The news flow from last week was so voluminous it was nearly impossible to process. For good measure I want to start today’s commentary with a simple recap of what happened.

On the negative side -

· Greece called a referendum and threw bailout plans up in the air taking Greek 2yrs from 70% to 90% or +2000bps.
· Italian 10yr debt collapsed 40bps with spreads to Germany out 70bps. The moves were far larger in the 2yr sector.
· France 10y debt widened 25bps to Germany. At one point spreads were almost 40 wider.
· Italian PMI and Spanish employment data were miserable.
· German factory orders plunged 4.3 percent on the month.
· The planned EFSF bond for 3bio was pulled.
· Itraxx financials were +34 while subs were +45.
· Draghi predicted a recession for Europe along with disinflation.
· The G20 was flop – there was no agreement on IMF involvement in Europe.
· The US super committee deadline is 17 days away with no clear agreement.
· The 8th largest US bankruptcy in history took place.
· US 10yr and 30yr rallied 28bps, Spoos were -2.5%, the Dax was -6% and EURUSD was -3%.
· German CDS was up 16bps on the week.

On the positive side -

· The Fed showed its hand with tightening dissents now gone and an easing dissent in place.

Too bad what they call ‘easing’ at best has been shown to do nothing.

· The Fed’s significant downside risk language remained intact.

Downside risks sound like bad news to me.

· In the press conference Ben teed up QE3 in MBS space.

Which at best have been shown to do little or nothing for the macro economy.

· US payrolls, claims, vehicle sales and productivity came in better than expected.

And the real output gap if anything widened.

· S&P earnings are coming in at +18% y/y with implied corporate profits at +23 percent q/q a.r.

Reinforces the notion that it’s a good for stocks, bad for people economy.

· Mortgage speeds were much faster than expectations suggesting some easing refi pressures.

And savers holding those securities saw their incomes cut faster than expected.

· The ECB cut 25bps and indicated a dovish forward looking stance.

Which reduced euro interest income for the non govt sectors

· CME Margins were reduced.

Just means volatility was down some.

· There was a massive USDJPY intervention which may be a precursor to a Swiss style Japanese policy easing.

Which, for the US, means reduced costs of imports from Japan, which works against US exports, which should be a good thing for the US as it means for the size govt we have, taxes could be lowered to sustain demand, but becomes a bad thing as our leadership believes the US Federal deficit to be too large and so instead we get higher unemployment.

· The Swiss have indicated they want an even weaker CHF – possibly EURCHF 1.40.

When this makes a list of ‘positives’ you know the positives are pretty sorry

· The Aussies cut rates 25bps

Cutting net interest income for the economy.

Makes sense.

I always wondered how that loan demand was accommodated.
Never looked like the kind of lending US regulators would sanction.

Karim writes:

Utter failure of policy.

The Fed was certain it knew what Japan had done wrong and wasn’t going to make THOSE mistakes.

So it

Cut rates much more aggressively.

Said it would do whatever it takes.

Figured out how to do its job as liquidity provider after only 6 months of alphabet soup programs.

Did heaps of Quantitative Easing.

Did the twist.

And now, realizing its done about all it can do, says monetary policy can’t do it all.

And still fails to recognize publicly the actual problem is the budget deficit is way too small.

And doesn’t directly inform Congress that

there is no such thing as a solvency problem,

the Fed controls government interest rates, and not the market,

there is no long term deficit problem with regards to finance,

the only thing we owe China is a bank statement,

Quantitative Easing and rate cuts remove interest income from the economy, which allows the deficit to be that much larger,

etc.

as we continue to go the way of Japan.

Karim writes:

Some improvement around the edges but the larger narrative is employment rising only at a rate fast enough to keep the unemployment rate stable (not higher or lower)

The obvious hasn’t been making the headlines:

A no vote means a lot more immediate austerity than a yes vote.

A no vote means Greece can’t borrow at all, and therefore govt. checks will only clear if Greece immediately cuts back to where it is only spending tax revenue.

A yes vote means Greece can continue to spend quite a bit more than tax revenues, to the tune of the check from the benefactors.

And with no one in government at any level having any kind of a plan to leave the euro, and no idea how to manage a new currency in any case, that option continues to have no political support.

