2008-06-06 Economic Releases


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2008-06-06 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (May)

Survey -60K
Actual -49K
Prior -20K
Revised -28K

Down 49,000 was better than expected.
Previous months revised down an additional total of 15,000.

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2008-06-06 Unemployment Rate

Unemployment Rate (May)

Survey 5.1%
Actual 5.5%
Prior 5.0%
Revised n/a

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2008-06-06 Unemployment Rate ALLX

Unemployment Rate ALLX

Total employment is over 138 million, and the seasonal adjustment dropped the actual number by over 1.5 million jobs.

So this report is fighting strong seasonal adjustments.

5.5% unemployment from the household survey is a lot worse than expected.

Seems 500,000 new job seekers entered the labor force in that survey, apparently a statistical quirk added that many teenagers and 20-24 year olds out of sync with seasonal adjustments.

Even so, the labor markets remain on the weak side.

But they are strong enough to support crude at $131.72 (as Saudi oil production continues to grow at even these higher prices and headline inflation) is well north of 4%, as the May CPI is expected to show.

Employment is also strong enough to yield positive GDP growth – no recession yet.

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2008-06-06 Change in Manufacturing Payrolls

Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (May)

Survey -40K
Actual -26K
Prior -46K
Revised -49

Better than expected, in line with other recent report.

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2008-06-06 Average Hourly Earnings MoM

Average Hourly Earnings MoM (May)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.1%
Revised n/a

A touch higher than expected, but not that bad.

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2008-06-06 Average Hourly Earnings YoY

Average Hourly Earnings YoY (May)

Survey 3.4%
Actual 3.5%
Prior 3.4%
Revised 3.5%

Also a bit higher than expected, but still not moving higher.

‘Wage inflation’ is not the issue, nor is it necessary condition for problematic inflation, especially in an export economy.

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2008-06-06 Average Weekly Hours

Average Weekly Hours (May)

Survey 33.7
Actual 33.7
Prior 33.7
Revised n/a

Holding steady.

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2008-06-06 Wholesale Inventories MoM

Wholesale Inventories MoM (April)

Survey 0.4%
Actual 1.3%
Prior -0.1%
Revised 0.1%

Higher than expected, but not at recession levels yet.

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2008-06-06 Wholesale Inventories YoY

Wholesale Inventories YoY (April)

Survey n/a
Actual 8.1%
Prior 7.0%
Revised n/a

Higher than expected, but still not all that high.

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2008-06-06 Consumer Credit

Consumer Credit (April)

Survey $7.2B
Actual $8.9B
Prior $15.3B
Revised $13.1B

This month a bit better than expected, last month revised down a bit. Consumer credit seems to be chugging along at better than recession levels.


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2008-05-07 US Economic Releases


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2008-05-07 MBAVPRCH Index

MBAVPRCH Index (May 2)

Survey n/a
Actual 381.3
Prior 340.1
Revised n/a

Seems to have at least stabilized.

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2008-05-07 MBAVREFI Index

MBAVREFI Index (May 2)

Survey n/a
Actual 2773.8
Prior 1905.2
Revised n/a

Doing okay.

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2008-05-07 Nonfarm Productivity

Nonfarm Productivity (1Q P)

Survey 1.5%
Actual 2.2%
Prior 1.9%
Revised 1.8%

Better than expected. Usually rises with output.

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2008-05-07 Unit Labor Costs

Unit Labor Costs (1Q P)

Survey 2.6%
Actual 2.2%
Prior 2.6%
Revised 2.8%

Better then expected, prior revised up. This series isn’t doing much.

Look to imports from China for a handle on unit labor costs as well.

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2008-05-07 Pending Home Sales MoM

Pending Home Sales MoM (Mar)

Survey -1.0%
Actual -1.0%
Prior -1.9%
Revised -2.8%

Still falling some, seasonally adjusted, and with actual inventory going down there is less to buy.

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2008-05-07 Consumer Credit

Consumer Credit (Mar)

Survey $6.0B
Actual $15.3B
Prior $5.2B
Revised $6.5B

Volatile series.
Seems to be holding up as incomes hold up.

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2008-03-07 US Economic Releases

2008-03-07 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb)

2008-03-07 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls since 1980

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls since 1980

Survey 23K
Actual -63K
Prior -17K
Revised -22K

2008-03-07 Unemployment Rate

Unemployment Rate (Feb)

Survey 5.0%
Actual 4.8%
Prior 4.9%
Revised n/a

The longer term chart is definitely looking lower/weaker, but not yet at recession levels, and is not ‘population adjusted.’

This give the Fed no comfort regarding inflation concerns.

The output gap is may already too low to bring inflation down, and their forecasts are for a (modest) pickup in growth when the fiscal package kicks in beginning early May.

In their models, it’s the forecast of rising unemployment that is responsible for the slack that brings inflation back into comfort zones.

Today’s 4.8% unemployment number is a step in the wrong direction for that to happen.


2008-03-07 Change in Manufacturing Payrolls

Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Feb)

Survey -25K
Actual -52K
Prior -28K
Revised -31K

Manufacturing employment falls indefinitely in a modern economy.


2008-03-07 Average Hourly Earnings MoM

Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Feb)

Survey 0.3%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.2%
Revised 0.3%

The Fed wants these to remain reasonably well-contained.


2008-03-07 Average Hourly Earnings YoY

Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Feb)

Survey 3.6%
Actual 3.7%
Prior 3.7%
Revised n/a

As above.


2008-03-07 Average Weekly Hours

Average Weekly Hours (Feb)

Survey 33.7
Actual 33.7
Prior 33.7
Revised n/a

Down a tad.


Coming soon!

