Uncategorized Archive

Durable goods orders, Vehicle sales, Credit check

Nothing impressing me here, as per the chart: Highlights Durable goods orders came in as billed with a steep aircraft-related decline for the headline, at minus 6.8 percent, contrasting with solid gains for ex-transportation at 0.5 percent and core capital goods (nondefense ex-aircraft) at 0.4 percent. A special plus in the report, ...Read More

Tax proposals, New home sales, PMI surveys, Architecture Billings Index

Seems to me the highlighted proposals will reduce spending more than the cut in tax rates will increase spending: Trump’s team and lawmakers making strides on tax reform plan Aug 22 (Politico) — President Trump’s top aides and congressional leaders have made significant strides in shaping a tax overhaul. There is broad ...Read More

House prices, Redbook retail sales, NY Fed survey

Home prices may be softening, but too soon to tell: Highlights The FHFA house price index came in at a very soft 0.1 percent increase in June, well short of Econoday’s consensus for 0.5 percent and low estimate of 0.3 percent. This is both good news and bad news, as slowing price ...Read More

Credit check, Rig count, Consumer sentiment, Romney comment, Pollak comment

More of same: More evidence this has stabilized and maybe reversed: Expectations up, current conditions down: Highlights Consumer sentiment unexpectedly burst higher in the August flash but the results, warns the report, do not fully reflect the impact of the weekend’s violence in Virginia. The index rose to 97.6 which is well ...Read More

Industrial production, Trump comments

Worse than expected, but modest growth from depressed levels. Highlights The Federal Reserve inadvertently released what is a weak July industrial production report about a 1/2 hour early this morning. Headline production rose 0.2 percent vs expectations for 0.3 percent with manufacturing output showing outright contraction, at minus 0.1 percent vs Econoday’s ...Read More

Housing starts, Alt right study

Lower than expected, and, as always starts are ultimately determined by permits, which have been slowing as per the chart, which also reflects the deceleration in mortgage lending over the last 6 months: Highlights Housing starts couldn’t hold the 1.200 million annualized line in July, falling to a lower-than-expected 1.155 million. The ...Read More

Retail sales, Import and export prices, Business inventories, Housing index

The chart still looks weak to me. Shale boom in 2014 pumped it up, and then reversing with the shale bust, and still looking suspect after January when consumer credit further decelerated: Highlights The consumer was back in the stores last month in a July retail sales report, headlined by a 0.6 ...Read More

Credit check

This kind of deceleration has always been associated with recession: Bending the curve: Actual lending continues to decelerate: So for the last 6 months the Fed is seeing a steep decline in credit growth and a softening in price pressures, wage growth, employment growth, auto sales, home sales and permits, retail sales, ...Read More

CPI, Oil and gas production, Hotels

So the Fed is failing to meet its inflation target, wage growth remains weak, and all measures of credit expansion have been decelerating for more than 6 months: Highlights Consumer prices remain very soft, failing to match what were modest Econoday expectations for July. Total prices edged 1 tenth higher in July ...Read More

PMC 2017

Thanks to all for your support for this year’s PMC! Looking like $48 million will be donated to Dana Farber for cancer research this year! Not too late if you haven’t contributed… ;) http://www2.pmc.org/profile/WM0015 I make my personal donation as a sponsor to insure every $ you donate goes to cancer research ...Read More