Tag Archives: IEA

Crude Oil Falls on Demand Concerns After IEA Lowers Forecast – Bloomberg.com

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I’m not sure it falls from end of Q1 levels as I see that as the low point of US GDP and motor fuel consumption for this cycle.

This is another example of forecasters not looking to the federal deficits as the drivers of the world economy.

And even a further drop of 2.4 million bpd isn’t enough to dislodge OPEC and the Saudis as they can easily cut that much if they want to support prices.

More interesting is the cut in prices by the Saudis published last week. Seems maybe they aren’t ready for higher prices yet, but instead want to keep prices here to keep investments in substitutes unprofitable. So I agree oil prices could stay in a tight range for a while.

Crude Oil Falls After IEA Cuts Demand Forecast to Five-Year Low

by Christian Schmollinger

April 13 (Bloomberg) — Crude oil fell in New York after the International Energy Agency said 2009 demand may slump to the lowest in five years as factories shut and car sales tumble amid a deepening global recession.

Oil consumption will fall 2.4 million barrels a day this year, about the same amount that Iraq produces, to 83.4 million barrels a day, the IEA said on April 10 as trading in New York and London was closed for the Good Friday holiday. U.S. crude supplies are at their highest since July 1993, the Energy Department said on April 8.


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World crude oil demand

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This small drop in demand does not dislodge the Saudis from resuming their role as swing producer and price setter when the Masters Inventory Liquidation that began in July has run its course and excess inventories are eliminated:

World oil demand to shrink sharply this year: IEA

by David Sheppard

Jan 16 (Reuters) — World oil demand will contract sharply in 2009 as the global economic slowdown further erodes consumption, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday.

The Paris-based agency joined the ranks of forecasters predicting a fall in global oil demand this year, revising its previous 2009 estimate by 940,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 85.3 million bpd — a 500,000 bpd year-on-year fall.


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Crude oil demand revised up

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This means Saudis/Russians will continue to be price setters for at least the next few quarters.

IEA Lifts 2008 World Oil Demand Growth Forecast

By Reuters | 14 Dec 2007 | 05:32 AM ET

World oil demand will grow more quickly than expected next year fueled by the Middle East and proving resilient to record-high prices, the International Energy Agency said on Friday.

The IEA, adviser to 27 industrialized countries, said in its monthly Oil Market Report that demand will rise by 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd) next year, up 200,000 bpd from its previous forecast.

“A lot of this demand is in the non-OECD countries, where we don’t have any downgrades in economic growth forecasts,” said Lawrence Eagles, head of the IEA’s Oil Industry and Markets division.

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