2008-04-01 US Economic Releases

2008-04-01 ISM Manufacturing

ISM Manufacturing (Mar)

Survey 47.5
Actual 48.6
Prior 48.3
Revised n/a

Still soft, but better than expected and not at recession levels of 44 or less.


2008-04-01 ISM Prices Paid

ISM Prices Paid (Mar)

Survey 75.0
Actual 83.5
Prior 75.5
Revised n/a

2008-04-01 ISM TABLE

2008-04-01 ISM TABLE

ISM TABLE

Prices paid up and employment up -inflation and a lower output gap- not the direction the Fed wants the economy to be going.


2008-04-01 Construction Spending MoM

Construction Spending MoM (Feb)

Survey -1.0%
Actual -0.3%
Prior -1.7%
Revised -1.0%

Better than expected, prior month revised up, and the chart still looks lower but not all that bad.


2008-04-01 ABC Consumer Confidence

ABC Consumer Confidence (Mar 30)

Survey -n/a
Actual -33
Prior -31
Revised n/a

Seems to have bottomed, and today’s stock market action should give it a boost.


2008-04-01 Total Vehicle Sales

Total Vehicle Sales (Mar)

Survey 15.2M
Actual 15.1M
Prior 15.3M
Revised n/a

2008-04-01 Domestic Vehicle Sales

Domestic Vehicle Sales

Survey 11.6M
Actual 11.1M
Prior 11.7M
Revised n/a

Still working its way lower.

2008-03-25 US Economic Releases

2008-03-25 S&P-CS Home Price Index

S&P-CS Home Price Index (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 180.7
Prior 184.9
Revised 185.0

2008-03-25 S&P-CS Composite 20 YoY

S&P-CS Composite-20 YoY (Jan)

Survey -10.5%
Actual -10.7%
Prior -9.1%
Revised -9.0%

Still falling.  January/Winter numbers.  Lagging indicators.

Just kicked in in March.


2008-03-25 Consumer Confidence

Consumer Confidence (Mar)

Survey 73.5
Actual 64.5
Prior 75.0
Revised 76.4

Down sharply, a lagging indicator, and subject to sharp reversals.


2008-03-25 House Price Index MoM

House Price Index MoM (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.1%
Prior -0.2%
Revised -0.6%

Was still heading south in January.


2008-03-25 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar)

Survey -5
Actual 6
Prior -5
Revised n/a

Quite a few March numbers are looking up.


2008-03-25 ABC Consumer Confidence

ABC Consumer Confidence (Mar 23)

Survey n/a
Actual -31
Prior -31
Revised n/a

Another March number that shows some signs of life after a rough winter.

2008-03-18 US Economic Releases

2008-03-18 Producer Price Index MoM

Producer Price Index MoM (Feb)

Survey 0.4%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 1.0%
Revised n/a

2008-03-18 PPI Ex Food & Energy MoM

PPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (Feb)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.5%
Prior 0.4%
Revised n/a

2008-03-18 Producer Price Index YoY

Producer Price Index YoY (Feb)

Survey 6.8%
Actual 6.4%
Prior 7.4%
Revised n/a

2008-03-18 PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY

PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY (Feb)

Survey 2.1%
Actual 2.4%
Prior 2.3%
Revised n/a

Troubling as the Fed has indicated it’s getting passed through to core CPI measures.


2008-03-18 Housing Starts

Housing Starts (Feb)

Survey 995K
Actual 1065K
Prior 1012K
Revised 1071K

More indications of a possible bottom in housing, meaning it won’t be subtracting as much from GDP for the rest of the year.

Karim Basta:

Housing starts fall 0.6% in Feb, but January revised higher by 5.8%.

One notable trend is single vs multi-family starts. The latter has now risen for 3 straight months, whereas the former continues to decline across most regions. A couple explanations out there-foreclosures, real income weakness driving trend towards apartments/condos vs homes.

Permits fall another 7.8%; suggesting more declines in housing contribution to GDP going forward.