So the choices are:
Yes, we accept a relatively modest deficit cut as per the EU proposal.
No, we prefer to go cold turkey to a balanced budget and a seriously draconian cut.

Meanwhile, tick, tick, tick, the entire euro economy continues to slow, and continuously nudge up the entire region’s budget deficit, as they all work their way towards the same fate as Greece.

And, tick, tick, tick, the US deficit reduction process moves forward, with multi trillion dollar reductions already proposed by both parties.

Greek Vote Threatens Bailout

By Alkman Granitsas, Marcus Walker, and Costas Paris

November 1 (WSJ) — ATHENS—Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou stunned Europe by announcing a referendum on his country’s latest bailout—a high-stakes gamble that could undermine the international effort to preserve the euro.

A “yes” vote in the referendum could deflate the massive street protests and strikes that threaten to paralyze Greece as it tries to enact a brutal austerity program to earn rescue loans from the euro zone and the International Monetary Fund.

As discussed last week, the latest euro package just announced is unravelling quickly as markets again realize there is no actual substance, and no operational path with regards to carrying any of it out. So things will deteriorate as described until markets again force further ‘action.’

At the same time, the austerity continues to weaken the euro economies, with Q4 potentially going negative, driving deficits that much higher in the process.

The ‘answer’ remains the ECB writing the check, which they’ve sort of seemed to recognize, but they remain (errantly) concerned that reliance on the ECB is inherently inflationary, and thereby violates the ECB’s mandate for price stability. So it won’t happen until things again get bad enough to force it to happen.

The catastrophic risk remains a failure, when push comes to shove, to allow the ECB to write the check as they have been doing to allow it all to muddle through.

The range of outcomes couldn’t be wider. Write the check and not much happens, don’t write the check and there is unthinkable collapse.

Meanwhile, the 1% running the US looks to be trying to take the lead in the global austerity race to the bottom as the Democrats in the super committee on deficit reduction have led off by proposing a $4 trillion deficit reduction package.

Toss in West Texas crude prices heading to Brent levels of about $110/barrel as the strategic petroleum reserve release winds down over the next three weeks and the looks to me like the US consumer crawls back into his foxhole just in time for the holiday season.

Not to mention Japan now darning the torpedoes and buying dollars to take back a bit of the export market they lost by kowtowing to former tsy sec paulson’s demands to not be a ‘currency manipulator’ in the context of still weakening global demand in general.

The number one threat to world order remains a failure to sustain demand. The good news is sustaining aggregate demand is a simple matter once the monetary system is understood. The bad news is there seems to be no one of authority who doesn’t have it all backwards.

Still seems to me that the idea that WTI appreciates to Brent as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve release winds down over the next few weeks is playing out as previously discussed. The WTI discount depends on a serious glut condition persisting, and the wind down of the approx 3.8 million barrels a week being delivered from the strategic petroleum reserve will work to reduce the glut by that amount.

If so, WTI is marching towards $110/barrel which seems to me could trigger substantial market reactions.

And about the same time the super committee deficit reduction talks will be in full swing, euro financing stresses elevated, exacerbated by confirmation of the 0 gdp growth forecasts hit the headlines, and further slowdown news from China complicating things as well.

The ‘answer’ remains as simple as it is further away from political reality than ever, even though the right policy responses couldn’t be more attractive to both sides:

The US budget deficit is too small.

Brilliant. Reminds me of Will Rogers. Think of all he’d have said if he’d understood MMT.

US Treasury May Issue Debt With Floating Interest Rate

By Jeff Cox

October 24 (CNBC) — Dealers and traders have been approached recently with plans to issue a floating-rate note that for investors would provide an opportunity to profit should rates go up and for the government a chance to restructure its debt even further.

