EU stance shifts on Greece default

Mosler bonds issued to both address current funding requirements and buy back discounted Greek govt debt would further enhance the credit worthiness of those bonds by further and substantially reducing Greek govt interest expense.

Interesting how the word now coming out on the French plan, which initially was greeted with a near celebration, is now entirely negative to the point where it’s being dismissed.

And default discussions now moving to the front burner is telling, as just last week that was proclaimed ‘out of the question’

EU stance shifts on Greece default

By Peter Spiegel and Patrick Jenkins

July 10 (FT) — European leaders are for the first time prepared to accept that Athens should default on some of its bonds as part of a new bail-out plan for Greece that would put the country’s overall debt levels on a sustainable footing.

The new strategy, to be discussed at a Brussels meeting of eurozone finance ministers on Monday, could also include new concessions by Greece’s European lenders to reduce Athens’ debt, such as further lowering interest rates on bail-out loans and a broad-based bond buyback programme. It also marks the possible abandonment of a French-backed plan for banks to roll-over their Greek debt.

“The basic goal is to reduce the debt burden of Greece both through actions of the private sector and the public sector,” said one senior European official involved in negotiations.

Officials cautioned the new tack was still in the early stages, and final details were not expected until late summer. But if the strategy were agreed, it would mark a significant shift in the 18-month struggle to contain the eurozone debt crisis.

Until now, European leaders have been reluctant to back any plan categorised as a default for fear it could lead to a flight by investors from all bonds issued by peripheral eurozone countries – including Italy and Spain, the eurozone’s third and fourth largest economies.

Yields on Italian bonds, which move inversely to prices, rose sharply last week due to the Greek uncertainty. Senior European leaders – including Jean-Claude Trichet, European Central Bank chief, and Jean-Claude Junker, head of the euro group – are to meet top European Union officials ahead of Monday’s finance ministers’ gathering amidst growing fears of contagion.

A German-led group of creditor countries has for weeks been attempting to get “voluntary” help from private bondholders to delay repayment of Greek bonds, a move they hoped would lower Greece’s overall debt while avoiding a default.

But in recent days, debt rating agencies warned any attempt to get bondholders to participate would represent a selective default. Rather than abandon bondholder buy-ins, however, several European leaders have decided to return to a German-backed plan to push current Greek debt holders to swap their holdings for new, longer-maturing bonds.

The move essentially scraps a French proposal unveiled last month, which many analysts believed would only add to Greek debt levels by offering expensive incentives for banks that hold Greek debt to roll over their maturing bonds.

Officials said the Institute of International Finance, the group representing large banks holding Greek debt, has gradually moved away from the French plan and begun to embrace elements of the German plan.

“There’s some convergence in the banking community towards a more realistic plan than the French plan, which was out of this world,” said the senior European official. The plan criticised as being self-serving for the banks.

According to executives involved in the IIF talks, banks have pushed for a Greek bond buyback plan in return for agreeing to a restructuring programme, arguing that only if Greece’s overall debt were reduced could a sustainable recovery occur.

European officials said there was support for the proposal in government circles. The plan, originally pushed by German investors, including Deutsche Bank, could see as much as 10 per cent of outstanding Greek debt repurchased on the open market.

Since Greek bonds are currently trading below face value, such purchases would essentially be a voluntary “haircut”, since bondholders would accept payment for far less than the bonds are worth.

It remains unclear how a buyback would be financed, however. The European Commission has long pushed for the eurozone’s €440bn bail-out fund to be used for buybacks, but Berlin blocked the proposal.

Greece on the slippery slope

First, I think there isn’t enough political or popular support to leave the euro and go back to the drachma.

As previously discussed, it’s not obvious to the population or the political leadership that there is anything wrong with the euro itself.

Instead, it probably seems obvious the problem is the result of irresponsible leadership, and now they are all paying the price.

So staying with the euro, Greece has two immediate choices:

1. Negotiate the best austerity terms and conditions they can, and continue to muddle through.

2. Don’t accept them and default

Accepting the terms of the austerity package offered means some combination of spending cuts, tax hikes, assets sales, etc. that still leaves a sizable deficit for the next few years, with a glide path to some presumably sustainable level of deficit spending.

Defaulting means no more borrowing at all for most likely a considerable period of time, which means at least for a while they will only be able to spend the actual tax revenue they take in, which means immediately going to a 0 deficit.

What matters to Greece, on a practical level, is how large a deficit they are allowed to run. This makes default a lot more painful than any austerity package that allows for the funding of at least some size deficit.

Therefore it’s makes the most sense for Greece to accept the best package they can negotiate, rather than to refuse and default.

Additionally, the funding Greece will need to keep going is probably funding to pay for goods and services from Germany and some of the other euro member nations.

In other words, if Germany wants to get paid for its stream of exports to Greece it must approve some kind of funding package.

Reminds me of a an old story Woody Allen popularized a while back:

Doctor: So what’s the problem?

Patient: It’s my brother. He thinks he’s a chicken.

Doctor: Have you tried to talk to him about it?

Patient: No

Doctor: Why not?

