Uncategorized Archive

Factory orders, Euro charts, Oil prices

Manufacturing continues to muddle through: Highlights There’s really only good news in the July factory orders report where the headline, at minus 3.3 percent, reflects a slowing in what were strong prior gains for aircraft orders. The best news is a 6 tenths upward revision to core capital goods orders (nondefense ex-air) ...Read More

Misc. charts, Cryptocoin hedge funds, Bank loans

Interesting charts: Over 50 hedge funds attracting investors who want to go long bitcoin and the rest. Helps explain why the prices are going up even as there is no intrinsic or conversion value whatsoever, which, presuming that to be the case, also means that at some point the mania ends and ...Read More

Employment, Construction spending, Auto sales, Tax plan and debt ceiling

Weaker than expected, downward revisions, depressed earnings growth and participation rate. And note how the year over year growth has been going down now in, for all practical purposes a straight line, for over 2 1/2 years, when the shale boom ended and oil capex collapsed: Highlights August payroll growth, though solid, ...Read More

Personal income and spending, Pending home sales

Personal income growth remains weal as per the charts, which also showed a sharp drop in the personal savings rate, which generally forecasts reductions in spending: Highlights Vital signs for the consumer are strong but inflation is completely lifeless, based on a mixed personal income & outlays report for July. Income is ...Read More

Mtg applications, GDP, Personal savings, Corporate profits, ADP employment, Federal tax reciepts

Purchase applications were down again, as housing weakness reflects the drop in the growth of mortgage credit: Highlights Low mortgage rates are failing to entice home buyers, whose activity declined for the third straight week according to the Mortgage Bankers’ Association. Purchase applications for home mortgages fell a seasonally adjusted 3.0 percent ...Read More

Trade, SUV’s, Redbook retail sales, Trump and Harvey

No ‘improvement’ here: Highlights Third-quarter GDP is off to a slow start, at least for international trade in goods where the July trade gap widened more than $1 billion to $65.1 billion. Exports fell 1.3 percent and were pulled down by a sharp fall in vehicles and also consumer goods which are ...Read More

Durable goods orders, Vehicle sales, Credit check

Nothing impressing me here, as per the chart: Highlights Durable goods orders came in as billed with a steep aircraft-related decline for the headline, at minus 6.8 percent, contrasting with solid gains for ex-transportation at 0.5 percent and core capital goods (nondefense ex-aircraft) at 0.4 percent. A special plus in the report, ...Read More

Tax proposals, New home sales, PMI surveys, Architecture Billings Index

Seems to me the highlighted proposals will reduce spending more than the cut in tax rates will increase spending: Trump’s team and lawmakers making strides on tax reform plan Aug 22 (Politico) — President Trump’s top aides and congressional leaders have made significant strides in shaping a tax overhaul. There is broad ...Read More

House prices, Redbook retail sales, NY Fed survey

Home prices may be softening, but too soon to tell: Highlights The FHFA house price index came in at a very soft 0.1 percent increase in June, well short of Econoday’s consensus for 0.5 percent and low estimate of 0.3 percent. This is both good news and bad news, as slowing price ...Read More

Credit check, Rig count, Consumer sentiment, Romney comment, Pollak comment

More of same: More evidence this has stabilized and maybe reversed: Expectations up, current conditions down: Highlights Consumer sentiment unexpectedly burst higher in the August flash but the results, warns the report, do not fully reflect the impact of the weekend’s violence in Virginia. The index rose to 97.6 which is well ...Read More