2008-02-21 US Economic Releases

2008-02-21 Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims (Feb 16)

Survey 349K
Actual 349K
Prior 348K
Revised 358K

Down a bit but lost a day in California. Chart looks like it’s drifted to a bit higher levels.

Still not recession type numbers yet, however.


2008-02-21 Continuing Claims

Continuing Claims (Feb 9)

Survey 2760K
Actual 2784
Prior 2761K
Revised 2736

Also looking like it’s moved up to higher levels, but still far from typical recession levels.


2008-02-21 Philadelphia Fed.

Philadelphia Fed. (Feb)

Survey -10.0
Actual -24.0
Prior -20.9
Revised n/a

Looks serious!  Strange that employment was up 2.5, however, and, of course, prices on the rise.


2008-02-21 Leading Indicators

Leading Indicators (Jan)

Survey -0.1%
Actual -0.1%
Prior -0.2%
Revised -0.1%

Still drifting lower, but no collapse.

2008-02-14 US Economic Releases

2008-02-14 Trade Balance

Trade Balance (Dec)

Survey -$61.5B
Actual -$58.8B
Prior -$63.1B
Revised n/a

Moving lower as it reflects the declining desire of non residents to accumulate $US financial assets. Three main drivers are Paulson calling CB’s who buy $ currency manipulators, the Fed pursuing what looks to the world an ‘inflate your way out of debt’ policy scaring foreigners out of holding $US financial assets, and Bush’s ideological stance discouraging many oil producers from accumulating $US financial assets. And the new fiscal package doesn’t help, either.

Strong exports continue to support GDP and pick up the slack due to weak housing.


2008-02-14 Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims (Feb 9)

Survey 347K
Actual 348K
Prior 356K
Revised 357K

Working their way back down – no recession here.


2008-02-14 Continuing Claims

Continuing Claims (Feb 2)

Survey 2759K
Actual 2761K
Prior 2785K
Revised 2770K

Still at modest levels, and only a very small blip on the long term chart.


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2008-02-07 US Economic Releases

2008-02-07 Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims (Feb 2)

Survey 342K
Actual 356K
Prior 375K
Revised 378K

Moving down, but will need to fall more next week to signal employment is doing reasonably well.


2008-02-07 Continuing Claims

Continuing Claims (Jan 26)

Survey 2715K
Actual 2785K
Prior 2716K
Revised -2710K

Back up a bit, but not through the highs, and reflects lasts weeks higher claims.


2008-02-07 Total Pending Home Sales SA

Total Pending Home Sales SA (Dec)

Survey -1.0%
Actual -1.5%
Prior -2.6%
Revised -3.0%

Down some, but not through the lows. October/November may still have been the bottom of housing.


2008-02-07 ICSC Chain Store Sales YoY

ICSC Chain Store Sales YoY (Jan)

Survey 0.8%
Actual 0.5%
Prior 0.9%
Revised n/a

Been drifting lower for quite a while. Part of the expected softening of domestic demand since Q2 2006.


2008-02-07 Consumer Credit

Consumer Credit (Dec)

Survey $7.4B
Actual $4.5B
Prior $15.4B
Revised $17.1B

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2008-01-31 US Economic Releases

2008-01-31 Personal Income

Personal Income (Dec)

Survey 0.4%
Actual 0.5%
Prior 0.4%
Revised n/a

2008-01-31 Personal Income TABLE

Personal Income TABLE

A bit better than expected, holding up reasonably well, as declining interest rates reduce interest income component.


2008-01-31 Personal Spending

Personal Spending (Dec)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 1.1%
Revised 1.0%

2008-01-31 Personal Spending TABLE(1)

2008-01-31 Personal Spending TABLE(2)

Personal Spending TABLE

OK number after last month’s large increase.

Also holding up reasonably well, but trending modestly downward.


2008-01-31 PCE Deflator YoY

PCE Deflator YoY (Dec)

Survey 3.5%
Actual 3.5%
Prior 3.6%
Revised n/a

Too high for the Fed, but hopefully it will come down to core.


small-2008-01-31-pce-core-mom.gif

PCE Core MoM (Dec)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

Actual was 0.23%


2008-01-31 PCE Core YoY

PCE Core YoY (Dec)

Survey 2.2%
Actual 2.2%
Prior 2.2%
Revised n/a

Fed OK with this number and should be OK next month as January 2007 was up 0.2%. After that, the 2007 numbers are 0.1%’s for a while; so, there’s a better chance of YoY increases after that.


2008-01-31 Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 26)

Survey 319K
Actual 375K
Prior 301K
Revised 306K

Big jump up as expected by Karim.

4 week average about 325,000 likely return to pre-January trend of about 350,000 (See Karim’s report).

Not yet the stuff of recession.


