Uncategorized Archive

Industrial production, Trump comments

Worse than expected, but modest growth from depressed levels. Highlights The Federal Reserve inadvertently released what is a weak July industrial production report about a 1/2 hour early this morning. Headline production rose 0.2 percent vs expectations for 0.3 percent with manufacturing output showing outright contraction, at minus 0.1 percent vs Econoday’s ...Read More

Housing starts, Alt right study

Lower than expected, and, as always starts are ultimately determined by permits, which have been slowing as per the chart, which also reflects the deceleration in mortgage lending over the last 6 months: Highlights Housing starts couldn’t hold the 1.200 million annualized line in July, falling to a lower-than-expected 1.155 million. The ...Read More

Retail sales, Import and export prices, Business inventories, Housing index

The chart still looks weak to me. Shale boom in 2014 pumped it up, and then reversing with the shale bust, and still looking suspect after January when consumer credit further decelerated: Highlights The consumer was back in the stores last month in a July retail sales report, headlined by a 0.6 ...Read More

Credit check

This kind of deceleration has always been associated with recession: Bending the curve: Actual lending continues to decelerate: So for the last 6 months the Fed is seeing a steep decline in credit growth and a softening in price pressures, wage growth, employment growth, auto sales, home sales and permits, retail sales, ...Read More

CPI, Oil and gas production, Hotels

So the Fed is failing to meet its inflation target, wage growth remains weak, and all measures of credit expansion have been decelerating for more than 6 months: Highlights Consumer prices remain very soft, failing to match what were modest Econoday expectations for July. Total prices edged 1 tenth higher in July ...Read More

PMC 2017

Thanks to all for your support for this year’s PMC! Looking like $48 million will be donated to Dana Farber for cancer research this year! Not too late if you haven’t contributed… ;) http://www2.pmc.org/profile/WM0015 I make my personal donation as a sponsor to insure every $ you donate goes to cancer research ...Read More

Dodge index, Euro area lending, China investment, Wholesale trade

This is reflected in the deceleration of commercial real estate lending: From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Stumbles in July The Dodge Momentum Index fell in July, dropping 3.3% to 135.0 (2000=100) from its revised June reading of 139.6. The Momentum Index is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) ...Read More

Small business survey, JOLTS

No sign of Trumped up expectations fading here: Hires fell, which most are saying indicates a lack of supply of workers. But the low wage growth and low participation rates tell me it’s more likely about low aggregate demand: Highlights Job openings rose sharply in June, to 6.163 million from 5.702 million ...Read More

Consumer credit

Less than expected as the deceleration continues. I read this as reflecting a drop in consumer spending. The savings rate has been down, and the personal income curve has been bent lower as well, and retail sales have also slowed. So it can all be read this way: The consumer has less ...Read More

Credit check

Possibly bottoming at much lower rates of growth: Still heading lower: Is the deceleration in borrowing reflecting a deceleration in spending? ...Read More