Bernanke

Fed/Bernanke probably concerned about core CPI going so high and making ‘popular’ headlines and is worried about cutting 50 into the triple negative supply shock of food/fuel/import-export prices.

And with today’s claims number showing, there may not be as much slack in the labor markets as the last unemployment number indicated. The fed has been counting on slack in the labor markets to keep wage demands in check and not transmitting headline inflation to core inflation via higher wages.

And now that core has in fact started to move, he’s pushing for a fiscal package (which goes against the mainstream grain/fiscal responsibility, etc.) as an alternative to future rate cuts which carry, in mainstream theory, an inflation price.

He would very much like the planned January 30 cut to be the last one needed. He doesn’t want to be the next Miller or the next Volcker.


Trade numbers

U.S. Trade Deficit Hits 14-Month High on Oil Imports

by Reed Saxon

The U.S. trade deficit in November surged to the highest level in 14 months, reflecting record imports of foreign oil. The deficit with China declined slightly while the weak dollar boosted exports to another record high.

The Commerce Department reported that the trade deficit, the gap between imports and exports, jumped by 9.3 percent, to $63.1 billion. The imbalance was much larger than the $60 billion that had been expected.


The increase was driven by a 16.3 percent surge in America’s foreign oil bill, which climbed to an all-time high of $34.4 billion as the per barrel price of imported crude reached new records. With oil prices last week touching $100 per barrel, analysts are forecasting higher oil bills in future months.

The big surge in oil pushed total imports of goods and services up by 3 percent to a record $205.4 billion. Exports also set another record, rising by a smaller 0.4 percent to $142.3 billion. Export demand has been growing significantly over the past two years as U.S. manufacturers and farmers have gotten a boost from a weaker dollar against many other currencies. That makes U.S. goods cheaper on overseas markets.

Exports still moving up.

Through the first 11 months of 2007, the deficit is running at an annual rate of $709.1 billion, down 6.5 percent from last year’s all-time high of $758.5 billion. Analysts believe that the export boom will finally result in a drop in the trade deficit in 2007 after it set consecutive records for five years.

Agreed. Ultimately, the only way the foreign sector can slow their accumulation of $US, as the falling $ indicates they are in the process of doing, is to spend it here.

The growth in exports has been a major factor cushioning the blow to the economy from the slump in housing and a severe credit crunch. However, with oil pushing imports up sharply, analysts believe the help from trade in the final three months of last year will be shown to have been significantly smaller.

Could be. December numbers will not be out for another month.

By country, the deficit with Canada, America’s largest trading partner, dropped by 12.1 percent to $4.7 billion in November while the imbalance with Mexico rose by 1.4 percent to $7.6 billion. The imbalance with the European Union fell by 12.6 percent to $10.4 billion.

Might explain some weakness in Canada and Eurozone.


Re: Bernanke

(email)

On 11 Jan 2008 11:17:34 +0000, Prof. P. Arestis wrote:
>   Dear Warren,
>
>   Many thanks. Some good comments below.
>
>   The paragraph that I think is of some importance is this:
>
> >  The Committee will, of course, be carefully evaluating incoming
> >  information bearing on the economic outlook. Based on that evaluation,
> >  and consistent with our dual mandate, we stand ready to take
> >  substantive additional action as needed to support growth and to
> >  provide adequate insurance against downside risks.
>
>   If I am not wrong this is the first time for Bernanke that the word
>   inflation does not appear explicitly in his relevant statement. But also
>   there is no mention of anything relevant that might capture their motto
>   that winning the battle against inflation is both necessary and sufficient
>   for their dual mandate.
>
>   Are the economic beliefs of BB changing, I wonder? I rather doubt it but
>   see what you think.

Dear Philip,

I see this is all part of the Bernanke conumdrum.

Implied is that their forecasts call for falling inflation and well anchored expectations, which can only mean continued modest wage increases.

They believe inflation expectations operate through two channels-accelerated purchases and wage demands.

Their forecasts use futures prices of non perishable commodities including food and energy. They don’t seem to realize the
‘backwardation’ term structure of futures prices (spot prices higher than forward prices) is how futures markets express shortages.

Instead, the Fed models use the futures prices as forecasts of where prices will be in the future.

So a term structure for the primary components of CPI that is screaming ‘shortage’ is being read for purposes of monetary policy as a deflation forecast.

Bernanke also fears convertible currency/fixed fx implosions which are far more severe than non convertible currency/floating fx slumps. Even in Japan, for example, there was never a credit supply side constraint – credit worthy borrowers were always able to borrow (and at very low rates) in spite of a near total systemic bank failure. And the payments system continued to function. Contrast that with the collapse in Argentina, Russia, Mexico, and the US in the 30’s which were under fixed fx and gold standard regimes.

It’s like someone with a diesel engine worrying about the fuel blowing up. It can’t. Gasoline explodes, diesel doesn’t. But someone who’s studied automobile explosions when fuel tanks ruptured in collisions, and doesn’t understand the fundamental difference, might be unduly worried about an explosion with his diesel car.

More losses today, but none that directly diminish aggregate demand or alter the supply side availability of credit.

And while the world does seem to be slowing down some, as expected, the call on Saudi oil continues at about 9 million bpd,
so the twin themes of moderating demand and rising food/fuel/import prices remains.

I also expect core CPI to continue to slowly rise for an extended period of time even if food/fuel prices stay at current levels as
these are passed through via the cost structure with a lag.

All the best,

Warren

>
>  Best wishes,
>
>  Philip

Comments on Bernanke speech

Although economic growth slowed in the fourth quarter of last year from the third quarter’s rapid clip, it seems nonetheless, as best we can tell, to have continued at a moderate pace.