2008-01-31 Continuing Claims

Continuing Claims (Jan 19)

Survey 2685K
Actual 2716K
Prior 2672K
Revised 2669K

Moved back up some.

Also not yet the stuff of recession.


2008-01-31 Employment Cost Index

Employment Cost Index (4Q)

Survey 0.8%
Actual 0.8%
Prior 0.8%
Revised n/a

2008-01-31 Employment Cost Index YoY

Employment Cost Index YoY

Survey n/a
Actual 3.3%
Prior 3.3%
Revised n/a

As expected, Fed is OK with this, but may be giving it too much weight, as it may be the last inflation indicator to move in this cycle.


2008-01-31 Chicago Purchasing Manager

Chicago Purchasing Manager (Jan)

Survey 52.0
Actual 51.5
Prior 56.6
Revised 56.4

Still above 50, not the stuff of recession yet.


2008-01-31 Help Wanted Index

Help Wanted Index (Dec)

Survey 20
Actual 22
Prior 21
Revised n/a

Very small uptick from a very low level.


2008-01-31 NAPM-Milwaukee

NAPM-Milwaukee (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 58.0
Prior 62.0
Revised n/a

No recession here, yet.


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2008-01-24 US Economic Releases

2008-01-24 Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 19)

Survey 320K
Actual 301K
Prior 301K
Revised 302K

Back to the lows.

This means Q4 GDP probably won’t be all that weak.

Full employment recessions are extremely rare.

Exporters must have maintained and/or increased output as well, which will show up in the Dec trade numbers not out until Feb, so watch for upward revisions from next week’s initial GDP report.

And look for exports to continue strong as markets adjust to CB’s no longer accumulating $US financial assets at the same pace.


2008-01-24 Continuing Claims

Continuing Claims (Jan 12)

2008-01-24 Continuing Claims since 1980

Continuing Claims since 1980

Survey 2720K
Actual 2672K
Prior 2715K
Revised 2747K

Also moving lower from a small blip up.

It’s all looking more and more like the great repricing of risk and the rearranging of financial assets hasn’t spilled over into the real economy. Yet.

And it also looks like the Fed may have done the ’emergency cut’ in response to Soc Gen evening up positions.

So the score is 175 bp in cuts into a growing economy and a triple negative supply shock that’s so far generated 4%+ year over year inflation and core numbers rising as well.

And demand for Saudi output is up to 9 million bpd, so their position as swing producer and price setter remains secure.

Not to mention the fiscal package that Bernanke has blessed – gives Congress and the President the green light to pump things up for the election.

And don’t forget Federal spending seems to have been moved forward from 2006 to 2007.

Economy should be at full boil by Q2, as we recover from the full employment recession…

And don’t worry about housing anymore. It’s all backwards looking and is a small enough % of GDP to not be a material negative to growth.

But if/when it turns, and I think that is already happening (but we need to wait until after the winter months to get some reliable data) it all starts to overheat again.


2008-01-24 Existing Home Sales

Existing Home Sales (Dec)

Survey 4.95M
Actual 4.89M
Prior 5.00M
Revised n/a

2008-01-24 Existing Home Sales MoM

Existing Home Sales MoM (Dec)

Survey -1.0%
Actual -2.2%
Prior 0.4%
Revised n/a

Both muddling through the winter months.


2008-01-24 Home Sales Average Price

Home Sales Average Price

2008-01-24 Existing Homes Inventory

Existing Homes Inventory

Inventories did drop some, and prices down only modestly year over year.


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2008-01-17 US Economic Releases

2008-01-17 Housing Starts

Housing Starts (Dec)

Survey 1145K
Actual 1006K
Prior 1187K
Revised 1173K

2008-01-17 Building Permits

Building Permits (Dec)

Survey 1135K
Actual 1068K
Prior 1152K
Revised 1162K

Both still in free fall – may be weather distorted some, but they don’t look good.


2008-01-17 Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 12)

Survey 331K
Actual 301K
Prior 322K
Revised n/a

All the way back down. Seems out of line with housing and Philly Fed.

Could be the government spending kicking in that will subsequently support housing and other spending. (See previous posts on government spending.)

Spending resuming its growth after sagging for a couple of quarters as spending got moved forward.


2008-01-17 Continuing Claims

Continuing Claims (Jan 5)

2008-01-17 Continuing Claims from 1980

Continuing Claims since 1980

Survey 2750K
Actual 2751K
Prior 2702K
Revised 2685K

Back up, but this is a tiny blip on the longer term chart.


2008-01-17 Philadelphia Fed.

Philadelphia Fed. (Jan)

Survey -1.0
Actual -20.9
Prior -5.7
Revised n/a

Falling off a cliff.


2008-01-17 Philadelphia Fed. TABLE

Philadelphia Fed. TABLE

Weakness in every category – except prices paid and received, which skyrocketed.

Adds to the fed’s dilemma.


