previously discussed, once Greece does it, it’s compelling for everyone else to do it. It’s the classic fallacy of composition. When someone stands up at a football game to get a better view, it quickly makes sense for everyone else to stand up as well. Yes, you can say they all ...Read More

WARNING- Euro Zone Automatic Fiscal Stabilizers Deactivated!

I now believe that system risk in the euro zone is being grossly under discounted. The implied assumption for the major currency regions is that during a slowdown the automatic fiscal stabilizers- falling government ‘revenues’ and increased transfer payments- will kick in to increase deficit spending, and thereby add the income and ...Read More

Angry Irish Voters Ready to Exact Revenge

Notice that they are angry at the government, not the currency arrangements, as previously discussed. What’s saving the euro is that it’s not intuitively obvious that the currency arrangements could possibly be part of the problem. Rates are low, there’s relatively little inflation, and and the foreign exchange value is reasonably strong ...Read More

Time for England to complete the conquest of Ireland

The UK conquest of Ireland began in 1169. It’s time to finish the job. All they have to do is offer the following: Ireland converts all its public debt to sterling. The UK Treasury takes over the responsibility for all of Ireland’s existing public debt. (Ireland gets a clean start with no ...Read More

Fixing Ireland

So I’ve been asked what I’d do to get Ireland past this latest funding crisis. Answer: I’d announce that in the case of default new Irish govt debt is freely transferable and can be used for the payment of taxes to the Irish govt. This should facilitate funding for the near term. ...Read More

Help Ireland or it will exit euro, economist warns

[Skip to the end] He touches on the domestic demand issue, highlighted below. And while sterling is going down versus the euro, more important is the fiscal response in the UK vs the eurozone. Also, Germany and France are probably not in any position to help, even if they wanted to. Help ...Read More