2009-03-11 USER


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MBA Mortgage Applications (Mar 6)

Survey n/a
Actual 11.3%
Prior -12.6%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Mar 6)

Survey n/a
Actual 253.30
Prior 236.40
Revised n/a

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Mar 6)

Survey n/a
Actual 3470.70
Prior 3063.40
Revised n/a

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Bloomberg Global Confidence (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual 5.95
Prior 8.49
Revised n/a


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2009-02-11 USER


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MBA Mortgage Applications (Feb 6)

Survey n/a
Actual -24.5%
Prior 8.6%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Feb 6)

Survey n/a
Actual 235.90
Prior 261.40
Revised n/a

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Feb 6)

Survey n/a
Actual 2722.70
Prior 3906.30
Revised n/a

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Bloomberg Global Confidence (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual 8.49
Prior 8.72
Revised n/a

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Trade Balance (Dec)

Survey -$35.7B
Actual -$39.9B
Prior -$40.4B
Revised -$41.6B

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Exports MoM (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual -6.0%
Prior -6.0%
Revised n/a

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Imports MoM (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual -5.5%
Prior -11.9%
Revised n/a

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Exports YoY (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual -8.4%
Prior -2.0%
Revised n/a

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Imports YoY (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual -14.7%
Prior -10.3%
Revised n/a

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Trade Balance ALLX (Dec)


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2008-08-13 US Economic Releases


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MBA Mortgage Applications (Aug 8)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.5%
Prior 2.8%
Revised n/a

Muddling through on the low side as mortgage bankers lose market share to banks.

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MBA Purchasing Index (Aug 8)

Survey n/a
Actual 315.2
Prior 315.2
Revised n/a

Flat at low levels.

May do better as the seasonal adjustments get easier.

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MBA Refinancing Index (Aug 8)

Survey n/a
Actual 1074.6
Prior 1121.8
Revised n/a

Slowing, as bulk of resets are past and rates are doing nothing.

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MBA ALLX 1 (Aug 8)

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MBA ALLX 2 (Aug 8)

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Bloomberg Global Confidence (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 14.10
Prior 10.30
Revised n/a

Low, but improving.

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Import Price Index MoM (Jul)

Survey 1.0%
Actual 1.7%
Prior 2.6%
Revised 2.9%

Scary stuff if you are responsible for the value of the currency.

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Import Price Index YoY (Jul)

Survey 20.4%
Actual 21.6%
Prior 20.5%
Revised 21.1%

‘Inflation’ flooding in through the open window.

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Import Price Index ALLX 1 (Jul)

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Import Price Index ALLX 2 (Jul)

Karim writes:

Import prices continue uptrend

  • Headline +1.7% m/m; ex-petroleum up 0.9% m/m

Yes and ex petro 8% year over year and still rising. And this takes time to pass through to core CPI.

  • Expect headline to be below core for the next few mths though

Yes, if gasoline stays down.

But rental vacancies took a small turn down, and owner equivalent rent already printed a 0.3%, and seems with starts so far down there has to be a shortage of actual units available to live in. Also, lots of catching up to do in other core measures, like medical and others which had some prints on the low side.

All of their costs are rising and push up prices with various lags.

And Russia has demonstrated they can do whatever they want and there’s nothing anyone can do about it.

Not good…

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Advance Retail Sales MoM (Jul)

Survey -0.1%
Actual -0.1%
Prior 0.1%
Revised 0.3%

Down some as expected due to weak car sales, but prior month revised up.

Sometimes if people don’t buy cars they buy other things…

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Advance Retail Sales YoY (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.6%
Prior 3.4%
Revised n/a

Still looks to be moving off a bottom.

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Retail Sales Less Autos MoM (Jul)

Survey 0.5%
Actual 0.4%
Prior 0.8%
Revised 0.9%

Looks okay, a tenth below expectations but prior month revised up the same tenth.

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Retail Sales Less Autos YoY (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual 6.0%
Prior 6.4%
Revised n/a

Looking reasonably firm.

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Advance Retail Sales ALLX (Jul)

On Wed, Aug 13, 2008 at 8:54 AM, Karim writes:

Retail sales generally weak but in line with expectations

  • Headline -0.1% m/m; ex-gas -0.2% m/m; ex-autos +0.4%; control group +0.3%
  • Rebate checks did trickle in through July so some help from there
  • Looks like real PCE off to flat start in Q3, perhaps explaining Fisher’s remark yesterday that ‘we will broach zero growth’ in the second half of the year

The FOMC now has a multi year history of underestimating GDP and inflation.