Q4 GDP seen as ‘moderate’ – that is substantially better than initial expectations of several weeks ago.

Recently, however, incoming information has suggested that the baseline outlook for real activity in 2008 has worsened and the downside risks to growth have become more pronounced.

They initially said this for Q3 and for Q4.

Notably, the demand for housing seems to have weakened further, in part reflecting the ongoing problems in mortgage markets.

Maybe, but even if so, housing is now a much smaller influence on GDP.

In addition, a number of factors, including higher oil prices,

Yes, this slows consumer spending on other items, but oil producers have that extra income to spend, and if they continue to do so, GDP will hold up and exports will remain strong.

lower equity prices, and softening home values, seem likely to weigh on consumer spending as we move into 2008.

The fed has little if any evidence those last two things alter consumer spending.

Financial conditions continue to pose a downside risk to the outlook for growth.

Market participants still express considerable uncertainty about the appropriate valuation of complex financial assets and about the extent of additional losses that may be disclosed in the future. On the whole, despite improvements in some areas, the financial situation remains fragile, and many funding markets remain impaired. Adverse economic or financial news has the potential to increase financial strains and to lead to further constraints on the supply of credit to households and businesses.

Yes, his main concern is on the supply side of credit. With a floating fx/non convertible currency, there is a very low probability. Even Japan with all its financial sector problems was never credit constrained.

Debilitating credit supply constraints are byproducts of convertible currency/fixed fx regimes gone bad, like in the US in the 1930s, Mexico in 1994, Russia in 1998, and Argentina in 2001.

I expect that financial-market participants–and, of course, the Committee–will be paying particular attention to developments in the housing market, in part because of the potential for spillovers from housing to other sectors of the economy.

A second consequential risk to the growth outlook concerns the performance of the labor market. Last week’s report on labor-market conditions in December was disappointing, as it showed an increase of 0.3 percentage point in the unemployment rate and a decline in private payroll employment. Heretofore, the labor market has been a source of stability in the macroeconomic situation, with relatively steady gains in wage and salary income providing households the wherewithal to support moderate growth in real consumption spending. It would be a mistake to read too much into any one report.

Right, best to wait for the revisions. November was revised to a decent up number, and October was OK as well. And today’s claims numbers indicate not much changed in December.

However, should the labor market deteriorate, the risks to consumer spending would rise.

Yes, if..

Even as the outlook for real activity has weakened,

Yes, the outlook has always been weakening over the last six months, while the actual numbers subsequently come in better than expected. Seems outlooks are not proving reliable.

there have been some important developments on the inflation front. Most notably, the same increase in oil prices that may be a negative influence on growth is also lifting overall consumer prices and probably putting some upward pressure on core inflation measures as well.

Interesting that he mentions upward pressure on core – must be in their forecast. It took them a long time to get core to moderate, and even in August they did not cut as upward risks remained.

Last year, food prices also increased exceptionally rapidly by recent standards, further boosting overall consumer price inflation. Thus far, inflation expectations appear to have remained reasonably well anchored,

They have very little information on this. They only know when they become unglued, and then it is too late.

and pressures on resource utilization have diminished a bit. However, any tendency of inflation expectations to become unmoored or for the Fed’s inflation-fighting credibility to be eroded could greatly complicate the task of sustaining price stability and reduce the central bank’s policy flexibility to counter shortfalls in growth in the future.

Meaning once they go, it is too late.

Accordingly, in the months ahead we will be closely monitoring the inflation situation, particularly as regards inflation expectations.

The fed has no credibility here. Markets ignore this, and the financial press does not even report it.

Monetary policy has responded proactively to evolving conditions. As you know, the Committee cut its target for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its September meeting and by 25 basis points each at the October and December meetings. In total, therefore, we have brought the funds rate down by a percentage point from its level just before financial strains emerged. The Federal Reserve took these actions to help offset the restraint imposed by the tightening of credit conditions and the weakening of the housing market. However, in light of recent changes in the outlook for and the risks to growth, additional policy easing may well be necessary.

Reads a bit defensive to me.

The Committee will, of course, be carefully evaluating incoming information bearing on the economic outlook. Based on that evaluation, and consistent with our dual mandate, we stand ready to take substantive additional action as needed to support growth and to provide adequate insurance against downside risks.

Financial and economic conditions can change quickly. Consequently, the Committee must remain exceptionally alert and flexible, prepared to act in a decisive and timely manner and, in particular, to counter any adverse dynamics that might threaten economic or financial stability.

This was to come out at 1PM, instead it was released at noon.

This seems they meant to send a signal that they are ready to go 50.

It may take another 0.3% core CPI number, low claims numbers, and further tightening of the FF/LIBOR spread to get them to think twice about not cutting.

Their fixed fx paradigm supply side fears elevates their perception of the downside risks.


♥

Re: fiscal response

On 04 Jan 2008 22:29:03 +0000, Prof. P. Arestis wrote:
> Dear Warren,
>
> Many thanks.
>
> This is all interesting. The sentence that caught my eye is this: “A fiscal

> package is being discussed to day by Bernanke, Paulson, and Bush. That

> would also reduce the odds of a Fed cut”. This would indeed reduce the odds
> of a rate cut. But would Bernanke accept such a proposition when he
> believes passionately that crowding-out in fiscl policy is very much the
> order of the fiscal day? I am curious to see the result of this discussion.

Dear Philip,

Very good point!

Warren

>
> Best wishes,
>
> Philip
>


♥

A tale of mixed metaphors

Ben Bernanke will save the world, but first we bleed

Posted by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard on 14 Dec 2007 at 12:48

The Bernanke ‘Put’ has expired.