Patient: Well, we need the eggs

Likewise the euro zone needs the eggs, and so the most likely path continues to be some manner of ECB funding of the banking system and the national govt’s, as needed, last minute, kicking and screaming about how they need an exit strategy, etc. etc. etc. And the unspoken pressure relief valve is inflation, with a falling euro leading the march. It’s unspoken because the ECB has a single mandate of price stability, which is not compatible with a continuously falling euro, and because a strong euro is an important part of the union’s ideology. But a weak euro that adjusts the price level, as a practical matter, is nonetheless the only pressure relief valve they have for their debt issues in general. And, also as previously discussed, it looks like market forces may be conspiring to move it all in that direction.

CNBC article quoted me today

I got a nice mention in a CNBC article today:


Why Portugal Downgrade Didn’t Slam Stocks

By Antonia Oprita

July 13 (CNBC) — Investors do not see Portugal’s rating downgrade by Moody’s as an event that will shake the markets, but it confirms the fact that the outlook for some economies in the euro zone is still cloudy, economists and market analysts told CNBC Tuesday.

Moody’s slashed Portugal’s credit rating by two notches to A1, citing a deterioration of the country’s debt ratios and weak growth prospects.

Portugal’s debt-to-GDP and debt-to-revenue ratios have risen rapidly in the past two years, Anthony Thomas, vice president and senior analyst in Moody’s Sovereign Risk Group, said in a statement.

The euro fell after the announcement and the spread between Portuguese and German 10-year government bonds widened by 4 basis points to 290 points.

“The bond markets response hasn’t been dramatic,” Martin van Vliet, euro-zone economist at ING Bank, told CNBC.com.

The downgrade came a little before a Greek auction to sell 6-month T-bills, the first since a bailout package agreed by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund in May.

Greece sold 1.625 billion euros ($2.03 billion) of 6-month instruments at a yield of 4.65 percent, up from 4.55 percent in a similar auction on April 13, according to Reuters.

“The markets will probably reason that the risk of default in six months is small,” van Vliet said.

Growth Is Key

Economic growth in Europe’s peripheral countries will be crucial to bring back investor confidence but more and more analysts fear a slowdown in the second quarter everywhere in the world.

“The outlook for Portugal is not particularly optimistic,” David Tinsley, economist at National Bank of Australia, said. “It is in a very slow growth trajectory and therefore all its fiscal retrenchment has got to come from public spending cuts.”

Over the longer term, investors are still afraid of the risk of default and European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet hinted that the need to intervene by buying bonds is not that strong any longer, according to van Vliet.

“My guess is that they will have to continue buying bonds,” he said. “It all depends on whether the economy will start growing in Greece.”

The risk of default by one of the southern European countries was the main fear in the markets earlier this year, when ratings downgrades sparked massive selloffs in stocks as well as bonds and investors were taking refuge in US Treasurys, gold and cash.

“The process of credit downgrades reinforcing confidence erosion, I think that’s a bit over,” van Vliet said.

Default Risk Is Gone

Investors will slowly realize that the risk of default by European nations on their debt is gone, and they will push up stock prices and the euro, according to economist Warren Mosler, founder and principal of broker/dealer AVM.

In June, Mosler told CNBC.com the euro was likely to rise to between $1.50 and $1.60 because of the austerity measures in Europe.

He reaffirmed his stance, saying that there had been a “mad rush for the exits” by Europeans, who bought dollars and gold, pushing the euro down, when the default risk was high.

But the ECB’s decision to buy Greek bonds showed the bank was ready to spend money to defend countries in the euro zone and “there is no limit to what the ECB can spend,” Mosler told CNBC.com.

The ECB has put itself in a top position by doing this, as it can impose terms and conditions on any country that sells it its bonds, he explained.

“What that did is it shifted power from fiscal policy to the ECB,” Mosler said. “I would say they will not buy these bonds unless they can impose their terms and conditions.”

“It allows them to cut out one member selectively, without the whole system collapsing,” he said.

US Plays Down European Crisis but China Worried

Yes, China is worried- they own the national govt paper a part of their currency reserves

US Plays Down European Crisis but China Worried

The United States suggested Europe’s debt crisis would have minimal impact on global growth, but China took a more pessimistic view, warning it would impact demand for its exports and other regions would suffer too.

Germany Seeks ‘Orderly’ Insolvency Option for Euro Members

Germany Seeks ‘Orderly’ Insolvency Option for Euro Members

(Bloomberg) Germany is proposing that the European Union create the option of an “orderly state insolvency” for countries using the euro, according to a Finance Ministry document. That would set incentives for governments to follow “solid” fiscal policies and for “responsible” behavior by investors, the document said.

This is a very critical issue. Germany doesn’t want to have to write the check for other euro member’s debt.
An ‘orderly state insolvency’ would mean the lenders would lose their investment rather than get bailed out.

The main problem with this is that by making insolvency a viable option, euro members become subject to increased liquidity risk. And, in the case of actual insolvency and legal debt write downs, euro bank assets are written down as well, subjecting them to increased liquidity risk as well.