Seems with Q2 GDP now looking like 3% or more, and the first half therefore averaging maybe over 2%, and year over year gdp still pushing 3%, they would either adjust or downgrade their GDP forecasting model.

Same with their inflation forecasting model, as cpi moves through 5% and core elevates from levels not long ago forecast at not a lot more than half that.

Looking more and more like the real economy did bottom in Q4 2007, as private forecasters are now starting to project positive gdp for Q3 and Q4, and some for Q1 2009 as well.

And even if the saudis keep crude at current levels core cpi should continue to march higher for many more quarters as it all catches up to the shift from $20 crude to $100+ crude.

Yes, the financial sector continues to have issues, may severe, but blood is flowing around the clot as the real economy moves forward.

Housing starts peaked in the early 1970s at 2.6 million with only 215 million people and no secondary market or housing agencies- just a bunch of dumb s and l’s taking in deposits and making mortgages (is used to work at one back then).

Today with 50% more people we call 2 million units gangbusters.

The financial innovation is all predatory at the macro level, though at the micro level we’d grown dependent on it for sure.

Yes, US exports are reducing foreign GDP growth, but their are signs they are moving to support domestic demand with fiscal measures, including Japan, the UK, and even some talk from the eurozone, and even china announced lower inflation numbers to justify supporting growth.

And Saudi crude output shows no sign of world net supply going up. Current price action just some kind of massive ‘inventory adjustment’.

Yes, that can change but hasn’t yet.

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Business Inventories MoM (Jun)

Survey 0.5%
Actual 0.7%
Prior 0.3%
Revised 0.4%

3% Q2 GDP means more inventory is needed.

Also, this and previous inventory data for June higher than expected which means Q2 might be revised up that much more as very low inventory levels were estimated with the initial 1.9% release for Q2 GDP.

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Business Inventories YoY (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual 5.6%
Prior 5.3%
Revised n/a

Not the usual recession pattern.

The real sector seems well managed.

The financial sector is another story. They don’t count mbs inventory, for example, in this series…

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Business Inventories TABLE 1 (Jun)

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Business Inventories TABLE 2 (Jun)


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2008-06-11 US Economic Releases


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2008-06-11 MBAVPRCH Index

MBAVPRCH Index (Jun 6)

Survey n/a
Actual 376.2
Prior 333.6
Revised n/a

Moved up off the ‘bottom’ of the ‘new range’ and moving the same direction as pending home sales that surprised on the upside.

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2008-06-11 MBAVREFI Index

MBAVREFI Index (Jun 6)

Survey n/a
Actual 1622.1
Prior 1496.1
Revised n/a

Muddling through. Most of the resets have are now history.

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2008-06-11 Bloomberg Global Confidence

Bloomberg Global Confidence

Survey n/a
Actual 21.01
Prior 22.73
Revised n/a

Global inflation cutting into consumer buying plans.

In some ways this conflicts with expectations theory that theorizes that consumers will accelerate purchases if they expect higher prices.

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2008-06-11 Monthly Budget Statement

Monthly Budget Statement (May)

Survey -$164.5B
Actual -$165.9B
Prior -$67.7B
Revised n/a

[comments]

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2008-06-11 Federal Debt Percent GDP

Federal Debt Percent GDP


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2008-05-14 US Economic Releases


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2008-05-14 MBAVPRCH Index

MBAVPRCH (May 9)

Survey n/a
Actual 378.5
Prior 381.3
Revised n/a

Not bad. Still supports the notion that housing bottomed in Q4.

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2008-05-14 MBAVREFI Index

MBAVREFI Index (May 9)

Survey n/a
Actual 2422.1
Prior 2273.8
Revised n/a

Refi market alive and well.

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2008-05-14 Bloomberg Global Confidence

Bloomberg Global Confidence (May)

Survey n/a
Actual 22.73
Prior 14.54
Revised n/a

Speaks for itself.