Are Bernanke’s academic doctrines blurring his vision?

The Fed cuts a quarter point, and what happens? Wall Street’s ungrateful wretches knock 294 off the Dow 294 in an hour and half; the home builders index dives 10pc; Japanese bond surge; Euribor spreads rise to an all-time high of 99 basis points.

Have the markets begun to digest the awful possibility that central banks cannot cut rates fast enough to prevent a profits crunch because they are caught between the Scylla of the credit crunch and the Charybdis of inflation, a new deviant form of stagflation?

Nor is there any evidence or credible theory that interest rate cuts would help. For example, fed economists say that 1% rates didn’t do much – it was the fiscal impulse of 03 that added aggregate demand and turned the economy.

US headline CPI is stuck at around 3.5pc to 4pc, German CPI is 3pc (and wholesale inflation 5.7pc), China is 6.9pc, and Russia is skidding out of control at 10pc.

Note ‘out of control’. Mainstream theory says inflation will accelerate once it gets going.

As for the Fed, it now has to fret about the dollar – Banquo’s ghost at every FOMC meeting these days. A little beggar-thy-neighbour devaluation is welcome in Washington: a disorderly rout is another matter. No Fed chairman can sit idly by if half Asia and the Mid-East break their dollar pegs, threatening to end a century of US dollar primacy.

They are more worried about ‘imported inflation’ than ‘primacy’.

Yes, inflation is a snapshot of the past, not the future. It lags the cycle. After the dotcom bust, US prices kept rising for ten months. Alan Greenspan blithely ignored it as background noise, though regional Fed hawks put up a fight.

He had a deflationary global context, as he said publicly and in his book. That has changed, and now import prices are instead rising substantially.

Ben Bernanke has not yet acquired the Maestro’s licence to dispense with the Fed staff model when it suits him.

As above, different global context.

In any case, his academic doctrines may now be blurring his vision.

Not sure why they are, but all evidence is they are based on fixed exchange rate/gold standard theory.

So, in case you thought that every little sell-off on Wall Street was a God-given chance to load up further on equities, let me pass on a few words of caution from the High Priests of finance.

A deluge of pre-Christmas predictions have been flooding into my E-mail box, some accompanied by lavish City lunches. The broad chorus-by now well known – is that the US will hit a brick wall in 2008.

Yes, originally scheduled for 07. Not saying we won’t, but I am saying those forecasting it hae a poor record and suspect models.

Less understood is that Europe, Asia, and emerging markets will also flounder to varying degrees, knocking away yet another prop for US equities – held aloft until now by non-US global earnings.

Yes, that is a risk.

Morgan Stanley has just added a “mild recession” alert for Japan (Buckle Up) on top of its “manufacturing recession risk” for the eurozone. It’s US call (`Recession Coming’), it is no longer hedged about with many ifs or buts. Americans face a “perfect storm” and CAPEX is buckling. Demand will shrink by 1pc a quarter for nine months.

The bank has cut its target MSCI emerging market equities by 6pc next year. I suspect that this will be cut a lot further as the plot thickens, but you have to start somewhere.

They have been bearish all year.

Merrill Lynch has much the same overall view. “The US consumer is on the precipice of its first recessionary phase since 1991. The earnings recession has already arrived.”

Maybe, but no evidence yet. Employment remains sufficient for the consumer to muddle through, and exports are picking up the slack.

“Real estate deflations are unique and have never ended well for the consumer, the credit market, or the economy. Maybe it will be different this time, but we fail to see why.”

The subtraction to aggregate demand due to real estate is maybe a year behind us and rising exports have filled the gap.

And this from a Goldman Sachs note entitled “Quantifying the Stock Market Impact of a Possible Recession.”

“Our team believes that there is about a 40pc to 45pc chance that the US will enter recession over the next six months. If a recession does occur, it has the potential to feed on itself,” said bank’s global markets strategist Peter Berezin.

Goldman just upped their Q4 GDP foregast by 1.5%, and it’s now at 1.8%.

“We expect home prices to decline 7% in 2007 and a further 7% in 2008. But if the US does fall into a recession, home prices could decline by as much 30% nationwide, which would make it the worst housing bust since at least the Great Depression.

“If global growth slows next year as we expect, cyclical stocks that so far have held up quite well may feel more pressure. It seems unlikely that the elevated earnings estimates for next year can be sustained,” he said.

Lots of ‘if’ and ‘we expect’ language, but no actual ‘channels’ to that end. No one seems to have any. Best I can determine if exports hold up, we muddle through.

Now, stocks can do well in a soft-landing (which Goldman Sachs still expects, on balance), since falling interest rates offset lost earnings. But if this does tip over into outright contraction, History is not kind.

Stocks are likely to adjust PE’s to higher interest rates now that expectations are moving toward lower odds of rate cutting due to inflation.

The average fall in S&P 500 over the last 9 recessions is 13pc from peak to trough. These include 1969 (18pc), 1981 (23pc) and 2001 (52pc).

Still up 5% for the year. And it has been an OK leading indicator as well for quite a while.

As for the canard that stocks are currently cheap at a projected P/E ratio of 15.3, this is based on an illusion. US profit margins are currently inflated by 250 basis points above their ten-year average.

Inflated? Seems a byproduct of productivity and related efficiencies. No telling how long that continues. And products changes so fast there is no time for ‘competitive forces’ to drive down prices to marginal revenue with many products; so, margins remain high.

While Goldman Sachs does not use the term, this is obviously a profits bubble. Super-cheap credit in early 2007 – the lowest spreads ever seen – flattered earnings.

Not sure it’s related to ‘cheap credit’ as much as productivity.

