UK Archive

Wealth share, Vehicle sales, US retail sales, US trade, German trade, HK index, UK, US Consumer credit

The ‘labor market’ is not a ‘fair game’ as people need to work to eat, and business only needs to hire if it likes the return prospects, so real wages should be expected to remain depressed without some form of outside support, which broke down in the 80’s with globalization policies, and ...Read More

US factory orders, Euro zone retail sales, UK services, ISM NY, Lumber prices

Global retreat underway? US ISM New York Index at 7-Month Low in January ...Read More

Trade, Factory orders, Vehicle sales, UK service sector, German PMI

Deficit growing despite tariffs. Could be J curve effect: Highlights A slight 0.1 percent decline in exports and a slight 0.2 percent gain in imports made for a sizable 1.7 percent deepening in the nation’s trade deficit in October to $55.5 billion which is just outside Econoday’s consensus range. The deficit with ...Read More

Personal income and spending, GDP, Trump meeting, North Korea tests

Personal income growth continues to be depressed, which tends to keep spending down as well over time, though this month it had a nice one time increase due to the hurricanes, and the drop in the personal savings rate tells me it’s entirely unsustainable. Also the low inflation readings also support the ...Read More

Existing home sales, Oil rig count

Now down year over year, and in line with the deceleration in bank mortgage lending: Highlights Existing home sales posted their first gain in four months, rising 0.7 percent in September to a 5.390 million annualized rate that is near Econoday’s top forecast. Hurricane effects are hard to gauge with the National ...Read More

JOLTS, Redbook sales, Rig count, Credit check, NK comment, PMC jersey

Openings higher than hires tells me employers don’t want to pay up, which is also suggested by low wage growth: Highlights In the latest indications of strong, tight conditions in the labor market, job openings rose to a higher-than-expected 6.170 million in July for a 0.9 percent increase from June. Hirings also ...Read More

CPI, Retail sales, Industrial production, Hotel stats, rail week, US budget deficit, Asset price chart,Trump comments

The Fed continues to fail to meet it’s target. They just need a little more time… ;) And coincidentally this is inline with the credit deceleration as previously discussed: Highlights In what is one of the very weakest 4-month stretch in 60 years of records, core consumer prices could manage only a ...Read More

Industrial production, Housing starts, Forecasts, Loan growth

Very modest growth continues from the lows following the crash in oil capex, and note that the numbers are not inflation adjusted: The painfully slow recovery following the crash continues, and note the numbers are not population adjusted: Trumped up expectations fading: Forecasters Lower Growth Outlook as Hopes for Quick Stimulus Fade ...Read More

PMI, Earnings, euro zone holdings, oil related comments

Trumped up expectations cooling a bit? PMI Manufacturing Index Flash Services: Initial earnings estimates have tended to fall: This is extraordinary, as their liabilities are most likely predominately euro denominated, which is what I’d call a ‘fundamental short’ position. That is, this has been part of the ‘portfolio shifting’ that has been ...Read More

Mortgage purchase apps, Tax reform, Trump comments

Purchase applications seemed to have, at best, leveled off a what remains very depressed levels: Revenue neutral won’t do the trick, and since the tax cuts are likely to be lower multiple than any spending cuts it could slow things down: Taxpayers should expect to see revenue-neutral tax reform as early as ...Read More