UK Archive

Retail sales, Consumer sentiment, NY manufacturing survey

Gone flat post covid, adjusted for inflation: The post covid slump continues, and now there are war disruptions: US Consumer Sentiment Lowest since 2011 The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US fell to 59.7 in March of 2022 from 62.8 in February, below market forecasts of 61.4, preliminary estimates showed. ...Read More

Services pmi, German survey, UK retail sales, oil, new home sales

Pretty much the whole world had a covid dip, bounce, and most recently a retreat as the economy appears to be rapidly decelerating as unemployment benefits expired and what’s left of the new fiscal spending is relatively small and keeps getting pushed out: Crude oil is another story. There was a covid ...Read More

Rig count, US Services, UK services, Euro zone services

Oil capex collapsing: Service sectors collapsing: ...Read More

US PMI’s, KC Fed, Euro area services, UK services, Germany services and GDP

Tariffs taking their toll and no end in sight as global deceleration continues for both goods and services. These surveys are up a bit this month but still very low and too soon to suggest a reversal: Note how this blipped up last month but then resumed the downtrend: Deceleration resumes after ...Read More

Bank lending, UK, China, India

The private sector tends to be pro cyclical- tightening as the economy slows, thereby making it worse: ...Read More

Existing home sales, UK, Euro area budget and exports

Rolling over: Fiscal this tight means they are entirely dependent on exports for growth, and exports have been collapsing with US tariff policy: From the ECB: “Currently extra-euro area imports and exports of goods and services amount to around half of euro area GDP.” ...Read More

ISM services, Durable goods orders, NYC, Trump comments

The service sector is in full retreat: Contraction: Trump says China should investigate the Bidens, doubles down on Ukraine probe ...Read More

UK, Germany, Italy, India, Japan

Just a partial recap of today’s releases as the tariff induced global trade collapse continues: ...Read More

UK, China, Philli Fed index, Flipper lending

Still contracting: This indicator is flashing recession again. Last time this happened a few years ago the numbers were subsequently revised higher: Not a good sign: Lending to house flippers hits a 13-year high as prices and competition heat up ...Read More

ECB trade comments, US rates, UK, Germany, France, Japan

Someone else agrees with me about the tariffs and the global trade collapse: CNBC: The trade war is weighing ‘like a big, dark cloud’ on the global economy, says Christine Lagarde. And this would function like a tax increase: Bloomberg: President Trump Doubles Down on Call for Negative Interest Rates. Today’s tariff ...Read More