I would add too that free global capital flows have allowed corporations to engage in labour arbitrage, playing off cheap Asian wages against the US and European wages. This game is surely played out. Chinese wages are shooting up.

Yes, as above, and this is the global context Bernanke faces – import prices rising rather than falling.

Voters in industrial democracies will not allow capitalists to continue take an ever larger share of the pie. Hence Sarkozy, Hillary Clinton, and the Labour victory in Australia.

Not sure both sides are pro profits. That’s where the campaign funding is coming from and most voters are shareholders or otherwise profit directly and indirectly from corporate profits. Wage earners are a shrinking constituency with diminishing political influence.

Once you strip out this profits anomaly, Goldman Sachs says the P/E ratio is currently 26. This compares with a post-war average of 18, and a pre-recession average of 17.

As above. PE’s are more likely to adjust down near term due to valuation issues – rising interest rates and perception of risk.

“It is clear that if the US enters a recession, there is significant scope for both earnings and stock prices to decline beyond what the market has already priced. The average lag between peak and nadir in stock prices is only 4 months. This implies a swift correction in equity prices.”

Sure, but that’s a big ‘if’.

The spill-over would be a 20pc fall in the DAX (Frankfurt) and the CAC (Paris), 19pc fall on London’s FTSE 250, 13pc on the IBEX (Madrid), and 10pc on the MIB (Milan).

Doesn’t sound catastrophic.

Be advised, this is not a Goldman Sachs prediction: it is merely a warning, should the economy tip over.

Yes, but without a direct reason for a recession, nor a definition of a recession, for that matter.

Now, whatever happens to US, British, French, Spanish, Italian, and Greek house prices, and whatever happens to the Shanghai stock bubble or to Latin American bonds, the Fed and fellow central banks can – and ultimately will – come to the rescue with full-throttle reflation.

Wrong, the fed doesn’t have that button. Lower interest rates maybe, if they dare to do that with the current inflation risks of the triple supply shock of crude, food, and the lower $US.

But as shown with Japan, low rates do not add aggregate demand as assumed.

Merrill says the Fed may cut rates to 2pc. (rates were 1pc in 2003 and 2004). Let me go a step further. It would not surprise me if debt deflation in the Anglo-Saxon countries proves so serious that we reach Japanese extremes – perhaps zero rates, with a dollop of ‘quantitative easing’ for good measure.

Right, and with the same consequences – those moves have nothing to do with aggregate demand.

The Club Med states may need the same, but they will not get it because they no longer control their monetary policy. So Heaven help them and their democracies.

True, the systemic risk is in the Eurozone. Not sure he knows why.

The central banks are not magicians, of course. We forget now that Keynes and his allies in the early 1930s knew that monetary policy ‘a l’outrance’ could be used to flood the system by buying bonds. They concluded that such a policy might backfire – possibly causing panic – since investors were not ready for revolutionary methods.

Keynes was right but was talking in the context of the gold standard of the time. Not directly applicable today without ‘adjustments’ to current floating fx regimes.

This at least has changed. The markets expect a bail-out, demand it, and believe religiously in its benign effects.

Ben Bernanke said in his 2002 ‘helicopter’ speech that there was practically no limit to what sorts of assets the Fed could buy in order to inject money.

No limits, but big differences to aggregate demand. Buying securities has no effect on demand, while buying real goods and services has an immediate effect, also as Keynes and others have pointed out many times.

The bank’s current mandate does not allow it to buy equities, but that could be changed easily enough.

Yes. Won’t support demand, but will support equity prices.

So yes, in the end, the Fed can always stop a deflationary spiral.

Yes, but more precisely, the tsy, as they can buy goods and services without nominal limit and support demand at any level they desire. The ‘risks’ are ‘inflation’ not solvency. (See ‘Soft Currency Economics‘.)

As Bernanke said to Milton Freidman on his 90th birthday, the Fed will not repeat the monetary crunch it allowed to happen 1930-32.

That was in the context of the gold standard of the day. Not applicable currently.

“Regarding the Great Depression. You’re right, we did it. We’re very sorry. But thanks to you, we won’t do it again.”

Thanks to floating the $, it hasn’t happened since.

Bernanke is undoubtedly right. The Fed won’t do it again. But before the United States can embark on an economic course that radically transforms the nature of capitalism, speculative markets may have to take a beating – for appearances sake, at least.


♥

Manpower survey better than expected

Bernanke stated he was watching the labor markets closely, right up to the meeting, and the latest survey further confirms its holding up at least as well as expected, if not quite a bit better.

The headline and lead in, however, continue to indicate a reporting bias toward a slowdown:

U.S. Employers Trim First-Quarter Hiring Plans, Manpower Says

By Bob Willis

Dec. 11 (Bloomberg) — Employers in the U.S. trimmed hiring plans for the first quarter of 2008 as the economy cools, according to a private survey released today.

Manpower Inc., the world’s second-largest provider of temporary workers, said its employment index for January through March fell to 17, the lowest since the first three months of 2004, after holding at 18 for the three prior quarters.

The decline wasn’t large enough to signal employment would slump, suggesting the labor market is holding up enough to sustain consumer spending. Federal Reserve policy makers, who are forecast to lower interest rates later today, are counting on rising wages to help Americans weather the housing recession.

“We’ve kind of pointed down a little, but we didn’t fall off a cliff like we did in other downturns,” Jeffrey Joerres, chief executive officer of Milwaukee-based Manpower, said in an interview. “Companies may not be euphoric about hiring, but they are still hiring.”

Right, so why wasn’t the headline ‘survey doesn’t signal a slump’? The reporting bias has been as strong as I’ve ever seen it.