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2008-01-10 US Economic Releases

2008-01-10 Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 5)

Survey 340K
Actual 322K
Prior 336K
Revised 337K

2008-01-10 Continuing Claims

Continuing Claims (Dec 29)

Survey 2730K
Actual 2702K
Prior 2761K
Revised 2754K

Looks like employment for December was pretty good.


2008-01-10 Wholesale Inventories

Wholesale Inventories (Nov)

Survey 0.4%
Actual 0.6%
Prior 0.0%
Revised

November sales look good, and October revised up.

Inventory/sales ratio hits new low:

U.S. Nov wholesale inventories up 0.6 pct

by Lisa Lambert

(Reuters) Inventories at U.S. wholesalers rose 0.6 percent in November, but they did not keep pace with sales, which saw the biggest monthly increase in more than two years on rising petroleum prices, the government reported Thursday.

The Commerce Department said sales rose by 2.2 percent in November, the biggest monthly gain since September 2005. That reflected an 8.9 percent boost in petroleum sales, which a Commerce Department official said reflected higher prices. It was also
the biggest rise since September 2005, when a devastating hurricane season drove up the price of oil.

Analysts polled by Reuters expected a 0.4 percent gain in inventories, after a flat reading in October, which was unrevised. The department had a big revision in sales during October, reporting a 1.4 percent rise instead of the prior estimate of 0.7 percent.

In a sign businesses are not building up stockpiles as the economy slows, the inventory-to-sales ratio — a measure of the number months it would take to deplete existing stocks at the current sales pace — fell to a record low of 1.07 months from October’s downwardly revised 1.08 months.


2008-01-10 ICSC Chain Store Sales YoY

ICSC Chain Store Sales YoY (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.9%
Prior 3.5%
Revised n/a

Certainly moderating, but not all that bad.


2008-01-03 US Economic Releases

2008-01-03 MBA Mortgage Applications

MBA Mortgage Applications (Dec 28)

Survey n/a
Actual -11/6%
Prior -7.6%
Revised n/a

Last December number – purchase applications normally shoot back up in January.


2008-01-03 Challenger Job Cuts YoY

Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual -18.7%
Prior -4.7%
Revised n/a

Graph looks OK.


2008-01-03 ADP Employment Change

ADP Employment Change (Dec)

Survey 33K
Actual 40K
Prior 189K
Revised 173K

A touch better than expected, trending down some, but fed thinks there are fewer people left to hire. This is a real number as ADP reports the actual number of people on its payroll system.


2008-01-03 Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims

Survey 345K
Actual 336K
Prior 349K
Revised 357K

This kind of drop means there is no weakness indicated here.


2008-01-03 Continuing Claims

Continuing Claims (Dec 22)

2008-01-03 Continuing Claims from 1980

Continuing Claims since 1980

Survey 2675K
Actual 2761K
Prior 2713K
Revised 2715K

Up some, but the long term graph looks fine.


2008-01-03 Factory Orders

Factory Orders (Nov)

Survey 0.5%
Actual 1.5%
Prior 0.5%
Revised 0.7%

No weakness here.


2008-01-03 Total Vehicle Sales

Total Vehicle Sales (Dec)

Survey 16.0M
Actual 16.3M
Prior 16.2M
Revised n/a

Still on the soft side, but no disaster.


2008-01-03 Domestic Vehicle Sales

Domestic Vehicle Sales (Dec)

Survey 12.2M
Actual 12.5M
Prior 12.4M
Revised n/a

As above.


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2007-12-27 US Economic Releases

2007-12-27 MBAVPCH Index

MBAVPCH Index


2007-12-27 MBA Mortgage Application

MBA Mortgage Applications (Dec 21)

Survey n/a
Actual -7.6%
Prior 19.5%
Revised n/a

Goes down this time every year and bounces back early January.


2007-12-27 Durable Goods Orders

Durable Goods Orders (Nov)

Survey 2.0%
Actual 0.1%
Prior -0.4%
Revised -0.4%

2007-12-27 Durables Ex Transporation

Durable Goods Ex Transportation (Nov)

Survey 0.5%
Actual -0.7%
Prior -0.7%
Revised -0.9%

Still drifting lower over time.

Domestic demand has been gradually softening for about a year and a half, as the lower deficit hiked the financial obligation ratios to levels where the rate of consumer credit expansion peaked.


2007-12-27 Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 22)

Survey 340K
Actual 349K
Prior 346K
Revised 348K

2007-12-27 Continuing Claims

Continuing Claims (Dec 15)

Survey 2645K
Actual 2713K
Prior 2646K
Revised 2638K

Drifting up very modestly.


2007-12-27 Consumer Confidence

Consumer Confidence (Dec)

Survey 86.5
Actual 88.6
Prior 87.3
Revised 87.8

CNBC gloominess peaked?


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