1. A full FICA suspension to end that highly regressive, punishing tax and restore sales, output, and jobs.
2. $150 billion in federal revenue sharing for the state goverments on a per capita basis to sustain essential services.
3. An $8/hr federally funded transition job for anyone willing and able to work to facilitate the transition from unemployment to private sector employment.
4. See my universal health care proposals on this website (Health Care Proposal).
5. See my proposals for narrow banking, the Fed, the Treasury and the FDIC on this website (Banking Proposal).
6. See my proposal’s to take away the financial sector’s ‘food supply’ by banning pension funds from buying equities, banning the Tsy from issuing anything longer than 3 month bills, and many others.
7. Universal Social Security at age 62 at a minimum level of support that makes us proud to be Americans.
8. Fill the Medicare ‘donut hole’ and other inequities.
9. Enact my housing proposals on this website (Housing proposal).
10. Don’t vote for anyone who wants to balance the federal budget!!!!

As previously discussed, no double dip, but instead continued sequential quarter to quarter gdp growth with q4 possible better than q3 as well, helped by lower gasoline prices.

The 8.5% federal budget deficit continues to provide fundamental nominal support for GDP and the domestic credit sectors are still too weak to subtract much if they do pull back.

And it still seems to me that the chances of a euro area event reducing aggregate demand in the US are reasonably low.

US Views : OK for Now, But Slowdown Ahead

By Jan Hatzius
October 9 (Goldman Sachs)

1. After the sharp slowdown earlier in the year, the US economy seems to have grown at roughly a trend pace over the summer. Our GDP “bean count” now stands at 2½% for the third quarter, the ISM indexes are broadly stable in the low 50s, payroll employment is growing at a pace of around 100k per month, and the unemployment rate has been flat for the past three months.

2. Although the recent US growth news has generally beaten low expectations, we expect a renewed deceleration to just a ½%-1% growth pace in the next two quarters and see the risk of renewed recession at about 40%. The main reason is the turmoil in the euro area, where we switched to a recession forecast last Monday. To be sure, there is more talk in Europe about the types of action that we think would help, including a larger financial safety net for sovereign issuers (perhaps achieved by “leveraging” the EFSF), proactive bank recapitalization, and monetary easing. But policy continues to move very slowly relative to the building risks in the financial system and the deterioration in the real economy. A true turnaround in the financial situation does not yet appear to be in sight, let alone a bottoming in the real economy.

3. There are several channels through which the European crisis is likely to weigh on US growth. The impact via reduced exports is the most obvious, but it is unlikely to be very large. Exports to the Euro area account for about 2% of US GDP, so an impact of much more than 0.1-0.2 percentage point would probably require a much deeper European recession than we are forecasting. The bigger issue is the significant tightening in financial conditions and the availability of credit. Since early summer, our financial conditions index has tightened by more than 50bp, a move that might shave ½ percentage point from growth over the next year. In addition, there are some early indications of tightening credit availability including an increase in the percentage of small firms reporting in the NFIB survey that “credit was harder to get” last time they tried to borrow (the next update is due on Tuesday). Tighter credit could easily shave another ½ point or more, for a total impact from Europe on US growth of 1-1½ percentage points. Should the European recession deepen, the risk of further dislocations in the financial system and greater spillovers into the US would grow (for more on this, see Andrew Tilton’s US weekly dated September 16 at US Economics Analyst: 11/37 – Will the European Storm Cross the Atlantic?).

4. One key question is whether the European crisis—and the unsettled fiscal policy environment more generally—has caused a sufficiently large increase in uncertainty to lead companies to postpone hiring and capex decisions in a self-reinforcing manner. There is some evidence that corporate behavior may be changing, as online job ads have dropped off and the percentage of firms increasing employment in the nonmanufacturing ISM survey has declined at the most rapid pace on record over the past two months (data go back to 1997). No such deterioration was visible in Friday’s payroll numbers, but online job ads lead by a month or two and most of the ISM responses probably came after the payroll survey week, so the jury is still out.

5. The other key drag on US growth is the tightening of fiscal policy. Our baseline assumption remains extension of the employee-side payroll tax cut and passage of a small business hiring incentive; we do not assume extension of emergency unemployment benefits (although this is a close call), a further expansion of the payroll tax cut as proposed by the President, additional infrastructure spending or aid to state governments, or another foreign repatriation tax break. We also expect the Congressional “supercommittee” to agree on spending cuts and revenue increases that cover part of the mandated $1.2 trillion in savings over 10 years; the remainder will likely come via automatic cuts that take place from 2013. Overall, we view the risks around our assumption of just under 1 percentage point of fiscal drag (excluding multiplier effects) in 2012 as roughly balanced at present.