The survey was in line with the Labor Department’s monthly jobs report issued last week. Employers added a greater-than- forecast 94,000 workers to payrolls in November and the unemployment rate held at 4.7 percent. The economy has created an average 118,000 jobs a month so far this year, compared with 189,000 a month in 2006.

These are not rate cut numbers.

Manpower’s index slumped 8 points in the second quarter of 2001, at the start of the last recession.

Before adjusting for seasonal variations, 22 percent of the roughly 14,000 companies surveyed said they will boost payrolls in the first quarter, down from 27 percent in the previous three months.

Little Change

Twelve percent said they’d trim hiring in the coming quarter, and 60 percent anticipated no change, the survey showed.

The overall index subtracts the percentage of employers planning to cut jobs from those who plan to add workers and adjusts the results for seasonal variations.

The world’s largest economy will expand at a 1 percent annual pace this quarter, bringing 2007’s growth rate to 2.2 percent, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed this month by Bloomberg
News. It grew at a 4.9 percent annual pace in the third quarter and 2.9 percent for all of 2006.

That’s a two quarter average of 3%, as actual employment and output grew modestly and inventory in Q3 borrowed some GDP from Q4. And the fed knows that if recent history is any guide, there is a good chance net exports were higher than expected in Q4 and it could be revised up.

The Fed will probably lower its target lending rate by a quarter point to 4.25 percent later today, its third consecutive reduction, according to a separate Bloomberg survey.

That’s the consensus, and the fed may do it out of fear that if they do not accomodate what markets have priced in, the sky will fall.

Half Limit Hiring

Employers in five of 10 industries polled by Manpower planned to limit hiring next quarter compared with the previous three months. Manpower’s measure of hiring intentions was weakest for construction companies. The index for government agency hiring showed the biggest drop.

And the risks are to the upside, as construction is already near zero. There is no where to go but unchanged or up.

Hiring plans at all but one of the industries were lower than year-ago levels, the report showed. Manufacturers of long- lasting goods, such as computers and appliances, projected little change from the first quarter of 2007.

The hiring outlook is strongest at mining companies, followed by service industries and wholesalers.

Regionally, employers in the Northeast, South and West predict no change in hiring, while employers in the Midwest anticipate a slowdown in activity.

Globally, hiring plans in Peru, Singapore, India, Argentina, South Africa, Australia and Japan were among the strongest, while employers in Ireland reported the weakest hiring plans.

The Manpower survey is conducted quarterly and has a margin of error of plus or minus 0.8 percentage point in the U.S. and no more than plus or minus 3.9 percentage points for national, regional and global
data.

To contact the reporter on this story:Bob Willis in Washington
bwillis@bloomberg.net .


♥

Where the fed is vulnerable to the press

While Fed gov Fisher was correct in stating the Fed isn’t held hostage to market pricing of fed funds when it makes its decision, the Fed is vulnerable to manipulation when it comes to inflation expectations.

Under mainstream theory, the ultimate cause of inflation is entirely attributed to the elevation of inflation expectations. The theory explains that price increases remain ‘relative value stories’ until inflation expectations elevate and turn the relative value story into an inflation story.

So far the Fed sees the price increases of recent years as relative value stories, as headline CPI has not been seen to leak into core. However, with capacity utilization high and unemployment low, the risk of inflation expectations elevating is heightened.

The Fed also knows that if the financial press starts harping on how high inflation is going, starts to intensely question Fed credibility, and calls the Fed soft on inflation, etc. etc. this process per se is capable of raising inflation expectations and potentially triggering accelerating inflation.

Therefore, I anticipate extended discussion at the meeting regarding ‘managing inflation expectations.’

And if they do cut the ff rate it will mean they continue to blinded by ‘market functioning’ risk and not willing to take the risk of not meeting market expectations of the cut.

Note the rhetoric of the financial press continues to turn in front of the meeting. First strong economy stories, then inflation stories, note this:

Bernanke May Risk `Fool in the Shower’ Label to Avert Recession

 

By Rich Miller

 

Dec. 10 (Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke may have to risk becoming the proverbial “fool in the shower” to keep the U.S. economy out of recession.

 

Renewed turbulence in financial markets puts Bernanke, 53, under pressure to open the monetary spigots wider to pump up the economy. Traders in federal funds futures are betting it’s a certainty the Fed will cut its benchmark interest rate from 4.5 percent tomorrow, and they see a better-than-even chance the rate will be 3.75 percent or below by April.

 

“The Fed has to assure the markets that it’s ready to ride to the rescue and cut rates by as much as necessary,” says Lyle Gramley, a former Fed governor who’s now a senior economic adviser in Washington for the Stanford Group Co., a wealth- management firm.

 

The danger of such a strategy is that Bernanke may become like the bather, in an analogy attributed to the late Nobel- Prize-winning economist Milton Friedman, who gets scalded after turning the hot water all the way up in a chilly shower. The monetary-policy equivalent would be faster inflation or another asset bubble in the wake of aggressive Fed action to tackle the slowdown in the economy.


♥

Balance of risks revisited

“I don’t think that’s fair because I don’t — again, I think I’ve been pretty clear in saying we have an economy in the US that is fundamentally healthy. I think the jobs numbers today showed an economy that is fundamentally healthy. We’ve got very strong demand outside of the US. We’ve got exports growing, employment strong, inflation is contained. There are some risks, and I’m focused on those risks. That’s my job, and the biggest risk we have is housing and housing is a big drag on our economy and still, we’re going through a turbulent time in the capital markets. That’s a risk so we’re focused on the risks, but let’s not forget that we have a healthy economy.”
-Paulson

Two days before the Fed meeting Paulson is making the case that the economy is strong and he says the risks are *his job* and not the Fed’s job. Also, he said we have a strong $ policy after being silent on that for several months or more. No cut in the fed funds rate Tuesday would support his statements.
This article is the consensus view that’s pricing in a 25 cut on Tuesday.

