GDP Archive

Comments on 8:30 numbers

Retail sales weak today, but exports up over 16% earlier this week, and jobless claims now settling in around 350,000 – far from recession levels. That’s what export economies look like. Meanwhile, non oil import prices up 0.6%, and export prices up 0.9%. US GDP growth may be hovering around zero, but ...Read More

Re: GDP/claims

(an interoffice email) On Thu, Feb 28, 2008 at 9:38 AM, Karim wrote:   Housing and business capex weaker than originally estimated; exports stronger All above offset to leave gwth at 0.6% annualized in Q4 Yes, nominal growth falls to 3.3% from 6.0% in Q3 as well.   More important news is ...Read More

Bloomberg: Fed Sees Rate Low `for a Time’ Then Possible Reversal

Fed Sees Rate Low `for a Time’ Then Possible Reversal (Update1) by Scott Lanman (Bloomberg) Federal Reserve officials signaled they are prepared to quickly reverse last month’s interest-rate cuts after concluding that borrowing costs need to be kept low for now. Policy makers cut their 2008 growth forecasts and said that rates ...Read More

Bernanke preview

If inflation is now above Bernanke’s comfort zone, as per Yellen who has been more dovish than Bermanke, and above their long-term target of maybe 2%, it can only be brought down by maintaining an output gap greater than zero under the mainstream theory they all subscribe to. Particularly with the negative ...Read More

Another Yellen speech

Prospects for the U.S. Economy in 2008 (intro remarks snipped) Today I’d like to talk about developments in the economy and in monetary policy, two items that have definitely been making the news lately. On January 22, the Federal Open Market Committee cut its main policy rate—the federal funds rate—by three-quarters of ...Read More

Yellen on inflation

SF Fed president Yellen on inflation, from yesterday’s speech in Hawaii: Now let me turn to inflation. The recent news has been disappointing. Over the past three months, the personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy, or the core PCE price index—one of the key measures included in the FOMC’s ...Read More

Updated January 31 month end report

Please excuse the mix of Bloomberg and Valance graphs. Comments welcome. Went blurry eyed trying to organize it all. Markets reacted strongly to Friday’s -17,000 non-farm payroll number. Several sources called it the first negative payroll number in 4 years. How quickly they forget the first negative number was the initial August ...Read More

Claims, ECI

From Karim: True to the past 5yrs pattern, claims seem to be reverting to trend after the first few weeks of January. Right, good call! IJC climbed from 306k to 375k; the trend before the January drop was around 340-350k; this number was for MLK holiday week, so an adjustment issue here ...Read More


From Karim: GDP slows from 4.9% to 0.6% Personal consumption slows from 2.8% to 2.5% DGO strength in Dec shows up in modest positive in equipment and software (+3.8%) Residential FI (housing) down 23.9% Core PCE up 2.7% annualized for quarter and 2.1% y/y Net exports add 0.4% to gwth Inventories a ...Read More

2008-01-30 US Economic Releases

MBAVPRCH Index + 4 Wk Ave + 12 Wk Ave From Karim: very volatile series-see chart-white line is purchase index-purple line is 4wk avg and green line is 12wk avg-latter is probably best indicator of trend and looks like still heading lower. Of course this series also reflects multiple applications for same ...Read More