Uncategorized Archive

Dodge index, Euro area lending, China investment, Wholesale trade

This is reflected in the deceleration of commercial real estate lending: From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Stumbles in July The Dodge Momentum Index fell in July, dropping 3.3% to 135.0 (2000=100) from its revised June reading of 139.6. The Momentum Index is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) ...Read More

Small business survey, JOLTS

No sign of Trumped up expectations fading here: Hires fell, which most are saying indicates a lack of supply of workers. But the low wage growth and low participation rates tell me it’s more likely about low aggregate demand: Highlights Job openings rose sharply in June, to 6.163 million from 5.702 million ...Read More

Consumer credit

Less than expected as the deceleration continues. I read this as reflecting a drop in consumer spending. The savings rate has been down, and the personal income curve has been bent lower as well, and retail sales have also slowed. So it can all be read this way: The consumer has less ...Read More

Credit check

Possibly bottoming at much lower rates of growth: Still heading lower: Is the deceleration in borrowing reflecting a deceleration in spending? ...Read More

Employment, Trade, M2, Public employment, Rig count

More than the entire gain in civilian employment seems to have been via part time work: Highlights The second half of the year opens on a strong note as nonfarm payrolls rose 209,000 in July, far above Econoday’s consensus for 178,000. The unemployment rate moved 1 tenth lower to 4.3 percent while ...Read More

Factory orders, ISM services, China investments, ISM NY

Up nicely but not so good excluding aircraft orders, which are highly volatile: Highlights Factory orders surged 3.0 percent in June but were skewed higher by a more than doubling in monthly aircraft orders. Excluding transportation equipment, a reading that excludes aircraft, orders actually fell 0.2 percent in the month following a ...Read More

ADP, Euro inflation, Mtg purchase apps, Loan officer survey, Saudi output, jobs

Highlights ADP sees the private payroll reading in Friday’s employment report coming in at 178,000. But ADP has been wild lately, evident in its sharp 33,000 upward revision to June which is now at 191,000. Econoday expectations are calling for 175,000 in private payroll growth in Friday’s report and 178,000 in total ...Read More

Construction spending, Personal income and spending, Vehicle sales

The chart is consistent with the deceleration in real estate lending as previously discussed: Highlights June’s construction spending report has much in common with June’s personal income and outlays released earlier this morning: lack of any apparent life. Spending fell an unexpected 1.3 percent in June with a 3 tenths upward revision ...Read More

Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed, Pending home sales, Swiss reserve tax

The PMC annual bike ride is this weekend, so much appreciate that those of you who haven’t yet done so get your donations in, thanks, and if any of you will be there, let me know and I’ll be looking for you! http://www2.pmc.org/profile/WM0015 Settling down a bit: Better than expected: Better than ...Read More

GDP personal income, Employment growth, Agricultural states performance, Rent growth, Chief of staff

In line with low aggregate demand: http://econintersect.com/a/blogs/blog1.php/gdp-growth-seems-to-be-normalizing As mentioned above, real per-capita annual disposable income dropped materially (by $74 per annum). At the same time the household savings rate was reported to have dropped by -0.1% from a sharp downward revision (-1.2%) to the prior quarter. It is important to keep this ...Read More