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2008-05-14 Consumer Price Index MoM

Consumer Price Index MoM (Apr)

Survey 0.3%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.3%
Revised n/a

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2008-05-14 CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM

CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (Apr)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.1%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

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2008-05-14 Consumer Price Index YoY

Consumer Price Index YoY (Apr)

Survey 4.0%
Actual 3.9%
Prior 4.0%
Revised n/a

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2008-05-14 CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY

CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY (Apr)

Survey 2.4%
Actual 2.3%
Prior 2.4%
Revised n/a

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2008-05-14 CPI Core Index SA

CPI Core Index SA (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual 214.398
Prior 214.176
Revised n/a

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2008-05-14 Consumer Price Index NSA

Consumer Price Index NSA (Apr)

Survey 214.715
Actual 214.823
Prior 214.528
Revised n/a

It’s all being said on CNBC – seasonals that subtract this month add later in the year.


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2008-04-16 US Economic Releases

  • MBA Mortgage Applications
  • Bloomberg Global Confidence
  • Consumer Price Index
  • Housing Starts
  • Building Permits
  • Industrial Production
  • Capacity Utilization

2008-04-16 MBAVPRCH Index

MBAVPRCH Index (Apr 11)

Survey n/a
Actual 381.6
Prior 384.7
Revised n/a

Holding in its new, lower range.


2008-04-16 MBAVREFI Index

MBAVREFI Index (Apr 11)

Survey n/a
Actual 2866.0
Prior 2724.7
Revised n/a

Doing ok in this prime time for resets, which are peaking and then falling off.


2008-04-16 Bloomberg Global Confidence

Bloomberg Global Confidence (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual 14.54
Prior 13.08
Revised n/a

Still down, but signs of a bottom.


In my humble opinion, inflation is ripping, and the Fed’s in a very bad place. April’s food and energy price hikes, along with hosts of others, and the weaker USD all are pointing to an upward surge for prices on a forward looking basis.The Fed’s forecasting models should be showing higher inflation as well.And futures markets continue to be an unreliable forecasting tool for the Fed.

2008-04-16 Consumer Price Index MoM

Consumer Price Index MoM (Mar)

Survey 0.3%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.0%
Revised n/a

2008-04-16 CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM

CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (Mar)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.0%
Revised n/a

2008-04-16 Consumer Price Index YoY

Consumer Price Index YoY (Mar)

Survey 4.0%
Actual 4.0%
Prior 4.0%
Revised n/a

2008-04-16 CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY

CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY (Mar)

Survey 2.4%
Actual 2.4%
Prior 2.3%
Revised n/a

From Karim:

Headline/Core divergence->limited passthrough

  • Headline 0.343% and stays at 4% y/y

  • Core rises 0.152% (after 0.04% last month), showing limited pass-through from headline and even more limited pass-through from wholesale level (PPI from yday).

  • Core rises from 2.3% to 2.4%, equates to about 1.9-2.0% on core PCE basis due to measurement differences

  • Food up 0.2% and gas up 1.3%

  • OER up 0.2%, apparel down 1.3%, vehicles down 0.1%

  • Lodging away from home down 0.6% and medical up only 0.1%, a bit below trend

Housing starts not looking good. The glimmer of hope is that prior months have been revised up for the last two reports, so there’s a chance this number could be revised substantially as well.

2008-04-16 Housing Starts

Housing Starts (Mar)

Survey 1010K
Actual 947K
Prior 1065K
Revised 1075K

2008-04-16 Building Permits

Building Permits (Mar)

Survey 970K
Actual 927K
Prior 978K
Revised 984K

From Karim:

Housing data shows drag continuing with at least the same intensity

  • Starts down 11.9%, boding poorly for current GDP

  • Permits down 5.8%, boding poorly for future GDP

  • Best news is not adding to inventories

2008-04-16 Industrial Production

Industrial Production (Mar)

Survey -0.1%
Actual 0.3%
Prior -0.5%
Revised -0.7%

May be due to exports, which are keeping GDP and employment muddling through


2008-04-16 Capacity Utilization

Capacity Utilization (Mar)

Survey 80.3%
Actual 80.5%
Prior 80.9%
Revised 80.3%

Staying too high for the typical recession.

2008-03-12 US Economic Releases

2008-03-12 MBAVPRCH Index

MBAVPRCH Index

Survey n/a
Actual 368.8
Prior 363.1
Revised n/a

May be coming back after a winter weather lull.


2008-03-12 MBAVPRCH Index

MBAVREFI Index

Survey n/a
Actual 2448.2
Prior 2569.0
Revised n/a

Not all that much refinancing activity.


2008-03-12 Bloomberg Global Confidence

Bloomberg Global Confidence (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual 13.08
Prior 14.34
Revised n/a

The whole world is watching CNBC.