Consumer Credit (Jan)

Survey $7.0B
Actual
Prior $4.5B
Revised

[comments]

2008-02-07 US Economic Releases

2008-02-07 Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims (Feb 2)

Survey 342K
Actual 356K
Prior 375K
Revised 378K

Moving down, but will need to fall more next week to signal employment is doing reasonably well.


2008-02-07 Continuing Claims

Continuing Claims (Jan 26)

Survey 2715K
Actual 2785K
Prior 2716K
Revised -2710K

Back up a bit, but not through the highs, and reflects lasts weeks higher claims.


2008-02-07 Total Pending Home Sales SA

Total Pending Home Sales SA (Dec)

Survey -1.0%
Actual -1.5%
Prior -2.6%
Revised -3.0%

Down some, but not through the lows. October/November may still have been the bottom of housing.


2008-02-07 ICSC Chain Store Sales YoY

ICSC Chain Store Sales YoY (Jan)

Survey 0.8%
Actual 0.5%
Prior 0.9%
Revised n/a

Been drifting lower for quite a while. Part of the expected softening of domestic demand since Q2 2006.


2008-02-07 Consumer Credit

Consumer Credit (Dec)

Survey $7.4B
Actual $4.5B
Prior $15.4B
Revised $17.1B

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2008-01-08 US Economic Releases

2008-01-08 Pending Sales Total SA

Pending Home Sales Total SA

Survey -0.7%
Actual -2.6%
Prior 0.6%
Revised n/a

Down a touch but not through the lows, could still be forming a bottom.


ibd-tipp-economic-optimism-graph.gif

Economic
Outlook
Personal
Financial
Outlook
Federal
Economic
Policies
Overall
Jan. 2008 31.4 55.7 42.7 43.2
Dec. 2007 32.1 58.3 42.7 44.4
Nov. 2007 30.8 53.5 47.1 43.8
Oct. 2007 38.5 58.2 45.1 47.3
Sept. 2007 37.9 59.3 47.3 48.2
Aug. 2007 40.3 59.8 48.5 49.5
July 2007 39.5 58.3 46.8 48.2
June 2007 41.3 58.9 47.1 49.1
May 2007 39.1 57.6 47.3 48
April 2007 34.9 56.2 45.3 45.5
March 2007 41.5 61.1 49.8 50.8
Feb. 2007 46.4 60.8 51 52.7

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (Jan) TABLE

Survey 43.0
Actual 43.2
Prior 44.4
Revised n/a

Speaks for itself…


2008-01-08 Consumer Credit Net Net Change

Consumer Credit Total Net Change

Survey $8.0B
Actual $15.4B
Prior $4.7B
Revised $2.0B

Explains November spending strength and probably borrowed from December due to how the holidays fell.


2008-01-08 ABC Consumer Confidence

ABC Consumer Confidence

Survey -20
Actual -20
Prior -20
Revised n/a

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2007-12-07 US Economic Releases

On 12/7/07, Karim Basta wrote:
>
>
> NFP +94k
> Net revisions -48k, with Sep revised from 96k to 44k (lowest mthly gain
> since 2/04)But October revised up to 170,000, indicating Sep the low so far, and
> improvement since then. And the Fed surely remember Sep 11 meeting
> where the Aug employment number was reported down and later revised to
> a relatively strong up number.

> UE rate down from 4.727% to 4.658%

And the Fed is concerned a falling labor force participation rate due to demographics means labor tightening with fewer new jobs.

> Most important to me was the diffusion index dropping below 50 (more
> industries losing jobs than gaining jobs) for the first time since Sep 2003

Yes, but only just below to 49.8 from 53.

> Retail job change from -15k to +24k looks suspect and reflective of poor
> seasonal adjustment factor;likely borrowing heavily from Dec job gwth
> Index of aggregate hours up 0.1% and avg hrly earnings up 0.5% (off a low
> 0.2% last mth)

Might result in Fed upward revisions for q4 gdp?

>
> Base case for next week is -25bps on FF and -50bps on DR.

2007-12-07 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov)

Survey 80K
Actual 94K
Prior 166K
Revised 170K

Better than forecasting, and jobs being added about as fast as the fed thinks possible given fed perception of current demographics – no slack evident. Sept revised down and October up to 170,000 so the chart looks fine.


2007-12-07 Unemployment Rate

Unemployment Rate (Nov)

 

Survey 4.8%
Actual 4.7%
Prior 4.7%
Revised n/a

 

Better than forecast, and still well below the fed’s ‘unspoken’ concern that anything below 5% is more than non-inflationary full employment level.


2007-12-07 Change in Manufacturing Payrolls

Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Nov)

 

Survey -15K
Actual -11K
Prior -21K
Revised -15K

 

2007-12-07 Average Hourly Earnings MoM

Average Hourly Earnings MoM

 

Survey 0.3%
Actual 0.5%
Prior 0.2%
Revised 0.1%

 

Above expectations, nudges up inflation risk.


2007-12-07 Average Hourly Earnings YoY

Average Hourly Earnings YoY

 

Survey 3.8%
Actual 3.8%
Prior 3.8%
Revised 3.6%

 

2007-12-07 Average Weekly Hours

Average Weekly Hours (Nov)

 

Survey 33.8
Actual 33.8
Prior 33.8
Revised n/a

 

Total hours holding up nicely and growing some – could see Q4 GPD numbers revised up by some firms.


2007-12-07 U. of Michigan Confidence

U. of Michigan Confidence (Dec P)

Survey 75.0
Actual 74.5
Prior 76.1
Revised n/a

 

This is also from watching CNBC.


2007-12-07 Comsumer Credit

Consumer Credit (Oct)

Survey $5.0
Actual $4.7B
Prior $3.7B
Revised $3.2B

 

Still in a reasonably narrow range.


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