US Fed seems poised to lower interest rates again at its meeting Tuesday

By JEANNINE AVERSA updated 6:46 a.m. ET, Sun., Dec. 9, 2007 WASHINGTON

A lot has changed since the U.S. Federal Reserve hinted two months ago that it might be finished cutting interest rates for a while. Credit has become harder to obtain,

Not true per se. Some spreads have widened, but absolute levels for mortgages, for example, are lower, and good credits are getting LIBOR minus funding in the bond markets. Yes, funding is more difficult and more expensive for ‘Wall Street’, but ‘Main Street’ borrowing needs are being met at reasonable terms.

Wall Street has convulsed again,

Stocks are generally up recently, and up for the year.

and the housing slump has intensified.

Maybe modestly, with some indicators flat to higher. Prices down for the quarter but YoY prices still higher as reported by the two broader measures.

As a result, policymakers at the central bank now appear to have changed their minds about the need to drop interest rates again.

Yes, that’s the appearance as seen by the financial press. (I haven’t read it that way.)

The Fed had cut rates twice this year and officials suggested in October that might be enough to help the economy survive the credit and housing stress.

And immediately afterward in several speeches as fed officials attempted unsuccessfully to take the cut out of Jan FF futures.

Then the problems snowballed,

There were no ‘snowballing problems’ only some spread widening even as absolute rates were generally lower and LIBOR rates going up over the next ‘turn’ at year end.

leading Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke to signal that one more cut might be needed.

Again, that’s how the financial press heard him. They never even reported firm the firm talk on inflation risks becoming elevated. The attitude is anything the fed says about inflation is just talk they have to say and that they don’t mean and not worth reporting.

Analysts expect the Fed to trim its key rate, now at 4.5 percent, by one-quarter of a percentage point at the meeting Tuesday. Some even speculate about the possibility of a half-point cut.

Yes, that’s the consensus.

Banks, financial companies and other investors who made loans to people with spotty credit

and fraudulent applications

or put money into securities backed by those subprime mortgages have lost billions of dollars (euros). Investors in the U.S. and abroad have grown more wary of buying new debt, thereby aggravating the credit crunch.

Yes. But again, ‘Main Street’ still remains well funded at reasonable terms.

All this has added to the turmoil on Wall Street, and Bernanke and other Fed officials say they must take it into account when deciding their next move.

Yes. And the economic numbers have come in strong enough for markets to take up to 35 bp out of the Eurodollars and nearly eliminate pricing in a 50 cut in the last few trading days.

But does lowering rates mean the Fed essentially is bailing out investors or encouraging more sloppy decision-making? In other words, what exactly is the Fed’s job?

Bernanke and other Fed officials say it is to make policy that keeps the economy growing and inflation low, a stable climate that benefits individuals, businesses and investors. The Fed also has a responsibility to ensure the banking system is sound and financial markets run smoothly.

Yes, exactly.

“There is a link between Wall Street and Main Street. The Fed is taking the right actions, but they should be careful,” said Victor Li, an economics professor at the Villanova School of Business.

That implies the question is whether the ‘market functioning’ risk is higher than the inflation risk, which is what the fed was addressing with the last two cuts.

This time ‘market functioning’ risk rhetoric has taken a back seat to ‘economic weakness’ risk rhetoric.
One more story of note:

Fed’s Inflation Measure Says Rates Can’t Fall as Traders Expect

By Liz Capo McCormick and Sandra Hernandez

Dec. 10 (Bloomberg) — The key to whether the Federal Reserve continues to cut interest rates after this week may hang on the wall behind economist Brian Sack’s desk in Washington.

Sack, head of monetary and financial market analysis at the Fed in 2003 and 2004, uses a chart that plots forward rates measuring investor expectations for inflation in five years. The gauge is so accurate that Sack and his colleagues persuaded the central bank to use it to help set policy. The chart is autographed by former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan.

Right now, it shows current Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke may have less room to lower borrowing costs than investors in Treasuries anticipate, potentially setting bondholders up for a fall. The expected inflation rate, which Sack says replicates what Fed officials use, reached 2.91 percent last week, the highest since 2004, when the central bank began the first of an unprecedented 17 rate increases. The measure was at 2.79 percent on Nov. 1.

“One of the defining features of the Bernanke Fed to date is its emphasis on measures of longer-term inflation expectations,” said Sack, whose partners at Macroeconomic Advisors include former Fed Governor Laurence Meyer. “The Fed is willing to tolerate short-run movements in inflation, but only as long as those movements don’t appear to be dislodging long-run inflation expectations.”

Any evidence that accelerating inflation is becoming entrenched may heighten the Fed’s debate as policy makers consider cutting rates to keep the worst housing market in 16 years and mounting losses in securities related to subprime mortgages from tipping the economy into recession.

`Inflationary Pressures’

The gauge used by Sack, dubbed the five-year five-year forward breakeven inflation rate, suggests bets on lower Fed funds rates may be too bold.

Sack and other analysts derive the measure of inflation expectations from yields on five- and 10-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities and Treasuries.

Five-year TIPS yield 2.15 percentage points less than five- year notes. This so-called breakeven rate is the average inflation rate investors expect over the next five years. The forward rate projects what the breakeven will be in five years, smoothing blips in inflation expectations from swings in oil prices or other events.

The five-year TIPS’ breakeven rate rose to a six-month high of 2.47 percent Nov. 27, the week after oil climbed to a record $99.29 a barrel, from about 1.9 percent on Aug. 31. As crude fell to a six-week low on Dec. 6, the breakeven rate declined and Sack’s measure dropped to 2.85 percent.