6. Even in the baseline case of no recession, we expect additional monetary easing as the Federal Reserve supplements “Operation Twist” with yet more purchases of long-term securities financed by creation of excess bank reserves (that is, additional QE). We believe that this could still boost growth a bit by further reducing the term premium in the Treasury yield curve and thereby ease financial conditions. But policymakers are clearly running into diminishing returns. If they want a bigger impact, they will probably need to supplement additional QE with changes to the Fed’s monetary policy framework. A relatively incremental version of this is the proposal by Chicago Fed President Evans to promise no monetary tightening until the unemployment rate falls back to 7%-7½% and/or inflation rises to 3%. A more radical version would be a temporary increase in the Fed’s inflation target or a move to price level or nominal GDP level targeting as discussed by Jari Stehn a couple of weeks ago (see US Economics Analyst: 11/38 – The Fed’s “Unconventional” Unconventional Options).

7. While additional easing is likely eventually, we currently do not expect a big move at the November 1-2 FOMC meeting. This is based partly on the somewhat better data and partly on Fed Chairman Bernanke’s remark in his congressional testimony that Fed officials had “no immediate plans” to ease further. Of course, since Bernanke also said that he saw the economy as “close to faltering,” it probably would not take a huge amount of new information to change his mind, but for now our best guess is that the next statement will be less eventful than its two predecessors.

As previously suggested, the Fed doing anything would cause markets to believe it’s all going bad out there.

However, the US economic news still looks like modest improvement,
so I still suspect the reaction to the Fed will be temporary, and start wearing off around noon Eastern time today.

q3 still looking up from q2 which was up from q1.

And gasoline prices now moving lower help the consumer a bit more,
so q4 should be up more than q3.

With GDP sequentially better all year, makes sense to me that earnings in general will continue to grow.

Employment not doing much as there is still some underlying productivity growth
which also helps keep unit labor costs in check.

This means stocks still be in their ugly trading range, with the lower bound somewhere around current levels.

Though potential external shocks remain.

With the ECB again writing the check today by buying Italian and Spanish bonds
the current situation is in fact operationally sustainable, and I suspect what we are seeing
is the resolution. The ECB buys as needed in conjunction with imposing austerity,
and the euro zone muddles through with flat to modestly negative growth and deficits higher than they’d like.
Note too, that the ECB buys bonds are relatively high yields, and pays relative low rates of interest on the clearing balances it creates
to make the purchases. This results in a profit for the ECB that adds to their stated capital and their stated capacities.
So as long as they keep buying there’s no default and not only no losses, but rising ECB profits.
And there’s no inflationary consequences because none of this increases actual spending by the national govts.
All it does is allow them to fund their austerity budgets as dictated by the ECB.

China continues to decelerate and so far avoid reporting a hard landing,
and while the jury is still out on that score, trade and demand growth is slowing.
They know how to increase demand but are holding back due to concerns of inflation.

Commodities are finally selling off and heading towards their marginal costs of production,
just as the textbooks describe, as global tight fiscal keeps demand in check.

And with seemingly no one in any position of responsibility understanding how their monetary systems work,
and instead carrying on as if they were all operating under some sort of fixed exchange rate constraint,
the odds of an acceleration in aggregate demand any time soon remain remote.

Initial jobless claims dropped by 9,000 to 423,000 the week ended Sept. 17, as expected. Continuing claims fell by 28,000 to 3,727,000 in the week ended Sept. 10. The four-week moving average of new claims, a more reliable indicator of the labor market’s recent performance, rose by 500 to 421,000

 
FHFA House Price Index Up 0.8 Percent in July

 
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.3 percent in August to 116.2 (2004 = 100), following a 0.6 percent increase in July and a 0.3 percent increase in June.

So much for Jeurgen’s legacy:

US Has an ‘Enormous’ Debt Problem: ECB Official

September 1 (CNBC) — A debt crisis is still gripping the developed world, European Central Bank policymaker Juergen Stark said, adding there was no alternative but for countries to take painful steps to consolidate their public finances.

