Housing Archive

New home sales

Weak winter sales, but the absolute number of homes in inventory did go down again and is well off the highs. A modest pickup in the sales rate will now translate into a larger drop in the number of months of inventory. The median price is more a function of which category ...Read More

The full employment recession is spreading

Looks like the US full-employment recession is spreading: UK jobless rate falls to 5.2 percent in latest quarter The unemployment rate in the United Kingdom in the last quarter of 2007 fell to 5.2 percent, down from 5.4 percent in the previous quarter, the government said Wednesday. Average earnings, including bonuses, rose ...Read More

Valance Weekly Economic Reports: Global News Highlights

Same twin themes taking hold – weakness and inflation. Highlights: US Mixed data EU Softening data could change ECB’s inflation rhetoric JN CPI Higher on food, energy prices; Mixed data continues UK Housing Market Continued To Show Weakness AU Businesses Less Confident About Q1 economic outlook ♥ ...Read More

U.K. mortgage approvals drop to least since 1999

U.K. Mortgage Approvals Drop to Least Since 1999 By Jennifer Ryan (Bloomberg) U.K. mortgage approvals dropped in December to the lowest in at least nine years, and consumer credit fell, threatening the outlook for economic growth. Lenders granted 73,000 loans for house purchase, down from 81,000 in November and the least since ...Read More

2008-01-25 Balance of Risks Update

Mainstream economics would put it this way: Inflation risk to long term growth vs short term growth risks So on the inflation side: CPI year over year up to 4.1% Core CPI 2.4% year over year, 2.9% month over month (2.5% high end of Fed’s comfort zone) Headline PCE deflator 3.6% year ...Read More

2008-01-21 Update

Major themes intact: weak economy higher prices Weakness: US demand soft but supported by exports. US export strength resulting from non resident ‘desires’ to reduce the rate of accumulation of $US net financial assets. This driving force is ideologically entrenched and not likely to reverse in the next several months. In previous ...Read More

Home prices and OER

Looks like it will take a very large drop in home prices to slow the ‘pull’ on owner’s equivalent rent (the basis for the CPI housing component). ♥ ...Read More

Mortgage applications soar

Home loan demand surges to near four-year high By Julie Haviv (Reuters) U.S. mortgage applications surged last week, with demand hitting its highest in nearly four years as interest rates plunged, an industry group said on Wednesday. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage applications, which includes both ...Read More

Fed’s Lockhart: economic outlook

He is currently leaning towards cuts, but watching carefully for signs of improvements in market functioning and output, and aware of the risks of his inflation forecast being wrong. Fed’s Lockhart: Economic Outlook From Atlanta Fed President Dennis P. Lockhart: The Economy in 2008 Looking to 2008, I believe the pivotal question—the ...Read More

Re: liquidity or insolvency–does it matter?

(email with Randall Wray) On Dec 15, 2007 9:05 PM, Wray, Randall wrote: > By ________ > > This time the magic isn’t working. > > Why not? Because the problem with the markets isn’t just a lack of liquidity – there’s also a fundamental problem of solvency. > > Let me ...Read More