Bernanke mentioned the forward rate in a 2004 speech. Simon Kwan, a vice president at the San Francisco Fed, singled out the measure in a 2005 report, saying it “captures the market’s assessment of how well the Federal Reserve promotes price stability in the long run.”

Gaining Steam

Most analysts expect the economy to gain steam through 2008. Growth will slow to 1.5 percent this quarter from a 4.9 percent annual rate last quarter, and rise to 2.6 percent by 2009, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey from Nov. 1 to Nov. 8.

The dollar, which is poised to depreciate against the euro for a second straight year, is also fueling inflation concerns. The currency’s drop and oil’s climb pushed import prices up 1.8 percent in October, the most in 17 months.

The government may say this week that consumer prices, which set TIPS rates, increased 4.1 percent last month from this year’s low of 2 percent in August and the biggest rise since July 2006, according to the median estimate of 19 economists. Food, imports and energy prices may raise inflation expectations, Bernanke said in a Nov. 30 speech in Charlotte, North Carolina.

To contact the reporter on this story:
Liz Capo McCormick in New York at Emccormick7@bloomberg.net ;
Sandra Hernandez in New York at shernandez4@bloomberg.net .

Last Updated: December 9, 2007 10:58 EST

‘The numbers’ could be used to support most anything the fed might do.The inflation numbers are both more than strong enough to support a hike, with CPI due to be reported north of 4.1 on December 14, and core moving up out of ‘comfort zones’ as well, not to mention ‘prices paid’ surveys higher and higher import and export with the weak $. Add to that the recent strong economic data – employment, CEO survey, and even car sales up a tad, etc. etc.

Inflation can also be dismissed as ‘only food and energy’ and due to fall based on (misreading) future prices as predictors of where prices will be, leaving the door open to cuts due to both ‘market functioning’ as justified by FF/LIBOR spreads at year end and the possibility of Wall Street spilling over to Main Street by ‘forward looking models’.

I can see the fed meeting going around in circles and it will come down to whether they care about inflation or not. Most of the financial community thinks they don’t, and they may be correct.

I think they do care, and care a lot, but that fear of ‘market functioning’ was severe enough to temporarily overcome their perceived imperative to sustain and environment of low inflation. And at the October meeting, the fear of some members has subsided enough to report a dissenting vote, along with half the regional banks voting against a cut.

I do think that if the fed cuts 25 it will be because they are afraid of what happens if they don’t as markets are already pricing in a 25 cut, even though this is what happened October 31, and Fisher said they wouldn’t price in a cut for that reason.

The Balance of Risks

So what would they anticipate if they don’t cut FF? The $ up, commodities down, stocks down, and credit spreads widening.

Is that risk less acceptable than the risk of promoting inflation and risking the elevation of inflation expectations if they do cut 25?

Then, there is the ‘compromise’ of cutting the discount rate and removing the stigma to address year end liquidity and ‘market functioning’ in general, with and/or without cutting the fed funds rate. The anticipated results would be a muted stock market reaction as FF/LIBOR spreads narrow, and hopefully, other credit spreads also narrow.

And if they cut the discount rate and don’t cut the FF rate, the $ will still be expected to go up and commodities down. And, with liquidity improved, stocks may be expected to do better as well.

But even though Kohn discussed this in his speech and others touched on the ‘liquidity versus the macro economy’ as well, there is no way to know how much consideration it may be given.


♥

Review of Bernanke Speech

(prefaced by interoffice email)

> Key line is the Committee will have to judge whether the outlook
> for the economy or the balance of risks has shifted materially. This
> opens the door for changing the balance of risk at the next FOMC
> meeting (Towards weaker gwth in light of expressed concerns on
> markets). This could mean a cut with a changed bias, or no cut
> and a changed bias (less likely).

Yes, agreed, and the inflation risk has elevated as well.

If they are thinking of a discount rate cut to the fed funds rate they may do it before the meeting to see if it alters the fed funds/libor spread. If they do that and spreads do come in over year end (the current cause of higher short term non tsy rates as mentioned in some of the Fed speeches) that will tilt the balance of risks aways from ‘market functioning’ risks.

Worth looking at the entire speech..

Chairman Ben S. Bernanke
National and regional economic overview
At the presentation of the Citizen of the Carolinas Award, Charlotte
Chamber of Commerce, Charlotte, North Carolina
November 29, 2007

Good evening. I thank the Charlotte Chamber of Commerce for bestowing on me this year’s Citizen of the Carolinas Award. I deeply appreciate the honor, and I am grateful for the opportunity it gives me to speak to you this evening. I am also delighted to be here in Charlotte. My wife Anna and I are looking forward to visiting family and friends during our time here in the Queen City.

The focus of my brief remarks this evening will be the Charlotte region and how the area and the economy have changed since I regularly visited my grandparents here some four-and-a-half decades ago. First, though, I would like to share a few thoughts on the U.S. economy and the considerations that we at the Federal Reserve will be weighing as we prepare for our policy meeting on December 11, less than two weeks from now.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the monetary policy making arm of the Federal Reserve System, last met on October 30-31. At that meeting, the Committee cut its target for the federal funds rate, the key policy interest rate, by 25 basis points (1/4 of a percentage point), following a cut of 50 basis points in September. Economic growth in the period leading up to the October meeting had proven quite strong, as confirmed by this morning’s figures on third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP). At its meeting, however, Committee members took the view that tightening credit conditions–the product of ongoing stresses in financial markets–and some intensification of the correction in the housing sector were likely to restrain economic activity going forward.

Potential ‘market functioning’ risk.