“The crisis is not over. Not just in Europe is it not over, it is also not over in other regions of the world,” he said, adding the United States had an “enormous” debt problem and lacked the structures to get the problem under control.

Stark estimated the level of public debt at around 84 percent of gross domestic product for the euro zone and at a little below 100 percent of GDP for the US, according to Dow Jones newswire.

“Just consider what levels of debt we are passing on to future generations,” he said, according to DJ. “This isn’t responsible, politically, morally or ethically.”

Stark, a member of the ECB’s executive board, declined to discuss ECB monetary policy during a panel discussion at the Alpbach Forum economic conference on Thursday.

Their multi year budget surplus and subsequent crash was about 10 years ahead of ours.

Glad we learned from their mistakes…

Click here for larger graph

Right answer, wrong reason.
Whatever…

Fitch Affirms US Triple-A Rating, Outlook Stable

August 16 (Reuters) — Fitch Ratings said on Tuesday it affirmed the United States’ top-notch credit rating at Triple-A, giving the world’s largest economy a reprieve after it was downgraded by Standard & Poor’s little more than a week ago.

Fitch said the outlook for the rating was stable.

“The affirmation of the US ‘AAA’ sovereign rating reflects the fact that the key pillars of US’s exceptional creditworthiness remains intact: its pivotal role in the global financial system and the flexible, diversified and wealthy economy that provides its revenue base,” Fitch said in its statement.

“Monetary and exchange rate flexibility further enhances the capacity of the economy to absorb and adjust to ‘shocks’.”

However, Fitch warned the outlook for the rating depended on the economy and the political process in Washington to reduce the public debt.

It said an upward revision to medium to long term projections for public debt either as a result of weaker than expected economic recovery or failure of the joint committee to agree on at least $1.2 trillion in deficit reduction would likely put the United States on negative outlook.

“The rating action would most likely be a revision of the rating Outlook to Negative, which would indicate a greater than 50 percent chance of a downgrade over a two-year horizon. Less likely would be a one-notch downgrade,” the statement said.

Welcome stumbleupon! This blog has information and ideas that can change the way you think about government deficits, unemployment and the growth of this nation. We offer a free book online called the Seven Deadly Innocent Frauds. You do not need an economics degree to read this! Our mandatory readings are also an excellent resource. Thank you for visiting!

Well worth reading:

S&P decision is irrelevant

This is an opening for Moody’s to gain a competitive advantage over S&P.

Moody’s can announce that whereas any issuer of it’s own currency can always make nominal payment on a timely basis,
ability to pay is absolute and beyond question for the US government.

Therefore, when reviewing the US government’s credit rating, only willingness to pay is a consideration.

And given the recent Congressional proceedings regarding the debt ceiling,
an entirely self imposed constraint,
Moody’s is putting the US on notice with regard to willingness to pay.

From FOX Business:

Berkshire Hathaway Chairman and CEO Warren Buffett told the FOX Business Network that S&P’s downgrade of the United States’ triple-A credit rating “doesn’t make sense.”

“Think about it. The U.S., to my knowledge owes no money in currency other than the U.S. dollar, which it can print at will. Now if you’re talking about inflation, that’s a different question.”

Says it all:

Boehner-Reid Debt Plan

By Sen. Jim DeMint

July 26 — I have troubling news. I’m very careful about criticizing my party’s leaders, but what is happening in Washington right now cannot be ignored.

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) has abandoned the Cut-Cap-Balance Act and is now pushing a new plan that is nearly identical to the one proposed by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV).

The Boehner-Reid plan gives the President an immediate increase in the debt limit and only promises to cut spending in the future. It violates all three principles of the Cut-Cap-Balance Pledge because it does not substantially cut current spending, it does not truly cap future spending, and it does not require the passage of a strong Balanced Budget Amendment before raising the debt limit.

In short, I oppose the Boehner-Reid plan because it won’t balance the budget and stop the debt that is destroying our country.

The Boehner-Reid Plan

You will hear many claims about this plan over the next few days as it is pushed through the House and Senate. Some of these claims will be true, but many will be false. Here are the facts. The Boehner-Reid plan:

Provides two increases in the debt limit — $900 billion and $1.6 trillion — totaling $2.5 trillion. It gives the President an immediate $900 billion increase given that Congress does not vote to disapprove it. It gives the President another $1.6 trillion increase next year if a bill written by a new Super Committee passes both houses and becomes law.

