Confidence Index decreased to 58.6

Not conclusive but a bit of evidence the FICA hike is beginning to take a toll.

From Gail:

The Conference Boards Consumer Confidence Index decreased to 58.6, the weakest since November 2011, from a revised 66.7 in December

January 29 — Says Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board: Consumer Confidence posted another sharp decline in January, erasing all of the gains made through 2012. Consumers are more pessimistic about the economic outlook and, in particular, their financial situation. The increase in the payroll tax has undoubtedly dampened consumers spirits and it may take a while for confidence to rebound and consumers to recover from their initial paycheck shock. Consumers appraisal of current conditions deteriorated in January. Those claiming business conditions are good declined to 16.7 percent from 17.2 percent, while those stating business conditions are bad increased to 27.4 percent from 26.3 percent. Consumers assessment of the labor market has also grown more negative. Those saying jobs are plentiful declined to 8.6 percent from 10.8 percent, while those claiming jobs are hard to get increased to 37.7 percent from 36.1 percent.

UK News

As in the US, with a large federal budget deficit consumers can spend out of income rather than debt and the economy do reasonably well.

And should they start spending out of both income and debt it gets that much better.

Bank of England Interest Rates to Reach 8% by 2012, Lilico Says

By Scott Hamilton

Aug. 23 (Bloomberg) — Bank of England policy makers will
raise the benchmark interest rate to about 8 percent in 2012 to
combat surging inflation sparked by “explosive” economic
growth, Policy Exchange Chief Economist Andrew Lilico said.

Annual consumer-price gains may accelerate to more than 6
percent in two years as officials expand bond purchases and keep
the interest rate at a record low of 0.5 percent to fight the
threat of a renewed recession, Lilico said in a telephone
interview from the London-based research group today.

While “a dip down in the economy” will slow interest-rate
increases, that will leave the Bank of England “behind the
curve” when it needs to tackle inflation, Lilico said.

The U.K. economy grew 1.1 percent in the second quarter in
the fastest expansion for four years. Bank of England Governor
Mervyn King said this month that inflation, at 3.1 percent in
July, has been faster than officials forecast and may keep
exceeding the government’s upper 3 percent limit into next year.

“The scope for a very strong recovery is definitely
there,” Lilico said. “Once it’s going they’ll find it very
hard to control because the growth will explosive. They’ll get a
big boom and then they’ll have to tighten hard. Our ideas of
what a normal interest rate is to deal with a boom need to be a
bit more realistic than they are now.”

Bank of England officials this month maintained emergency
stimulus to aid the economy during the biggest budget squeeze
since World War II.

Policy makers “need to do enough in terms of keeping
interest rates low and probably doing additional quantitative
easing to avoid that double dip turning into a double slump,”
Lilico said. “It’s not that policy makers are getting it wrong
— they’re getting it right — I just think the consequences of
them getting it right will in the end be inflation.”

U.K. Consumer Finance, Business Confidence Show Weakness

By Craig Stirling

Aug. 23 (Bloomberg) — A U.K. index of consumer finances
stayed close to the lowest level in almost a year in August and
a quarterly gauge of business confidence weakened, evidence
Britain’s economic recovery may be waning.

The measure of finances, based on a survey of 2,000
households, was at 37.9, little changed from July’s reading of
37.2, Markit Economics Ltd. and YouGov Plc said in an e-mailed
statement today. Readings below 50 indicate deterioration. The
index of business confidence fell 4 points in the third quarter
to 21.5, Grant Thornton and the Institute of Chartered
Accountancy in England and Wales said, citing a survey of 1,000
members.

“A downbeat mood spans the household income spectrum, but
remains most acute amongst the lowest earners,” Tim Moore, an
economist at Markit, said in the statement. “Household finances
continue to suffer from a backdrop of squeezed disposable
income, stubbornly high inflation and ongoing public sector
spending cuts.”

While economists predict gross domestic product data this
week will confirm Britain had its best growth since 2006 in the
second quarter, surveys have signaled the pace of expansion may
have weakened since then. Bank of England policy makers kept
open the option of adding emergency stimulus this month to aid
the economy as public-spending cuts loom.

Grant Thornton and the ICAEW conducted their quarterly
survey by telephone from April 29 to July 22. YouGov collected
responses online for the monthly Markit household survey.

CPI/IP/Michigan


[Skip to the end]

Yes, there’s clearly an ‘unidentified demand leakage’ to have all this deficit spending with demand only holding at very low levels.