Margin squeeze evident in PPI as headline rises 0.3% and core by 0.5%.


2008-03-18 Building Permits

Building Permits (Feb)

Survey 1020K
Actual 978K
Prior 1048K
Revised 1061K

Looking down, but the prior revision might be more relevant.


2008-03-18 FOMC Rate Decision

FOMC Rate Decision (Mar 18)

Survey 2.25%
Actual 2.25%
Prior 3.00%
Revised n/a

2008-03-18 ABC Consumer Confidence

ABC Consumer Confidence (Mar 16)

Survey n/a
Actual -31
Prior -30
Revised n/a

Yet another chart that may have bottomed?

2008-03-11 US Economic Releases

2008-03-11 Trade Balance TABLE

Trade Balance TABLE

2008-03-11 Exports YoY

Exports YoY

2008-03-11 Trade Balance

Trade Balance (Jan)

Survey -$59.5B
Actual -$58.2B
Prior -$58.8B
Revised -$57.9B

Exports up over 16.6% year over year (supports GDP) – looks like a banana republic!

Trade balance lower than expected with crude up to much. Should keep working it’s way lower all year as non residents work to reduce their rate of accumulation of USD financial assets.


IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (Mar)

Survey 40.5
Actual 42.5
Prior 44.5
Revised n/a

Down, but a little bit better than expected.


2008-03-11 ABC Consumer Confidence

ABC Consumer Confidence (Mar 9)

Survey n/a
Actual -30
Prior -34
Revised n/a

Could that be a bounce back?  Haven’t seen one in so long can’t remember….

2008-02-26 US Economic Releases

2008-02-26 Producer Price Index MoM

Producer Price Index MoM (Jan)

Survey 0.4%
Actual 1.0%
Prior -0.1%
Revised -0.3%

2008-02-26 PPI Ex Food & Energy MoM

PPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (Jan)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.4%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

2008-02-26 Producer Price Index YoY

Producer Price Index YoY (Jan)

Survey 7.3%
Actual 7.4%
Prior 6.3%
Revised n/a

2008-02-26 PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY

PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY (Jan)

Survey 2.2%
Actual 2.3%
Prior 2.0%
Revised n/a

To high for the Fed and looking higher. Kohn speaking next today.

In the early 70’s inflation kept going up, even after crude flattened out for several years after a fivefold+ jump,


2008-02-26 S&P-CaseShiller Home Price Index

S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual 184.9
Prior 188.8
Revised 188.9

2008-02-26 S&P-CS Composite-20 YoY

S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY (Dec)

Survey -9.7%
Actual -9.1%
Prior -7.7%
Revised n/a

2008-02-26 S&P-CS US HPI

S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI (4Q)

Survey n/a
Actual 170.6
Prior 180.5
Revised 180.3

2008-02-26 S&P-CS US HPI YoY%

S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI YoY% (4Q)

Survey n/a
Actual -8.9%
Prior -4.5%
Revised -4.6%

2008-02-26 Consumer Confidence

Consumer Confidence (Feb)

Survey 82.0
Actual 75.0
Prior 87.9
Revised 87.3

2008-02-26 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index

Richmond Fed Manufact. Index (Feb)

Survey -12
Actual -5
Prior -8
Revised n/a

2008-02-26 Housing Price Index QoQ

House Price Index QoQ (4Q)

Survey -1.0%
Actual 0.1%
Prior -0.4%
Revised -0.2%

Not released yet..

ABC Consumer Confidence (Feb 24)

Survey
Actual
Prior -37
Revised

[comments]


2008-02-05 US Economic Releases

2008-02-05 ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite

ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite (Jan)

Survey 52.5
Actual 44.6
Prior 53.2
Revised n/a

2008-02-05 ISM Non-Manufacturing Business

ISM Non-Manufacturing Business (Jan)

Survey 53.0
Actual 41.9
Prior 53.9
Revised 54.4

These are the types of numbers you get after something like Katrina or 911. Either the economy hit the wall suddenly in January or there is some kind of statistical adjustment that took place.