Reduces spending by only $1.2 trillion over the next ten years. This amount won’t even come close to balancing the budget, as the debt is expected to grow by as much as $10 trillion over the next decade. The plan also reduces spending by only $6 billion in 2012. Considering that our government currently spends $10 billion a day, $6 billion is far too little to cut over the first year of the plan.

Calls for a vote on the Balanced Budget Amendment but does not require its passage. Without passage of a strong Balanced Budget Amendment, Congress will never break its addiction to spending.

Makes it virtually impossible to stop the debt limit from going up. The debt ceiling increases can only be stopped if Congress passes a resolution of disapproval and then votes to override the President’s veto with two-thirds support in the House and Senate.

Creates a new, 12-member Super Committee to write another “grand bargain” to reduce the deficit by at least $1.6 trillion. It does not, however, prohibit the Super Committee from writing a bill to raise taxes and destroy jobs. The bill can then be fast-tracked through the House and Senate with no amendments.

Why It Should Be Rejected

After reviewing the details of Boehner-Reid plan, I cannot support it.

It won’t balance the budget and stop the debt. Even if the cuts called for in the plan were real, the debt will still increase by $7 trillion over the next ten years.

It won’t protect our AAA bond rating. According to financial reports, this plan will not reduce long-term spending by enough to prevent a downgrade. If we lose our AAA rating, it will create higher interest rates and cause our debt to grow even faster.

It will likely result in higher taxes that will destroy even more jobs. The unemployment rate is over 9 percent. We cannot afford to lose more jobs when so many Americans are struggling to find work.

There are some in my party who think I should ignore the flaws of the Boehner-Reid plan, bite my tongue, and support my party’s leaders. If I thought this were a political game, that might make sense. But the future of our country is at stake, I don’t believe this plan will save it, and I have a moral obligation to say so.

The Way Forward

Fortunately, there is a much better solution.

The Cut-Cap-Balance Act would balance the budget, stop the debt, and protect our AAA bond rating. This legislation passed the House with bipartisan support but was blocked by Democrats in the Senate.

The votes in the Senate for Cut-Cap-Balance are there if Republicans stand firm. 23 Democrats in the Senate have expressed support for the Balanced Budget Amendment at some point in their careers. They’re blocking it now because they believe Republicans will blink and agree to something much less.

And that’s exactly what will happen if the Boehner-Reid plan is passed. It gives the big spenders in Washington everything they wanted — an increase in the debt limit, phony spending cuts, and a mechanism to pass tax increases.

Please call your senators today and urge them to oppose the Boehner-Reid plan and to demand passage of the Cut, Cap, Balance Act.

Respectfully,

Jim DeMint
United States Senator
Chairman, Senate Conservatives Fund

In Defense of Holding the Line

By Erick Erickson

July 26 — I’m getting beat to hell and back by conservatives for insisting the GOP hold the line on Cut, Cap, and Balance. Even here at RedState, I’m getting accused of “ideological intransigence.” Yeah, here at RedState. There’s a first time for everything.

People want a deal. People want John Boehner’s deal. People are upset with me for not liking John Boehner’s deal. People are telling me, “They only have one house, Erick. You can’t expect them to not compromise. They control nothing.”

I’ve said all along I expect a deal and a compromise. Here’s the problem and I need you to understand this from perspective, whether you agree with me or not.

See, I worked to send people to Washington, DC to solve problems, to make things right, to fix the things that were broken, and to send power back to the states. They are not doing that.

We all saw Democrats go to Washington in 2008 and take the whole thing. They controlled everything and they made everything worse. They passed a stimulus bill that killed or ruined hundreds of thousands of jobs in the private sector while growing the government. They increased dependency on the federal government. And then they passed Obamacare and socialized American healthcare. But it doesn’t fully take effect until 2014. We saw Democrats willing to lose their positions to lurch the nation left.