I keep coming back to the depressing effects of low interest rates and a large Fed portfolio shifting interest income from savers to govt., banks, and corporate borrowers with consumers who borrow getting very little benefit as incomes at best stagnate.

As Bernanke stated in his 2004 paper, the fiscal drag from lower interest rates can be offset by a tax cut or fed spending increase.


Karim writes:

Biggest news this morning was surprising drop in Michigan survey. Despite equity rally, lower gas prices and labor market becoming ‘less bad’, Michigan survey drops 2.8pts to lowest level since March. Consumer still nowhere to be found in current ‘recovery’.

  • Michigan Survey falls from 66 to 63.2
  • 1y Fwd Inflation expex drop from 3.0 to 2.9; 5-10yr fwd from 2.9 to 2.8
  • IP for July up 0.5%; aided by auto production; ex-autos -0.1%
  • CPI unchanged m/m for both headline and core; headline -2.1% y/y and core +1.5%
  • OER (Unch) and lodging away from home (-2.1%) offset apparel (0.6%), vehicles (0.3%) and tobacco (2.2%).
  • Look for quirks in vehicle pricing to resolve in coming months and help drive core below 1% by yr-end.


[top]

2009-03-31 USER


[Skip to the end]


ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Mar 31)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.2%
Prior -1.4%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Mar 31)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.1%
Prior -0.4%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Mar 31)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.6%
Prior -1.3%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

Redbook Store Sales MoM (Mar 31)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.0%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Mar 31)

[top][end]


S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index (Jan)

Survey 147.20
Actual 146.40
Prior 150.66
Revised 150.56

[top][end]

S&P CS Composite 20 YoY (Jan)

Survey -18.60%
Actual -18.97%
Prior -18.55%
Revised -18.60%

[top][end]

S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 139.14
Prior 150.00
Revised n/a

[top][end]

S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index YoY (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual -18.23%
Prior -16.55%
Revised n/a

[top][end]


Chicago Purchasing Manager (Mar)

Survey 34.3
Actual 31.4
Prior 34.2
Revised n/a

[top][end]


Consumer Confidence (Mar)

Survey 28.0
Actual 26.0
Prior 25.0
Revised 25.3

[top][end]

Consumer Confidence ALLX 1 (Mar)

[top][end]

Consumer Confidence ALLX 2 (Mar)

[top][end]


NAPM Milwaukee (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual 30.0
Prior 29.0
Revised n/a


[top]

2009-02-24 USER


[Skip to the end]


ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Feb 24)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.60%
Prior 0.90%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Feb 24)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.80%
Prior -0.90%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Feb 24)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.50%
Prior -1.40%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

Redbook Store Sales MoM (Feb 24)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.90%
Prior 0.90%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Feb 24)

[top][end]


S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual 150.66
Prior 154.59
Revised 154.55

[top][end]

S&P CS Composite 20 YoY (Dec)

Survey -18.30%
Actual -18.55%
Prior -18.18%
Revised -18.20%

[top][end]

S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index (4Q)

Survey n/a
Actual 139.14
Prior 150.04
Revised 150.00

[top][end]

S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index YoY (4Q)

Survey -17.20%
Actual -18.23%
Prior -16.60%
Revised -16.55%

[top][end]


Consumer Confidence (Feb)

Survey 35.0
Actual 25.0
Prior 37.7
Revised 37.4

[top][end]

Consumer Confidence ALLX 1 (Feb)

[top][end]

Consumer Confidence ALLX 2 (Feb)

[top][end]


House Price Index MoM (Dec)

Survey -1.7%
Actual 0.1%
Prior -1.8%
Revised -2.0%

[top][end]

House Price Index YoY (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual -8.7%
Prior -7.6%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

House Price Index ALLX (Dec)

[top][end]

House Price Purchase Index QoQ (4Q)

Survey -2.0%
Actual -3.4%
Prior -1.8%
Revised -2.0%

[top][end]


Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Feb)

Survey -49
Actual -51
Prior -49
Revised n/a

[top][end]

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index ALLX (Feb)


[top]

2009-01-27 USER


[Skip to the end]


ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Jan 27)

Survey n/a
Actual -2.40%
Prior -1.80%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Jan 27)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.80%
Prior 1.10%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Jan 27)

Survey n/a
Actual -2.30%
Prior -2.30%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

Redbook Store Sales MoM (Jan 27)

Survey n/a
Actual -2.60%
Prior -2.50%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Jan 27)

[top][end]