Note that ISM was revised even higher for December, then collapsed in January. Other statistics that fell apart in January include payrolls, vehicle sales, and mortgage applications, which come out in a few hours, and initial claims, due out tomorrow.


2008-02-05 ABC Consumer Confidence

ABC Consumer Confidence (Feb 3)

Survey n/a
Actual -33
Prior -27
Revised n/a

This has been falling for a while and is no surprise given the headline recession proclamations.


♥

2008-01-29 US Economic Releases

2008-01-29 Durable Goods Orders Total

Durable Goods Orders Total (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual 226,601
Prior 215,433
Revised n/a

2008-01-29 Durables Ex Transporation Total

Durables Ex Transportation Total (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual 155,206
Prior 151,303
Revised n/a

2008-01-29 Durable Goods YoY % Change

Durable Goods YoY % Change

Survey n/a
Actual 5.0%
Prior -0.6%
Revised n/a

Doesn’t look much like recession to me. November revised up to where last month’s number might have changed impressions as well.

This also increases the chances that the December employment number gets revised up this Friday, along with a lower unemployment number for January.

From Karim:

The 5.2% rise in DGO is a bit of a mixed bag
–81% rise in aircraft orders (likely to help exports)
–ex-aircraft and defense still up 4.4%;

Yes, that’s what an export economy looks like.

but looks like making up for lost ground as 3mth trend (annualized) falls from -1.2% to -2.8%
–more troubling is shown in chart attached; inventory/shipments ratio threatening multi-year highs (inverted on chart); suggests more downside for industrial production in period ahead

Or it could mean larger shipments being readied.

Unfilled orders up 2.5% month over month; up 18.5% year over year,

Johnson-Redbook and ICSC chain store sales reflect weak January; sales about flat to December.

Yes, that’s what an export economy looks like. Decent employment but weaker domestic real consumption, as more of the output gets shipped abroad rather than getting consumed domestically.

Case-Shiller Index falls from -6.07% y/y to -7.74% y/y. 10 largest metro-areas fall from -6.67% to -8.42% y/y.

Yes, a November number. Real estate in largest areas was still falling back then.


2008-01-29 S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY

S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY (Nov)

Survey -7.1%
Actual -7.7%
Prior -6.1%
Revised n/a

2008-01-29 S&P/CS Home Price Index

S&P/CS Home Price Index (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual 188.8
Prior 192.9
Revised 192.9

2008-01-29 Consumer Confidence

Consumer Confidence (Jan)

Survey 87.0
Actual 87.9
Prior 88.6
Revised 90.6

2008-01-29 ABC Consumer Confidence

ABC Consumer Confidence (Jan)

Survey -24
Actual -27
Prior -23
Revised n/a

Still looking weak. But with CNBC turning more positive on the economy, this might turn up soon.


2008-01-22 US Economic Releases

2008-01-22 FOMC Inter-meeting Rate Cut

FOMC Inter-meeting Rate Cut (Jan 22)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.50%
Prior 4.25%
Revised n/a

The cut was fully priced in for next week, with a lesser probability for doing it today.

The Fed is worried about ‘financial conditions’ and hopes to prevent them from spilling over into the real economy by doing, what the mainstream would call, ‘stepping on the inflation pedal.’


2008-01-22 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan)

Survey -5
Actual -8
Prior -4
Revised n/a

2008-01-22 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index TABLE

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index TABLE

Down, but was lower last year about this time.

Also, the details of the table say more than the headline number. Shipments, cap utilization, and number of employees were the larger declines. Lead time, wages, and new orders and backlogs were up the highest percent. Prices remained moderately positive.


2008-01-22 ABC Consumer Confidence

ABC Consumer Confidence

Survey n/a
Actual -23
Prior -24
Revised n/a

Bumping along the bottom – still watching CNBC.


♥