So we sent to Washington an army of conservatives to Washington to defund Obamacare and stop the White House. And now they’ve gotten there and have refused to fight. They promised and put in writing that they’d cut $100 billion from the federal government budget in 2011 and they ultimately cut only $38 billion. The Congressional Budget Office, when it was done scoring it, said they really were only cutting about $500 million and it would cost more money that it was worth it to actually cut those dollars.

So they said, “But we”ll stand firm on the debt ceiling. We’ll hold the line.” Everybody gave them a pass and said, “Okay, hold the line on the debt ceiling.”

Now here we are the week before the deadline. John Boehner laments they should have done it sooner, but he refused to do it sooner. The Speaker has prevented the Republicans from submitting legislation to ensure we would not default so that he would have leverage over his own members to force them to take a deal. And now they are dealing.

What is their deal?

Their deal creates another committee to look at spending — the 18th in the past 30 years. These 18 committees have never done anything except raise taxes. Their spending cuts are put off a decade and future congresses ignore them.

Boehner’s spending caps are easily waived as they’ll be rules, not laws. And they punt.

A lot of you are emailing and getting on twitter saying to take the deal. Take the compromise. Why should we compromise? That’s what we always do. Even when in the majority we compromise. The Democrats didn’t compromise on healthcare. But you people want to compromise. Republicans, whether in the majority or minority, are always compromising in favor of bigger government and imaginary spending cuts.

To make matters worse, why the hell are the Republicans the ones coming up with the plans if they only control one house of one branch of the federal government? Why are they doing it? We’re on the third damn plan. They aren’t even compromising with the Democrats. They are compromising with themselves.

The Democrats are holding their line. The GOP is splitting conservatives. The Democrats are saying “Raise the debt ceiling. Don’t cut anything.” And Boehner is saying okay and putting in cuts that take affect in year eight of ten so none of them will be around to be held accountable. Why?

The GOP came up with Paul Ryan’s plan. They passed it. They took bullets. The GOP put him in a witness protection program and dropped it like a hot potato.

So then the GOP passed Cut, Cap, and Balance and the Democrats beat them up and again accused the GOP of killing grandma. The leadership was lukewarm to it and never fought for it. And immediately after voting for it, the leadership said, “Now, let’s move on to the third plan.”

Are these all just symbolic votes? If so, I’d rather some substance. This symbolism is getting the GOP killed with nothing to show for it.

Why the hell are we on our third plan when the Democrats haven’t even come up with one plan? They haven’t even passed a budget in over 800 days. We’re in this mess because Harry Reid, in December of 2010, refused the raise the debt ceiling so the GOP could own the problem. The GOP fell into the trap with eyes wide open.

And the Republicans are falling for it yet again.

And now I’m being accused of thinking this is all a game even by long time RedState readers. I do not think this is all a game.

I know the credit rating is going to be downgraded and I don’t want it to happen. You people who want the deal are so worked up in emotion that you are ignoring all the facts. Here are the facts:

1. S&P says we need a deal of at least $4 trillion in cuts to avoid a credit rating drop.

2. Neither Boehner nor Reid get us there.

3. The only plan that gets us there is Cut, Cap, and Balance and the GOP is running away from it as fast as they can. The GOP already passed it and it just four votes shy of a majority in the Senate.

No one wants to fight. “No, we’ve already had that vote. It can’t pass the Senate,” they say.

There will be no default on August 2nd. We know it will not happen. How do we know? Because we have more money coming in each month than is needed to pay principle and interest on our national debt. And we have had multiple prior occasions where we have gone passed the deadline and the world did not suddenly end. It is all political rhetoric. Shame on you for succumbing to fear.

Barack Obama does not want to be remembered as the President on whose watch the nation defaulted. His leverage goes away on August 3rd and the GOP holds all the cards. We won’t default. We can improve our negotiating position.

The GOP could hold the line. And because they won’t hold the line, they are tanking our credit behind a bunch of smoke and mirrors. If the Democrats blame the GOP when the credit rating drops, the GOP will damn well deserve the blame if they stick with Boehner’s plan.

They could at least fight to turn the tide. They could at least hold the line.

Somewhat misleading headline.

It reflects the odds of being able to deliver a specific treasury bond to the insurer at par.