S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual 154.59
Prior 158.16
Revised 158.12

[top][end]

S&P CS Composite 20 YoY (Nov)

Survey -18.40%
Actual -18.18%
Prior -18.04%
Revised -18.06%

[top][end]

S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual 150.04
Prior 155.45
Revised n/a

[top][end]

S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index YoY (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual -16.55%
Prior -15.40%
Revised n/a

[top][end]


Consumer Confidence (Jan)

Survey 39.0
Actual 37.7
Prior 38.0
Revised 38.6

[top][end]

Consumer Confidence ALLX 1 (Jan)

[top][end]

Consumer Confidence ALLX 2 (Jan)

[top][end]


Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan)

Survey -50
Actual -49
Prior -55
Revised n/a

[top][end]

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index ALLX (Jan)


[top]

2008-12-30 USER


[Skip to the end]


ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (-)

Survey
Actual
Prior
Revised

 
Sinking.

[top][end]

ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (-)

Survey
Actual
Prior
Revised

 
Falling back, even with low fuel prices.

[top][end]

Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (-)

Survey
Actual
Prior
Revised

 
Still way down.

[top][end]

Redbook Store Sales MoM (-)

Survey
Actual
Prior
Revised

 
Still negative.

[top][end]

ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (-)

[top][end]

S&P CS Composite 20 YoY (-)

Survey
Actual
Prior
Revised

[top][end]

S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index (-)

Survey
Actual
Prior
Revised

 
Still heading south as foreclosures continue to take their toll.

[top][end]

S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index (-)

Survey
Actual
Prior
Revised

[top][end]

S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index YoY (-)

Survey
Actual
Prior
Revised

[top][end]

Chicago Purchasing Manager (-)

Survey
Actual
Prior
Revised

 
Remains very low.

[top][end]

Consumer Confidence (-)

Survey
Actual
Prior
Revised

 
Not much to be confident about.

[top][end]

Consumer Confidence ALLX 1 (-)

[top][end]

Consumer Confidence ALLX 2 (-)


[top]

2008-11-25 USER


[Skip to the end]


 
Karim writes:

  • Overlooked with the Fed headlines, but likely to lead to further downward revisions to Q4/Q1 growth outlook.

ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Nov 25)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.80%
Prior -0.10%
Revised n/a

 
Looking very soft, even with low gasoline prices.

[top][end]

ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Nov 25)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.90%
Prior 0.30%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Nov 25)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.40%
Prior -0.90%
Revised n/a

 
Same.

[top][end]

Redbook Store Sales MoM (Nov 25)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.30%
Prior -1.10%
Revised n/a

 

Karim writes:

  • Johnson Redbook sales down 1.3% m/m thru 3rd week of November.
  • Another negative retail sales month sets up Q4 real GDP for at least -4%

[top][end]

ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Nov 25)

[top][end]


GDP QoQ Annualized (3Q P)

Survey -0.5%
Actual -0.5%
Prior -0.3%
Revised n/a

 
As expected and in line with the longer term down trend in real gdp growth

Good evidence of a continuing and increasing lack of aggregate demand.

[top][end]

GDP YoY Annualized Real (3Q P)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.7%
Prior 2.1%
Revised n/a

 
Mildly positive but the trend is still looking down.

[top][end]

GDP YoY Annualized Nominal (3Q P)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.4%
Prior 4.1%
Revised n/a

 
Barely positive.

[top][end]

GDP Price Index (3Q P)

Survey 4.2%
Actual 4.2%
Prior 4.2%
Revised n/a

 
High but expected to fall with falling commodity prices.

[top][end]

Core PCE QoQ (3Q P)

Survey 2.9%
Actual 2.6%
Prior 2.9%
Revised n/a

 
Looks to be in a long term uptrend, though also expected to fall with commodity prices.

[top][end]

GDP ALLX 1 (3Q P)

[top][end]

GDP ALLX 2 (3Q P)

[top][end]


S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index (Sep)

Survey 163.00
Actual 161.56
Prior 164.57
Revised 164.40

 
Took a turn for the worse.

Karim writes:

  • Case Shiller down 1.85% q/q and -17.4% y/y

[top][end]

S&P CS Composite 20 YoY (Sep)

Survey -16.90%
Actual -17.40%
Prior -16.62%
Revised -16.60%

[top][end]

S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index (3Q)

Survey n/a
Actual 150.04
Prior 155.32
Revised 155.45

[top][end]

S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index YoY (3Q)

Survey -17.05%
Actual -16.55%
Prior -15.40%
Revised -15.07%

[top][end]


Consumer Confidence (Nov)

Survey 38.0
Actual 44.9
Prior 38.0
Revised 38.8

 
Tiny blip up- well above expectations.

