8:30 Numbers

Consensus was high enough, let’s see how tomorrow turns out. Also retail sales up a lot more than just energy prices, and claims down. Still no sign yet of aggregate demand breaking down Lehman earnings higher than estimates November Inflation Surged; Retail Sales Also Strong Inflation at the wholesale level was stronger ...Read More

AMT tax cut

Seems the AMT tax cut has a chance of getting through with being ‘paid for’ if the Democrats capitulate. This would add about 100 billion to the deficit and help support aggregate demand a bit. ♥ ...Read More

UK Inflation expectations rise

Sends a chill up the spine of any red blooded mainstream central banker! Inflation expectations rise Thu Dec 13, 2007 9:37am GMT – Britons’ expectations of future inflation rose to hit a series high of 3.0 percent in November, well above the actual rate of inflation, a survey by the Bank of ...Read More

Credit Recap

(an interoffice email) > > Office Depot (ODP): Announced today that it sees erosion of sales and > earnings in the 4th quarter of 2007 due to housing problems, especially in > FL and CA. These two states account for 28% of ODP’s North American sales. > First actual weak report for ...Read More

2007-12-12 US Economic Releases

MBA Mortgage Applications (Dec 7) Survey n/a Actual 2.5% Prior 22.5% Revised n/a Mortgage Bankers Association Purchasing Index SA Looking very firm. Possible evidence housing may have bottomed. Affordability is up with prices flat to down, rates down, and nominal income growing. Yes, I’ve heard the stories about multiple applications, but even ...Read More

Senate energy bill keeps biofuels alive

Senate approves $650M alternative energy billBy MARC LEVY HARRISBURG, Pa. – Builders of wind farms, owners of coal-fired power plants and buyers of hybrid cars and solar panels would be among those who benefit from a $650 million compromise bill approved Wednesday by the state Senate to promote cleaner energies and conservation. ...Read More

Bank losses remain less than a year’s earnings

(Reuters article) Big Banks Lower Outlook, Overshadowing Fed Plan Three major U.S. banks said they expect more write-downs and loan losses in the fourth quarter, eroding investor enthusiam over a Federal Reserve plan to ease the global credit crunch. The warnings from the three banks, Bank of America, Wachovia and PNC Financial ...Read More

GC Tsy changes post announcment

I’m mainly interested in LIBOR over the turn as an indicator or how the new international facility is doing. Also watching to see when higher oil means higher inflation and higher rates, vs. higher oil currently meaning econ weakness and lower rates. Maybe next week after this weeks inflation numbers are out. ...Read More

Fed regs with comments

Note they’ve also added the international arrangements as per my discussion earlier today. The same recommendations suggested in August. 7 Lending by the Federal Reserve The Federal Reserve’s authority to extend loans is a potentially powerful tool with which it can stimulate aggregate demand. Loans to depository institutions can help spur credit ...Read More

Re: new fed lending facility

(an interoffice email) > – any chance they would take discount window rate down intra-meeting (or before year end) seems they don’t have to with this new ‘facility.’ > – have u evaluated the “loan auction” story? Seems a lot like ‘standard’ repo apart from accepting pretty much anything as collateral from ...Read More