Inflation Expectations Archive

china inflation – ft article

Sounds like the ‘managing expectations’ they teach at the western universities. Inflation is under control, says Chinese regulator By Jamil Anderlini December 17 (FT) — “The recent inflation is completely different from the periods of very high inflation that China has encountered in the past,” Mr Liu, chairman of the China Banking ...Read More

2008-08-29 US Economic Releases

[Skip to the end] Personal Income MoM (Released 8:30 EST) Personal Income YoY (Released 8:30 EST) Personal Income TABLE 1 (Released 8:30 EST) Personal Income TABLE 2 (Released 8:30 EST) Personal Spending MoM (Released 8:30 EST) Personal Spending YoY (Released 8:30 EST) PCE Deflator YOY (Released 8:30 EST) PCE Core MoM (Released ...Read More

2008-07-11 US Economic Releases

[Skip to the end] Trade Balance (Released 8:30 EST) Trade Balance ALLX (Released 8:30 EST) Trade Balance Ex Petroleum (Released 8:30 EST) Exports YoY (Released 8:30 EST) Imports YoY (Released 8:30 EST) Import Price Index MoM (Released 8:30 EST) Import Price Index YoY (Released 8:30 EST) U. of Michigan Confidence (Released 10:00 ...Read More

June 9 Bernanke speech

[Skip to the end] Outstanding Issues in the Analysis of Inflation Nonetheless, much remains to be learned about both inflation forecasting and inflation control. In the spirit of this conference, my remarks this evening will highlight some key areas where additional research could help to provide a still-firmer foundation for monetary policymaking. ...Read More

Bernanke on inflation expectations

[Skip to the end] Elevated inflation expectations are unacceptable to a mainstream Central Banker, and Bernanke seems to be clearly telling us we’ve reached his limits. To get ahead of the ‘inflation curve’ will mean interest rates of at least the 5.25% level of last August, when the FOMC didn’t cut because ...Read More

Statement from Meltzer

[Skip to the end] I like this not so much for his suggestion as for his assessment of the Fed. This both expresses the market view of the Fed and the Fed’s own expressed concern that their previous actions could contribute to elevated inflation expectations. “I think they should put interest rates ...Read More

2008-05-30 Data Recap

[Skip to the end] Karim writes:   Core pce up 0.1% m/m and unch at 2.1% y/y (recent high 2.5% in 2/07; recent low 1.9% in 9/07); 3mth annualized rate back to 1.9% Yes, the Fed welcomes this but is concerned about its forecasts given food/energy/import/export prices and pipeline pressures.   Headline ...Read More

5 year tips 5 years forward and recent Fed speeches

[Skip to the end] 5yr Tips 5yr Forward The Fed watches this carefully in regard to inflation expectations, along with surveys and professional forecasts which have gone up considerably. The 5 year tips 5 years forward dipped a couple of months ago on the generally commodity sell off, then fell again for ...Read More

Vice Chair Kohn comment and today’s opening

Recent comment by Fed Vice Chair Donald Kohn: If longer-term inflation expectations were to become unmoored–whether because of a protracted period of elevated headline inflation or because the public misinterpreted the recent substantial policy easing as suggesting that monetary policy makers had a greater tolerance for inflation than previously thought–then I believe ...Read More

Excerpt from Kohn’s speech

My expectations for moderating inflation and limited spillover effects from commodity price increases depend critically on the continued stability of inflation expectations. The FOMC has never wavered on this all important aspect of monetary policy – they firmly believe inflation expectations are what causes a relative value story to turn into an ...Read More