Specifically, growth appeared likely to slow significantly in the fourth quarter from its rapid third-quarter rate and to remain sluggish in early 2008. The Committee expected that economic growth would thereafter gradually return to a pace approaching its long-run trend as the drag from housing subsided and financial conditions improved. Inflation was seen as edging down next year, approaching rates consistent with price stability;

Implying it’s too high now.

however, the Committee remained concerned about the possible effects of higher energy costs and the lower foreign exchange value of the dollar, especially the risk that they might lead to an increase in the public’s long-term inflation expectations.

Yes, which led to a dissenting vote and six regional banks not wanting a cut.

How has the economic picture changed in the month since that meeting? As is often the case, the incoming economic data have been mixed.

This is the sum of data – not clearly worse and not clearly worse than forecast. My guess in Q4 is their Q4 forecast has been revised up, and the continual upward revisions of Q3 and now Q4 have to be influencing their view of Q1 forecasts and beyond as well.

In the market for residential real estate, indicators of construction and home sales have continued to be weak. In contrast, the labor market remained solid in October, with some 130,000 new jobs added to private-sector payrolls and the unemployment rate remaining at 4.7 percent. Claims for unemployment insurance have drifted up a bit in recent weeks, although, on average, they have remained at a level consistent with moderate expansion in employment. We will, of course, have the labor market report for November next week, and in the coming days we will continue to draw on anecdotal reports, surveys, and other sources of information about employment and wages. Continued good performance by the labor market is important for maintaining the economic expansion, as growth in earnings helps to underpin household spending.

Strong emphasis on employment data. It has probably been the most reliable indicator over the last six months. No one could ‘understand’ how employment remained high until after late numbers on exports came in, for example.

With respect to household spending, the data received over the past month have been on the soft side. The Committee will have considerable additional information on consumer purchases and sentiment to digest before its next meeting. I expect household income and spending to continue to grow, but the combination of higher gas prices, the weak housing market, tighter credit conditions, and declines in stock prices seem likely to create some headwinds for the consumer in the months ahead.

And ‘on the soft side’ is no reason to cut – especially with exports growing rapidly and supporting demand at high levels.

Core inflation–that is, inflation excluding the relatively more volatile prices of food and energy–has remained moderate.

But not moderated further.

However, the price of crude oil has continued its rise over the past month, a rise that will be reflected in gasoline and heating oil prices and, of course, in the overall inflation rate in the near term. Moreover, increases in food prices and in the prices of some imported goods have the potential to put additional pressures on inflation and inflation expectations.

He is stating directly the inflation risk has increased since October 31.

The effectiveness of monetary policy depends critically on maintaining the public’s confidence that inflation will be well controlled. We are accordingly monitoring inflation developments closely.

They believe they must have credibility to keep inflation expectations anchored.

The incoming data on economic activity and prices

Both – which includes CPI forecasts available before the December 11 meeting.

will help to shape the Committee’s outlook for the economy; however, the outlook has also been importantly affected over the past month by renewed turbulence in financial markets, which has partially reversed the improvement that occurred in September and October.

Partially. Being in the middle with active trading is perfectly acceptable. The concern is spreads will widen further/rapidly to the point trading ceases and real world lending ceases as a consequence, though the ‘channel’ for this is uncertain, and mainstream economic theory probably would say it’s a natural adjustment process that should be left alone for optimal long term outcomes.

Comments welcome on this point, thanks!

Investors have focused on continued credit losses and write-downs across a number of financial institutions, prompted in many cases by credit-rating agencies’ downgrades of securities backed by residential mortgages. The fresh wave of investor concern has contributed in recent weeks to a decline in equity values, a widening of risk spreads for many credit products (not only those related to housing), and increased short-term funding pressures.

All a repricing of risk.

These developments have resulted in a further tightening in financial conditions, which has the potential to impose additional restraint on activity in housing markets and in other credit-sensitive sectors.

But perhaps to where it ‘should be’ as the fed did not like it when risk was priced at zero. What they are watching closely is ‘market functioning’ and the risk of systemic failure.

Needless to say, the Federal Reserve is following the evolution of financial conditions carefully, with particular attention to the question of how strains in financial markets might affect the broader economy.

As above.

In sum, as I have indicated, we will be receiving a good deal of relevant information in the coming days. In making its policy decision, the Committee will have to judge whether the outlook for the economy or the balance of risks has shifted materially.

Implying so far it has not.

In doing so, we will take full account of the implications for the outlook of both the incoming economic data and the ongoing developments in the financial markets.Economic forecasting is always difficult, but the current stresses in financial markets make the uncertainty surrounding the outlook even greater than usual. We at the Federal Reserve will have to remain exceptionally alert and flexible as we continue to assess how best to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability in the United States.

Perhaps a reference to Kohn’s discount rate discussion where he discusses addressing liquidity vs. addressing the macro economy, a discussion which has gotten into the ‘stigma’ aspect of the discount rate that he felt was an obstacle to liquidity.

References
Employment Security Commission of North Carolina (2007). “Employment
and Wages by Industry, 1990 to Most Recent,”
www.ncesc.com/lmi/industry/industrymain.asp.

Hills, Thomas D. (2007). “The Rise of Southern Banking and the
Disparities among the States following the Southeastern Regional
Banking Compact (225 KB PDF),” Balance Sheet, vol. 11, pp. 57-104,
http://studentorgs.law.unc.edu/ncbank/balancesheet.

North Carolina Community College System (2006). “Get the Facts,”
press release, July 3,
www.ncccs.cc.nc.us/News_Releases/GetTheFacts.htm.

U.S. Census Bureau (2006). “2005 American Community Survey,”
www.census.gov/acs.