2008-01-18 US Economic Releases

Leading Indicators (Dec) Survey -0.1% Actual -0.2% Prior -0.4% Revised n/a Down some, but not terrible. U. of Michigan Confidence (Jan P) Survey 74.5 Actual 80.5 Prior 75.5 Revised n/a Up, but not great – not yet the stuff of recession. U. of Michigan Confidence TABLE Note how high the current levels ...Read More

Lacker speech (edited)

NOTE: Particularly the last 3 paragraphs on inflation, as he has always been hawkish: Remarks by Jeffrey M. Lacker President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond The Economic Outlook for 2008 Risk Management Association Richmond, Virginia January 18, 2008 Home prices increased significantly during the long boom, particularly in local markets with restricted ...Read More

Fed’s Fisher

Doesn’t get any more hawkish than this. Well worth a quick read. Richard W. Fisher Challenges for Monetary Policy in a Globalized Economy Remarks before the Global Interdependence Center Philadelphia, Pennsylvania January 17, 2008 Thank you, Charlie [Plosser]. I am grateful for the invitation to speak to the Global Interdependence Center. (NON ...Read More

2008-01-18 China Highlights

Highlights: China GDP growth to ease to 10.5 percent Yes, but… Property prices in major Chinese cities up 10.5% in December Yuan Gains for the Sixth Week, Its Longest Rising Streak in Seven Months Local authorities urged to make interim price control plans Banks show record figures ♥ ...Read More

Home prices and OER

Looks like it will take a very large drop in home prices to slow the ‘pull’ on owner’s equivalent rent (the basis for the CPI housing component). ♥ ...Read More

2008-01-18 EU Highlights

With the US Fed cutting aggressively, and now a reasonably large US fiscal package a near certainty, the mainstream will see increase in US demand as further support for world prices. They have no economic theory to support this. In fact, mainstream theory would more likely be inclined to call this policy ...Read More

The fix is in – strong growth for 2008?

We have gone from the jobless recovery to the full employment recession. Recap of prospects for strong GDP in 2008 – details/support covered in previous posts: Government spending has been moved forward and is now kicking in. Exports accelerating, sustainable, and keeping personal income growing. Business inventories are very low. Fiscal package ...Read More

2008-01-17 US Economic Releases

Housing Starts (Dec) Survey 1145K Actual 1006K Prior 1187K Revised 1173K Building Permits (Dec) Survey 1135K Actual 1068K Prior 1152K Revised 1162K Both still in free fall – may be weather distorted some, but they don’t look good. Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 12) Survey 331K Actual 301K Prior 322K Revised n/a All ...Read More


Fed/Bernanke probably concerned about core CPI going so high and making ‘popular’ headlines and is worried about cutting 50 into the triple negative supply shock of food/fuel/import-export prices. And with today’s claims number showing, there may not be as much slack in the labor markets as the last unemployment number indicated. The ...Read More

December beige book – modest increase

No recession, yet.. Stocks rise after Fed releases report by Tim Paradis (CNBC) Stocks were mostly higher Wednesday after a Federal Reserve report showing economic growth at the end of 2007 appeared to quiet some worries of a precipitous slowdown in the economy. The modest rebound from a sharp pullback Tuesday came ...Read More