Insurance cost?against US default hits record

By Michael Mackenzie and Nicole Bullock

May 25 (FT) —Insurance Cost Against US Default Hits Record
Published: Wednesday, 27 Jul 2011 | 10:14 PM ETText Size
By: Michael Mackenzie and Nicole Bullock in New York

The cost of buying insurance against a default by the U.S. rose to a record on Wednesday, in a sign of growing unease that gridlock in Washington over raising the federal debt ceiling may result in the Treasury failing to pay interest to bondholders.

In a CDS, a buyer of protection is compensated by the seller should there be a default or missed payment, known as a “credit event”. Premiums for one-year U.S. sovereign CDS rose sharply this week and traded at about 90 basis points in London on Wednesday, overtaking the previous high set in March 2009.

In the event of a U.S. credit event, the buyers of CDS would locate the February 2039 Treasury bond, currently priced at less than $88, and deliver that to the writers of insurance and receive $100 back, or par.

And if the US debt ceiling is not extended the drop in aggregate demand (spending) will take down most of the world economy:

Headlines:
Swiss Investor Sentiment Falls to Lowest in More Than 2 Years
Euro-Area Services, Manufacturing Gauge at Lowest Since 2009
Juncker Says Selective Default for Greece Is a Possibility
German output growth slowed sharply to its weakest in two years

and this:

China’s Manufacturing May Contract for First Time in a Year

July 21 (Bloomberg) — China’s manufacturing may contract for the first time in a year as output and new orders drop, preliminary data for a purchasing managers’ index indicated.

The gauge fell to 48.9 for July from a final reading of 50.1 for June, HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics said in a statement today. The final July reading is due Aug. 1.

Today’s data adds to evidence that growth in the world’s second-largest economy is slowing on Premier Wen Jiabao’s campaign to tame consumer and property prices. The International Monetary Fund said in a report released late yesterday in Washington that risks for the economy include the threat of faster-than-expected inflation, a real-estate bubble, and bad loans from stimulus spending.

“The data are another sign that the monetary tightening measures that commenced last October are biting,” said Tim Condon, the Singapore-based head of Asia research at ING Groep NV. “If there is a concern that growth is slowing too much, past practice is that there will be a pause in the tightening.”

Stocks in China fell for a fourth day. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index closed 1 percent lower at 2,765.89, the biggest decline since July 12.

The yuan rose to a 17-year high after the central bank set the strongest reference rate since a dollar peg was scrapped exactly six years ago. It was 0.12 percent stronger at 6.4516 per dollar at 3:28 p.m. in Shanghai, the biggest advance in a week, according to the China Foreign Exchange Trade System.

Cost Pressure

Lu Ting, a Hong Kong-based economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said the HSBC survey may be “more downward- biased” than an official PMI because the average size of the businesses covered is smaller. Such companies “are under increasing pressure” from labor costs and to secure capital, Lu said. He advised investors to “not overly respond” to the data.

The government has raised interest rates five times since mid-October, boosted lenders’ reserve requirements to a record level and imposed curbs on property investment and home purchases.

Inflation, which has breached the government’s 2011 target of 4 percent every month this year, accelerated to 6.4 percent in June from a year earlier, the highest level in three years.

The IMF said in the report that China’s economy “remains on a solid footing, propelled by vigorous domestic and external demand.” The Washington-based lender’s 24 directors also “generally agreed” that a stronger yuan would help rebalance the China’s economy toward domestic demand.

Slowing Demand

HSBC’s preliminary index, known as the Flash PMI, is based on 85 percent to 90 percent of responses to a survey of executives in more than 400 companies. Output in July contracted at a faster rate, export orders shrank at a slower pace and the gauge of new orders dropped below 50, the dividing line between expansion and contraction, today’s data showed.

Manufacturing in some industries is being hit by slowing demand. Li Ning Co., China’s largest sportswear maker and retailer, said July 7 its first-half sales dropped by about 5 percent. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said July 8 that vehicle sales may increase about 5 percent this year, compared with an earlier estimate for 10 percent to 15 percent growth, due to lower demand for commercial autos.

The preliminary number has matched the final reading twice since HSBC began publishing the series in February. If it’s confirmed on Aug. 1, the index will have dropped to its lowest level since March 2009. It last fell below 50 in July 2010.