Bernanke Archive

DXY and exports

[Skip to the end] Dollar Index vs US Exports Right – seems to me the dollar will fall until it’s at a level where the trade gap goes to about zero. So even though exports are way up and the trade gap down, there could be a lot more to go. A ...Read More

Fed minutes – longish version

[Skip to the end] I cut quite a bit, but still a lot worth a quick read: In view of continuing strains in interbank and other financial markets, the Committee took up proposals to expand several of the liquidity arrangements that had been put in place in recent months. Chairman Bernanke indicated ...Read More

FT: Germany leans towards tax cut

[Skip to the end] Germany leans towards tax cut by Bertrand Benoit (FT) Michael Glos said the government’s budget pledge “should not stand in isolation above all other [goals]”. The minister said he “fully supported” a plan by his Christian Social Union to cut income tax by €28bn ($43bn, £22bn) until 2012 ...Read More

2008-05-03 Weekend update (in brief)

[Skip to the end] No recession here, and Q1 likely to be revised higher when March trade numbers come out. Q3 could be 2% depending on the multiplier from the fiscal package, and by Q3 other government spending will be kicking in for the elections and housing is unlikely to be subtracting ...Read More

Changing Tides

I’ve been thinking that when the Fed turns its attention to inflation it will find itself way behind that curve, which it is by any mainstream standard, and that the curve then gets negative from a year or two out as markets anticipate rate hikes followed by falling inflation and rate cuts. ...Read More

Money (USD)

My take on the USD: It was at a level based on foreigners wanting to accumulate $70 billion per month which also = the US trade gap (accounting identity). Most of that desire to accumulate came from foreign CBs trying to support their exporters, oil producers accumulating USD financial assets, and foreign ...Read More

ABC personal finance subcomponent

ABC personal finance subcomponent Down but not out. Weakness, but probably no recession as per Bernanke’s latest address before Congress. Inflation ripping, as Fed staff raises it’s near term forecast. The Fed ‘fights inflation’ with ‘slack’. The Fed waiting for slack to be reduced before turning its attention to inflation is illogical ...Read More

Reuters: Bernanke: full effect of rate cuts yet to be felt

by Alister Bull (Reuters) The full benefit of recent Federal Reserve interest rate cuts has not yet been felt, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said Thursday, nodding to a policy lag that may reduce the need for many more rate moves ahead. Ben Bernanke “Further actions will have to depend on how ...Read More

Watch Here: Discussion of March 18th, 2008 Fed meeting

Topic: Discussion of March 18th FOMC meeting Aired: Tuesday, March 18th, 2008 @ 11AM EST Note: The audio doesn’t work in the beginning – equipment upgrade next time. ...Read More

Live Video: Tuesday, March 18th @ 11AM EST!

Topic: Discussion of March 18th FOMC meeting. Airs: Tuesday, March 18th, 2008 @ 11AM EST If you have an advanced questions, please email [email protected] or leave a comment; otherwise, call (339) 368-6098 during the video conference. ...Read More