Europe Archive

U.S. and Eur Data/GDP Downgrades

Karim writes: U.S. data on the soft side (October) Most notable is core durable goods orders (capex has been gwth leader of late) falling 1.8% and 3mth annual rate slowing to 4% from 7.3% Core shipments (more important for current quarter growth) down 1.1% Personal spending up 0.1%. Personal income up 0.4% ...Read More

CNBC’s John Carney on Krugman and MMT

>    >   (email exchange) >    >   On Sat, Nov 12, 2011 at 2:19 PM, Stephanie wrote: >    >   John Carney loving on us again Yes! Paul Krugman Goes MMT on Italy By John Carney November 11 (CNBC) — It seems pretty clear that the school of thought known as Modern Monetary Theory has made a ...Read More

Talk still cheap – ECB writes the check again

Lots of talk, particularly from Germany about the ECB not writing the check, due to (errant) inflation concerns. But to no avail. In fact, with the Rubicon crossing decision to haircut Greek bonds 50% for the private sector’s holdings, expect the check writing to continue to intensify. And expect economies to continue ...Read More

For BTPS & SPGBs all inter dealer screens have gone blank

As previously discussed, it’s hard to see how anyone with fiduciary responsibility can buy Italian debt or any other member nation debt after EU officials announced the plan for 50% haircuts on Greek bonds held by the private sector. Yes, all governments have the authority, one way or another, to confiscate an ...Read More

MMT, The Euro And The Greatest Prediction Of The Last 20 Years?

Thanks, Cullen!!! MMT, The Euro And The Greatest Prediction Of The Last 20 Years? By Cullen Roche November 7 (Seeking Alpha) —Being right matters. This isn’t emphasized quite enough in the finance world and in economics in general. Too often, bad theory has led to bad predictions which has helped contribute to ...Read More

News recap comments

The news flow from last week was so voluminous it was nearly impossible to process. For good measure I want to start today’s commentary with a simple recap of what happened. On the negative side – · Greece called a referendum and threw bailout plans up in the air taking Greek 2yrs ...Read More

Credit spillovers from Eur banks to EM

Makes sense. I always wondered how that loan demand was accommodated. Never looked like the kind of lending US regulators would sanction. Karim writes: Interesting table from JPM. Much larger dependence on credit from Eur banks for LATAM economies than from U.S. banks. Poland/Russia not as surprising but still large! Overall, domestic ...Read More

CBO Congressional Report- U.S. Could Face European-Style Debt Crisis

How about the accounts sticking to accounting. Just in case you thought there was any hope: But most ominously, the CBO report warns of a “sudden fiscal crisis” in which investors would lose faith in the U.S. government’s ability to manage its fiscal affairs. In such a fiscal panic, investors might abandon ...Read More

Major Banks Likely to Get Reprieve on New Capital Rules

The real problem is if you understand what a bank is, you wouldn’t be trying to use capital ratios to protect taxpayer money. First, notice that the many of the same people clamoring for higher capital ratios have also supported ‘nationalization’ of banks, which means there is no private capital. So it ...Read More

Euro News Highlights

[Skip to the end] This raises national budget deficits and inches them closer to a liquidity crisis: Highlights Europe Unemployment Rate Rises More Than Expected Trichet Says Spending, Deficits Can’t Keep Rising, Le Monde Says Germany’s Steinbrueck Says New GDP Outlook to Be Clearly Worse German Retail Sales Unexpectedly Fall After Unemployment ...Read More