[top][end]

Consumer Confidence ALLX 1 (Nov)

[top][end]

Consumer Confidence ALLX 2 (Nov)

[top][end]


Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov)

Survey -27
Actual -38
Prior -26
Revised n/a

 
Far worse than expected, more in line with Q4 GDP forecasts of -4%.

[top][end]

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index ALLX (Nov)

[top][end]


House Price Index MoM (Sep)

Survey -0.7%
Actual -1.3%
Prior -0.6%
Revised -0.8%

 
Also falling like a rock.

[top][end]

House Price Index YoY (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual -7.0%
Prior -6.1%
Revised n/a

 
No sign of turning around yet.

[top][end]

House Price Index ALLX (Sep)

[top][end]

House Price Purchase Index QoQ (3Q)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.8%
Prior -1.4%
Revised n/a

 
The decline has resumed.


[top]

2008-10-28 USER


[Skip to the end]


ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Oct 28)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.30%
Prior 0.90%
Revised n/a

 
Maybe rebounding some with lower gas prices?

[top][end]

ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Oct. 28)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.50%
Prior -1.60%
Revised n/a

[top][end]


Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Oct. 28)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.70%
Prior 0.80%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

Redbook Store Sales MoM (Oct. 28)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.10%
Prior -1.10%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Oct. 28)

[top][end]


S&P CS Composite 20 YoY (Aug)

Survey -16.60%
Actual -16.62%
Prior -16.35%
Revised -16.32%

[top][end]

S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 164.57
Prior 166.23
Revised 166.29

 
Still falling but at a slower rate

[top][end]

S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual -15.38%
Prior -14.22%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

Case Shiller ALLX 1 (Aug)

[top][end]

Case Shiller ALLX 2 (Aug)

[top][end]


Consumer Confidence (Oct)

Survey 52.0
Actual 38.0
Prior 59.8
Revised 61.4

 
Major dip here.

[top][end]

Consumer Confidence ALLX 1 (Oct)

[top][end]

Consumer Confidence ALLX 2 (Oct)

[top][end]


Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct)

Survey -23
Actual -26
Prior -18
Revised n/a

 
Also bad.

[top][end]

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index ALLX (Oct)


[top]

2008-09-30 USER


[Skip to the end]


ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Sep 30)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.10%
Prior 1.30%
Revised n/a

 
Still positive but weak.

[top][end]

ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Sep 30)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.20%
Prior -1.00%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Sep 30)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.00%
Prior 1.20%
Revised n/a

 
Still positive but weak.

[top][end]

Redbook Store Sales MoM (Sep 30)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.30%
Prior -1.20%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Sep 30)

[top][end]


S&P CS Composite 20 YoY (Jul)

Survey -16.00%
Actual -16.35%
Prior -15.92%
Revised -15.91%

 
Down year over year, but the rate of decline has slowed.

[top][end]

S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index (Jul)

Survey 166.90
Actual 166.23
Prior 167.69
Revised 167.71

 
Decelerating rate of decline.

[top][end]

S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index MoM (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.88%
Prior -0.52%
Revised n/a

 
From this angle it looks like the declines have moderated and could soon be over as inventories shrink and incomes continue higher.

[top][end]

Case Shiller ALLX 1 (Jul)

[top][end]

Case Shiller ALLX 2 (Jul)

[top][end]


Chicago Purchasing Manager (Sep)

Survey 53.0
Actual 56.7
Prior 57.9
Revised n/a

 
Better than expected and remaining above 50. Employment moved up to 49.

[top][end]

Chicago Purchasing Manager TABLE 1 (Sep)

 
Employment gapped up to 49?

[top][end]

Chicago Purchasing Manager TABLE 2 (Sep)

[top][end]


NAPM-Milwaukee (Sep)

Survey 44.0
Actual 46.0
Prior 43.0
Revised n/a

 
Better than expected and working its way out of the hole.

[top][end]


Consumer Confidence (Sep)

Survey 55.0
Actual 59.8
Prior 56.9
Revised 58.5

 
Even this is moving up some though from very low levels, and as of September 23.

[top][end]

Consumer Confidence ALLX 1 (Sep)

[top][end]

Consumer Confidence ALLX 2 (Sep)


[top]